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Looking decade Zuckerberg: 2026 Facebook is what?

via:博客园     time:2016/7/23 12:30:41     readed:1592

扎克伯格的未来十年展望:2026扎克伯格的未来十年展望:2026 年的 Facebook 会是什么样?

[Editor's note] Tencent Technology industry media The Verge of Mark & ​​middot; Zuckerberg had an exclusive interview, since Facebook is limited to the interview only 10 years to discuss the future prospects of the company, so reporters and talked about Zuckerberg Facebook obstacles when building Internet infrastructure faced, Facebook hopes in Augmented reality (AR) R & D in play, and why virtual reality (VR) is likely to redefine the next generation of computing. They also talked about Zuckerberg to build artificial intelligence (AI) housekeeper progress and the use of robots to operational problems encountered when the oven. Throughout the interview is divided into eight themes, which are:

1 Let everyone in the world access

2 Aquila UAV launch

3 Terragraph project

4 Free Basics of lessons

5 Zuckerberg and artificial intelligence robot butler

The next six Chatterbot

7 Facebook efforts in the field of virtual reality

8 challenges in the field of Augmented Reality

The following is the original content:

In many ways, 2016 is on Facebook extraordinary year. Today, there are 1.65 billion people each month use the Facebook service, the title of the world's largest non-social networking platform perfectly. Moreover, with the precise targeting advertising mechanism, Facebook's advertising business is also growing rapidly, exceeding analysts' expectations. In April this year, CEO Mark & ​​middot; Zuckerberg announced the Facebook decade roadmap determination aggressively artificial intelligence (AI) and virtual reality (VR) to the mainstream audience, the company at the forefront of computer science position.

Now, however, these days, when Zuckerberg met with national leaders, mentioned the most is the most basic Internet access problems. August 2013, Facebook launched Internet.org, because Zuckerberg hope that more people in backward areas of access to the Internet. Since then, Facebook has made significant progress in this regard. They released an open source telecommunications infrastructure templates, hoping to reduce the cost of data transmission; they tested Terragraph projects, which use millimeter wave technology in data transfer than the current general Wi-Fi is 10 times faster. In addition, they continue to expand the Free Basics project, though encountered some setbacks (Indian regulators Jinting this project, because the project is determined by the Facebook What is included in the service in violation of the net neutrality principle.)

Facebook's Aquila UAVs also made progress. The project aims to design and build UAV, let them 6500 feet in the air for millions of people to provide Internet access services. Facebook idea is to let Aquila after launch the UAV can stay in the air every 90 days, to assume the task of transferring data, if this vision can be achieved, then the company would have a unusually strong ability: let the whole people in the world access to the Internet. (Google also has a similar project, called Project Titan. Google is currently working with Facebook to resolve the problem together UAV regulatory).

Zuckerberg believes that if you do not use the Internet services to everyone, or no existing Internet access services were greatly improved, then you can not build a high level of artificial intelligence and virtual reality services.

The interview discussed prospects for the next 10 years, Zuckerberg on the company, there are still a lot of problems not covered. For example, who is responsible for the construction of infrastructure? Who pay for data traffic? After all, so that 7 billion people access to the Internet, which is Facebook's core advertising business is also a big plus. Facebook this project as a pure public good to promote, the relationship between it and the company's business strategy but refuses to talk about, it is easy to suspect an ulterior motive behind Facebook.

But in the interview, Zuckerberg explains why he spent so much energy on networking project. & Ldquo; the Internet does bring a lot of opportunities, research shows that in every 10 people on the Internet, there is an out of poverty, it will create new jobs. & Rdquo; he said.

Zuckerberg said that, while direct investment in education and health is very important, & ldquo; but I think a lot of people did not notice, if you live in a small town, no decent school, then the Internet is that you can actually get the best choice for a good education, & rdquo; he said. & Ldquo; If you live where there is no decent doctor, then look it up on the Internet the disease symptoms, may be your best solution. & Rdquo;

Zuckerberg said, Facebook regardless of the direction of future development, the world is connected to its basic starting point. & Ldquo; I hope we can make progress in this area, it is our generation can do to improve the world people live a good thing. & Rdquo;

The 45-minute interview, including the contents of eight parts:

1 Let everyone in the world access

Q: In order to allow everyone in the world online, you made a huge investment. What is the biggest challenge?

