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IBM or human hope?

via:博客园     time:2015/12/17 23:30:58     readed:1993

If there is no York London heights laboratory, IBM invented these things may not be born: punchcards, American social security system, hard disk, SABRE global travel booking system, bar code, the first human lunar landing

Since then, the core business of IBM in different period has been represented as punch machine, watches, large machines and PC, and now, IBM became the annual income of nearly $93 billion enterprise software company, to provide more efficient information technology and business solutions for similar companies.

However, the rise of the giant, has been a continuous 14 quarters of revenue decline, the stock fell more than 5 to five year low, behind Google, apple, and Microsoft, Oracle and HP and other new and old giants. Critics believe that the transformation of the IBM technology came too late, such as cloud computing. That the company has almost become the inevitable decay of the news public opinion at leisure.

Some of these IBM response to the prophecy, is located in the northern part of New York in a mountain, looks like a three storey building to start their own research inside the ufo. The architect of this building is Saarinen Eero, his design of the United States Jefferson National Memorial Chorten, New York John Fitzgerald Kennedy International Airport, the United States Dulles International Airport, have become the landmark of the organic function of architecture.

The building is located in York heights, IBM Watson Research Center (Watson)

In recent years, the most famous results from this laboratory have to be counted by Watson (Waston)

However, Watson is not the top of the IBM project. In York, the research of IBM heights, materials scientists, physicists, chemists, electrical engineers are engaged in dozens of projects, including artificial intelligence, atomic size final or comparable to the human brain to a computer chip to bring about change of carbon nanotubes and quantum computer. These sounds of make groundless accusations of projects have been carried out for several years, some will continue for decades. If IBM scientists can get a sense of a breakthrough on these issues, the use of computer power to improve human wisdom is not a problem.

The reason for the IBM to carry out these projects is the reason for the invention of a punch card, hard drive, and all other things: patient, methodical and precise scientific research. 2014, IBM optical research and development costs of $5 billion 500 million. Unlike some modern fashion giant IBM launched a project never gorgeous pomp, not the designers regarded as faith, not to launch the next generation of consumer level big kill

But the question is, is it enough to do so today?

Watson Watson is very cool to the things you can do.

In a recent meeting held in New York on Watson, a Danish man said:

Watson, of course, is cool.

Watson is famous for eight years ago. In February 2011, Watson research center of the medieval church was transformed into "the dangerous edge" scenery. Watson is scheduled to challenge the two human players in the game when the most successful

At that time, Watson and the size of a master bedroom, a refrigerator sized box is it

Now Watson has moved to New York, Manhattan East village. Its

Watson's core work is to extract the views and meanings from the data in the way of human communication. It can be through the full reading and vocabulary comprehension, generate an analysis model in a few minutes, and with the increase of age (the growth of service), Watson can in every information scanning in learning more clever.

This year, Luo Ruilan launched the advisory business in charge of cognitive computing and business applications, and plans to hire 2000 people around the advisory team, which is part of the function is to help customers understand how to use Watson. Now, the Department's business has covered a wide variety of areas, from the analysis of corporate mergers and acquisitions, to football selection, and even wine and food. With every iteration, Watson has also been used to prevent cancer, answer the tax problem in singapore. Now, Watson, you can analyze your character, and then suggest a suitable for your dinner program, etc.

Watson applied to the diagnosis of disease, the huge analysis of the function of the early commitment to deliver. Watson team and CVS chain pharmacies, to commemorate the Caitlin Sloan Cancer Center for cooperation, and the acquisition of medical imaging company Healthcare Merge, to develop their own medical diagnostic ability. Watson team director High Rob said, Watson can fill the doctor can not achieve medical gaps.

IBM forward all kinds of enterprises to open API, let startups and venture capital backed companies to established companies can use the natural language processing, computer vision and Watson's cognitive ability to participate in the development of App related. IBM to do so, is to show the strength of Watson to the outside world, and to recruit API buyers. DDT analyst Rajeev Ronanki said, Watson, the final destination is to is used to drive other IBM services, such as data storage software platform and infrastructure management.

In York, heights, researchers are still exploring artificial intelligence computer system. However, this is not the Watson. AI's IBM works with a new name: Celia.

Celia can replace the environmental awareness intelligent assistant. In IBM's marketing team, the researchers focused on integrating Celia into the work function of the company's work flow.

Celia's system is essentially the use of Watson's concept, then add a human element on the basis of. In most cases, interaction and Watson still need to input commands on the computer. Celia means that it will mimic the human communication object. For example, an enterprise executive can ask Celia a question like this:

It is not hard to imagine how Celia can be applied in various fields. For example, a doctor can discuss the diagnostic analysis of the Celia, and receive the answer to the Celia synthetic million medical data. Researchers can use Celia's data to analyze the development of new drugs, or plan a new city, etc., the customer service hotline can also be replaced by machines.

In short, Celia is just like a movie "she" capable of digital assistant, but it does not really have the desire to love or want to escape the tendency.

Computer like us thinking

However, even though no matter how advanced, Watson and Celia are traditional and computer logic.

In August 2014, IBM announced that they had developed a new type of chip that mimics the human brain.

Although today's chips have been quite useful in the analysis of information, but these new types of chips are more suitable for the vast amount of information in search mode

Modha said his goal was to build a shoebox inside the brain, contains more than 10 billion synapses, power consumption is lower than kw

Regardless of whether its researchers are working on this goal clearly, IBM may have been walking on the way to build a world of artificial intelligence systems that have never appeared in the world. But in the present, the above calculation ability is only a mere fiction.