Zuckerberg: The company's mission is to make the world more open, more interconnected level. To some extent, this means the Internet to help people, so that they can care and human contact. Facebook established for 10 years, has become a large company with a number of resources that can be used to solve more fundamental technical problems, for example, more than half of the world on the Internet who are not online.

扎克伯格的十年展望:2026扎克伯格的十年展望:2026 年的 Facebook 是什么样?

For four billion people have no access to the Internet, there are three major challenges: the first is there is no problem with the network & mdash; & mdash; even if you have a cell phone, there is no network can be, there are 1.6 billion people this is the case; the first two negative issues not afford the cost of Internet access, the solution is to reduce data charges, such as Facebook launched Telecom Infra project project, called TIP, using open source software designed to help the telecommunications industry to save money, thereby reducing consumer data flow rates, another way is to improve the app's efficiency and reduce the amount of data transmission; the third is there is no awareness of Internet issues. Many people do not realize the value of the Internet has brought, even if they have the equipment, network, or Internet access at affordable cost, the third question is the most difficult to solve, so the company launched this project Free Basics, allowing users You can use some free Internet services

For the first question. If you let the carriers according to the conventional method, so that 1.6 billion people currently have no network available on the Internet, then the cost would be too expensive. All need to use less expensive methods. We can think of solar UAVs, they are like floating in the air cellular towers, it is cheaper to build, one can fly in the air for several months, continue to provide Internet access to the ground.

If I started the founder of Facebook, you told me that one day we will develop the plane, I definitely think you're crazy. However, this is for us to let everyone in the world have access to the Internet is a very important mission. Our UAVs in its first test flight in the air for half an hour, it really is a very important milestone.

2 Aquila UAV launch

扎克伯格的十年展望:2026扎克伯格的十年展望:2026 年的 Facebook 是什么样?

Q: June 28, Aquila was the first test flight. You were also present, what do you think?

A: The successful test flight, is not it? I mean, in the first attempt, it was always out of some situation will be. I arrived at the scene to make the team a lot of people nervous. I think this is the company's development process is an important milestone, so I have to personally appear.

It flies really slow. When people design an airplane, most of the time, are designed to transport people or goods from one place to another place. So the aircraft is flying too slowly no good. However, if your goal is to stay a longer period of time in the air, and you want the energy consumption of the aircraft as possible & mdash; & mdash; this means to fly as slowly as possible, while not falling from the sky .

Soon, the team will test unmanned aircraft equipped with laser communication system, if successful, will create a large number of unmanned aerial vehicles, and telecommunications companies and governments make the city suburbs, rural areas and disaster areas and other places with no connection now people can access.

Q: In the next few years, how you wish to progress Aquila project made?

A: The manufacturing cost of the UAV will be reduced. I think the next day, in the outskirts of the city have a place for human habitation, there will be thousands of solar UAV flying in the air, so the Internet will become more popular and cheaper. And I think, in their help, there will be over one billion people from access to the Internet. This is an early milestone, but it is also a very important milestone. You probably did not think would do something like facebook & mdash; & mdash; because we are not the airline, but I feel that we are becoming an airline.

Q: How do you put so much of the aircraft into space?

A: We do not intend to build a network, we want to do is to prove the feasibility of this concept, then think of ways to license the technology for others to use, or available to everyone free of charge, so since, telecommunications companies, government, non-profit organizations, relief agencies will be able to provide all of these technologies. This is my vision.

3 Terragraph project

扎克伯格的十年展望:2026扎克伯格的十年展望:2026 年的 Facebook 是什么样?

Q: Facebook Terragraph year also launched a project aimed at using millimeter wave technology to provide useful local cellular network. Later this year, Terragraph will be used in San Jose, California put into use, you hope it will produce what kind of effect?

A: I think, 5G and Terragraph to increase bandwidth and reduce latency is very important. If you want to live video, no matter where you are, we want to be ready to immediately live, interact with others, which is very important. We attach great importance to VR, which can bring an immersive feeling, and to do this, the network must be able to instantly download a lot of information and can not be delayed.

Most people talk about VR, when they think of the game, or a 360-degree panoramic video. But I think that this sort of thing doctors remote surgery. Think about it, the world's best doctors surgery can be anywhere. We can use the micro-robot to allow doctors to control them, but which on network bandwidth and latency presented a very high demand.

There are some things in daily life, for example, you go to a concert, go to the game or something, found the scene of the network is almost paralyzed, it is because there is only one base station. Network bandwidth is too small, and the number too much. But after have Terragraph, bandwidth is greatly increased. By the time you no longer have to worry about the concert site network is too slow, unable to pronounce the photos and videos.

4 Free Basics of lessons

扎克伯格的十年展望:2026扎克伯格的十年展望:2026 年的 Facebook 是什么样?

Q: You mentioned the Free Basics project, I think what we are discussing today, and the government needs to be formed some partnerships. Free Basics for debate in terms of network neutrality caused by what you have learned the lessons?

A: Yes, all these things are involved with the industry, partnerships with telecom operators, governments and non-profit organizations. Overall, Free Basics is a very successful project, is not it? It is already in use in 42 countries, we internet.org already connected more than 25 million people. This is a good start.

We also encountered a setback in several countries, of course, India is the biggest one. The country has one billion people still do not have Internet access. We have learned from the setbacks and how the government, regulatory bodies dealing with the lessons. Free Basics will continue to be launched in other parts of the world. If one day, we can prove that it has achieved good results in the world, I hope that we will have a chance to be back in India, re-launched the service.

However, the partnership is also important for all other things. Solar unmanned aircraft similar in many respects driverless car problem, I think, we must develop the appropriate framework for the job.

Robot butler 5 AI (AI) and Zuckerberg

扎克伯格的十年展望:2026扎克伯格的十年展望:2026 年的 Facebook 是什么样?

Q: You've said you want to develop an AI housekeeper. This project going? Does it reflect your use of AI in Facebook own products ideas?

A: This project is pretty good. It can control lights, temperature and doors, but also help me bake the bread. It is actually very simple & mdash; & mdash; the device plugged in as long as you can put a network, and then start it. The real challenge is in the field of AI: When my toast. Morning, I must first reply to a message, and then go for a run, and then go to participate in various meetings, the meeting time is usually not fixed, so we need to develop such a AI system: it can according to my position (I'm not at home? I was not in the running?) to determine when to me toast is appropriate, then tell me. To do this requires further efforts to force, but everything is in place.

With a use Facebook is currently developing a variety of AI tools, take a look at the progress we have made in the image recognition, face recognition, object recognition, speech recognition and language understanding, really is particularly interesting. Chatbot framework Mesenger team is developing really cool. If I do not do this at home AI project, I probably would not be interested to know the code. Although I sometimes question raised stupid, but I got to know more people in this regard, the use of more in this area code. I think this is useful. At home, I think the biggest impact is probably my success from his wife seized control of thermostats.

Q: You have said in F8 conference, AI can be a way to build A perception (vision, hearing and understanding language) system better than a human's. Now, Facebook has photos can describe the contents of the user's posts translated into several languages. Looking ahead 10 years, do you think AI can be further improved in terms of the perception of what?

A: I think, AI can be divided into two types. One is pattern recognition, another broader, overall nature of intelligence and self-learning. Frankly speaking, we are not quite understand the second AI.

Right now, we have made a breakthrough in the field of AI majority belong to a complex pattern recognition system. AI development is a good thing or a bad thing, has caused a lot of discussion. But I think, pattern recognition will play in many ways, especially a huge role, such as the blind to tell what the picture is, for example, be able to better diagnose the disease more quickly find a cure cure for the disease, or to drive more safely vehicle. These are the things can save lives.

Do not forget, AI is not magic, it's just mathematics, statistics, and the use of different data sets of large amounts of data to perform pattern recognition. It can improve our quality of life.

For me, the most exciting thing is we have a team in improving the model matching system has made progress, and we found 37 converge in depth on neural network method, no one has done it before & mdash ; & mdash; and then we published a paper, so that other companies and teams can also use this method. Now, their system can better diagnose the disease, or more safely drive a car. It's really heartening. We are still in the stage of pattern matching, to recognize this is really important. From the very basic level, the pattern matching is a good thing, we should not fear to further develop it.

The next six Chatterbot

扎克伯格的十年展望:2026扎克伯格的十年展望:2026 年的 Facebook 是什么样?

Q: Some people think that, compared with other interface, chat robot speed is relatively slow, I also have this view. How do you think the interface will develop in the coming years?

A: I have to say something about the root causes of bot use it. Each month, there are millions of people on Facebook company page, and ask questions related to the company. Therefore, companies increasingly focus on their own sense of presence on the Facebook page. If you want to contact a company, give them a message on Facebook is a good way. But you can imagine, to wait for the company's response may take several hours, and sometimes even spend a few days. So, our initial idea is to see if you can develop an AI system that can respond to the customer in accordance with the company's way to predict certain types of problems should be given to how to reply. We found, in fact, in many cases this can be done. And when the company respond faster, more users will send a message to them. So we began to consider whether the company can become an artificial reply automatically reply, the results we have greatly accelerated the speed of response.