Celia may just be a dream.

What is the world going to be if it is replaced by the future?

Gil IBM, vice president of research and development, said Dario, the company is trying to maintain the Moore's law on two fronts.

IBM on the one hand, the formation of a perfect team is committed to reducing the chip manufacturing process, so the future processing capacity of the chip will become more powerful. On the other hand, IBM announced in the field of chip manufacturing technology has made a breakthrough progress: the development of the first chip processor using 7Nm process. In early this year, Intel launched its new 14nm process chip, and hope that in 2017 he launched 10 nanometer chip.

But by the end of the last, human beings can't make use of silicon to make a more micro chip. Khare IBM, director of research at Mukesh semiconductor, said his team will try to narrow the chip process to 5 nm, but it is extremely difficult.

Semiconductor industry market is about $335 billion, almost entirely based on silicon chip. So what would the world be like if Silicon Valley stopped making computer chips on the next day?

Scientists are trying to use carbon nanotube technology to make smaller chip assemblies in the Heights Yorktown's physics laboratory. These nanotubes are hollow cylindrical structure, the wall is composed of a single layer of carbon atoms, and connected with the hexagonal lattice, about ten thousand times smaller than human hair. It is understood that the IBM has been studied in this field for more than 20 years. Carbon nanotubes are more stable than silicon materials, and the thermal insulation is also very good, and can provide faster connections. That is to say, the new material will continue to maintain the validity of Moore's law for several decades.

In early October, IBM announced that they had solved a major obstacle in the development of carbon nanotubes: how to connect the nanotubes with other parts of the microprocessor better, so that they can be conductive when they are in operation. Previously, high resistance can prevent current flow, but the IBM approach is to connect the end of the tube with the metal molybdenum. The connection itself is very small, but it is the key to make the chip circuit. This technology can be used to make the three generation of chips, but because of the smaller, the resistance will become larger and more difficult to use as the electronic components become smaller, IBM's material experts said.

In addition to replacing the silicon chip, IBM also hopes to use the carbon nano technology to pave the way for the nano robot

However, this can not be done overnight. The nano robot is still in the research stage, the distance can be put into practice and there are many decades.

IBMIBM 还是人类的希望吗?

Quantum leap

All of these studies are designed to make computers smarter, more friendly and less power consumption. But the computer of the IBM study is a completely different concept.

The traditional computer is basically a collection of billions of transistors, it is the operation of the unit. Bit is the smallest unit of a computer in the computer. When we enter the computer in any of the letters of the alphabet, the letter takes up a byte, which is made up of bits. Every letter, number, message, photo, file of a computer is made up of a series of bits.

However, if a transistor contains only a single atom, then the concept of operation is completely different. According to the rules of quantum physics, the input and output states of quantum computers are usually the superposition states. Ordinary digital computers run on a binary system of 0 and 1, which is called

At the same time, senior vice president of IBM, said that the current team has conducted a wide range of quantum computer encryption system. But at present, the comparison of the practical value of the quantum system

However, the difficulty of building such a machine can be imagined. One of the great challenges that scientists are trying to control the quantum computer is to control or remove quantum coherence.

Patience is a virtue

For IBM, these technologies take so long time to produce results is not weak, it represents a kind of power.

The nanotube team, Tulevski, said he had never felt any work pressure in the study of quantum computing.

Meyerson IBM, chief executive of Bernie Yorktown, said the study of the Heights is not a facade:

IBMIBM 还是人类的希望吗?

Science can save IBM?

So, this research department can give IBM the revenue and stock price to bring the answer? We may have landed in Watson's access interface, using a IBM manufacturing, driven by carbon nanotube quantum computers in the future?

Former "Forbes" columnist Cringely Robert said:

Cringely believes that IBM is not likely to go out of their way, and the company is experiencing a decline in revenue is only a prelude to the storm. Cringely in its "2014: IBM's decline and recession," said Lou Gerstner IBM, a former CEO:

Cringely for IBM

DDT analyst Ronanki said that people in the next five to seven years have great faith

Perhaps the ultimate IBM can provide such a look convincing results: the company's situation is not optimistic in the short term. IBM's latest quarterly earnings report lower than Wall Street expectations, analysts expect the company will continue to usher in a fiscal year revenue fell. In October, Daryanani Amit, a capital analyst at Royal Bank of Canada, said the company is on the right track, and that the company is on the right track, with a focus on Luo Ruilan's emphasis.

In short, Watson's ability to transform into the next few years before the capital strength, blue giants executives must ensure that the company in the short term to bet on cloud computing and IT security and other areas to quickly increase revenue, to Watson, Celia R & D to win time.

These principles are also suitable for the quantum computation of IBM. Crack code, construction is not likely to secure computer networks, or to make the air traffic control more easily and efficiently are just out of the primary stage of the study, the actual distance is officially used for a long distance. Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor Aaronson Scott pointed out that, like the traditional computer to simulate the air flow around the aircraft or the physical flow around the wind tunnel laboratory, quantum computer will replace the future of the particle accelerator. So the problem is that when a quantum computer can accomplish such a feat, IBM is still able to get the profit.

Back in 1961, when Watson was built, the architect asked to plant 1000 evergreen plants in the open space, the building of the hall is almost entirely built by the local Weiss Chester big pebble. Durable, prosperous, which is the architect's vision. What about IBM's own development?

Now IBM's R & D center is still filled with a quiet atmosphere, the whole building has a quiet force. Scientists have stepped on the linoleum floor, from a laboratory to run another lab, the guard and security personnel in their own positions, the background of the host hum, the old clock kept ticking.


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