It is not some customized UI will be better than the chat interface? Maybe sometimes it is so. I do not think the chat interface in all cases are the best forms of interaction, but I think it is better than 10-fold or even 100 times more than the way people interact with businesses right now. Regardless interactive chat fast or slow, the people I know, no one likes to call for information or an order, because it feels uncomfortable, you have to concentrate, a question and answer react job. However, if you can send messages & mdash; & mdash; whether you are speaking against it, or send a voice or to play a few words, and then get a reply as soon as possible, whether it is after a few seconds or a few minutes later to give reply & mdash ; & mdash; I think this is a huge improvement in life.

7 Facebook efforts in the field of virtual reality

扎克伯格的十年展望:2026扎克伯格的十年展望:2026 年的 Facebook 是什么样?

Q: Can you talk about VR technology means? Especially in the case of ultra-high resolution and low latency.

A: The importance of VR is reflected in several aspects. First, our mission is to share as much as possible so that we truly own experience to help you understand what is happening around. The development of technology to increase the sharing of experience increasingly rich level. Recalling the 10 years or 15 years ago, most people in the Internet to share experiences, are likely to take the form of text. Now almost everything is an image, the image is becoming a fundamental way people communicate. With the further improvement of network conditions, we started using videos. Now, you can not release a video a few minutes, you want to see a video buffer time will not take 30 seconds. Video experience is getting better, so the video is starting to become the main way people interact with and consume content on the Internet, or that one of the main ways.

But this was not just & mdash; & mdash; our experience is not a video, not a small 2D images, but a 3D world. You want to be able to capture this experience, hoping to use digitally representing them, both in the game you created, or in your captured video. I think, it's just we express ourselves and the next stage experience of the world, a natural development in line with the logic. I think you will later wearing VR helmets, express themselves in Facebook, Messenger and WhatsApp interface, experience the world, as we now see in the news channel of 360-degree panoramic video in that. Although it is true VR experience and that wearing helmets is still lagging behind, but also very good, and allows you to get a rough idea.

For VR, the other one is a big trend: every 10 to 15 years, there will be a new paradigm of mainstream computing. This is usually through their interface, and how they interact with the world defined. Think of the 1980s, when a large number of servers are, if you do not have a special degree, want to use them is very difficult. 90s bulky desktop computers, but their efficiency is high enough, so people mainly think of them as a productivity tool to use. Basically using the mouse. Then we have the web, data to be transmitted becomes easier on many different computers. Later we had phone. In fact, the phone is the first mainstream of computing platforms. People really like the phone, but this is not the end of development. After there will be something else.

Just like the mobile phone, the phone all the time we close at hand, and compared with the use of computers, use of mobile phones in many ways more natural, and the use of VR and Augmented Reality (AR) will be more natural than a cell phone. There are many cell phone restrictions, you have to put it out of your pocket, it's not a very natural motion. Later, as long as you wear a glasses to interact, or the end, as long as you put some kind of contact lenses can be. Then you look around and see different things, then reach out and grab them & mdash; & mdash; This is an interactive way. I think this is the next stage of human-computer interaction, a stage of development in line with the logic. We are happy to push forward the development of these two trends.

8 challenges in the field of Augmented Reality

扎克伯格的十年展望:2026扎克伯格的十年展望:2026 年的 Facebook 是什么样?

Q: You talk a lot about the VR program, but has not mentioned how AR. Facebook how you want to play a role in promoting AR areas?

AR research we are carrying out. We started doing most of the reason is that VR, VR technology is ready. You can create a price close to the people of the VR helmet. Moreover, people really started using a VR helmet. This is because it can be supporting the use of mobile phones. Even more expensive is the price of Rift, you can also use your phone a lot of parts, which is why it's priced at hundreds of dollars, not thousands, tens of thousands of dollars of reasons.

AR in the field of scientific problems to solve some more, but I am optimistic that we will soon find answers to these questions in the next five or 10 years, AR will be developed to Rift in the field of VR Level. But I think, VR project is undoubtedly easier to build, easier to popularize some, this is the reason why we began to get involved VR products. But at the same time, we are very careful study AR technology.

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