"Are you ok?" To be honest, I'm not OK. & Rdquo;
Last year's annual meeting, as far as possible to take care of the staff of the Lei Jun, firm and without hesitation to express his dissatisfaction, then he had such a observation of millet: "We set the sales expectations of 80 million, all of us Work, do not consciously around this task to start, every day thinking about how to complete. Under such pressure, our movements are deformed, and everyone's face is a little bit of a smile. & Rdquo;
However, a year and a half later, once called "slow down to make up" Lei Jun suddenly announced that this year Q2 millet mobile shipments of 23.16 million units to achieve the ring of 70% growth, not only "the worst days have passed" rdquo; But also to recruit more than a thousand R & D personnel, excited Lei Jun and even threw out next year, 100 million units shipped in the small target & rdquo ;.
Once the frowned millet, it seems that the moment has entered the Great Leap Forward era.
From Lei Jun's speech in the swearing of the General Assembly, his optimism relied heavily on several important judgments on the industry, but the income of a family will be lost, competition, such as millet expected smooth?
1, the trend of smart phones is growing or declining?
At least last year's situation is not optimistic, IDC's data is the world's smart phone sales grew by only 0.6%, compared to 10% increase in 2015, which is almost a stagnant market, Lei Jun also disheartened : Millet will enter a transition period, no longer publish the annual shipments, happy like!
But this year's situation gives confidence, although Gartner is expected to ship equipment fell by 0.3%, but that smart phones will have 5% increase, IDC first quarter data also confirms this, the global smart phone total shipments Amounted to 344.4 million units, an increase of 4.3%, higher than the expected 3.6%. Samsung, Apple, Huawei, OPPO, vivo three to five, millet is still included in the others, there are 21.6% increase.
Lei Jun has reason to believe that since the two quarters of this year shipments (36.78 million units) will be able to last year (41.5 million units) roughly flat, so millet 80 million units throughout the year the scale and 100 billion revenue seems to be reliable The
But the situation is really so optimistic?
China Information and Communication Research Institute data is that in January this year, domestic mobile phone shipments of 239 million, down 5.9%, the new models are narrowed to 565, down 26% year on year, which fell more in June year on year To 6.2%.
This shows that the overall capacity of the domestic mobile phone market is in decline, to participate in the competition of products in the reduction, the original cost-effective thinking-oriented parity market is the transition to the high-end, which is not familiar with millet competition. In this context, Lei Jun restart the shipments of the war, of course, is to once the copy of the millet mode to overseas.
2, overseas expansion
Since the fact that millet has been promoting the internationalization of millet, it has been a long time in China, such as Myanmar, Belarus, Uruguay, Indonesia, Singapore, Israel and other markets, but to win at the same time as the domestic market shrank Volume of the war, the main battlefield must only be in India.
But India is a developing, very unhealthy mobile phone market.
The market competition is concentrated in the range of less than 100 US dollars, including Samsung Z1, Z2 are only 4299-4599 rupees (about less than 500 yuan), the Indian local brand known as the world's cheapest Freedom 251 as long as 251 rupees (25 ), But this record was soon broken by Acche Din in May, the latter only 99 rupees (10 yuan), no doubt, this is not yet evolved into the domestic market of thousands of primary market.
Even according to millet official data, in May in India launched red rice 4 sold 1 million units, priced at 6,999 rupees (about 740 yuan), also significantly lower than the domestic starting price of 799 yuan.
Reference to OPPO launched in India in the same month F3, priced at 19990 rupees (about 2147 yuan), the recent launch of the overseas version of the glory of 8 to 29,999 rupees (3151 yuan).
Millet may be in the cheap machine paradise in India, get the volume of the dispute between the required data, but the meaning of the market itself is limited to this, Lei Jun is clear this point. In the previous interview, he said to the millet home to India, indicating that millet in the market is still taking the brand after the upside determination.
3, three or four lines of the city's turnover is already in the past?
Widely recognized for the Lei Jun, there is a not pay attention to the premise that the smart wave of the second wave of mobile phones and small cities in the exchange of tide is already past, this is his previous view of the supplement: OV The rise of the "but" the use of the city of the information on behalf of the uneven, implied meaning, millet will not go to "deceive" in the remote corner of the occlusion of users.
There is three points in this statement:
First of all, Lei Jun that OV mode ahead of the overdraft of the three or five lines of the city's replacement needs, is a dry Ze and fishing marketing, the future is difficult to find new growth points;
Second, he judged the line of millet house has the ability to frustrate OV on a second-tier city penetration;
Finally, in the millet seems to reach and educate small cities, the cost of potential users is too high, the initiative is not strong.
In other words, even if many of the three-party data, such as Sino, show that OV's shipments remain high in the first two quarters of this year, millet has not yet seen it as an opponent. Lei Jun optimistic about the OV that a low with the high price of the strategy, in a second-tier cities in front of smart consumers hit badly beaten.
4, the resurgence of channel power
In millet on the two fronts, the new retail fulcrum is the line under the millet house. According to Lei Jun's argument, the country has 123 stores, single store area of 200 or so, revenue in the level of 70 million or so, the efficiency of 250,000. From the data point of view, this is second only to Apple's retail format, enough to shoulder the luxury.
In the domestic mobile phone brand in the operation of this size of the store, millet can be said before the ancients, after no one, the main idea: First, from the brand image on the help of ASP (average retail price) to complete the upside, Is to strengthen the offline experience to convey the so-called black technology advantage.
But the effect of how long to be observed.
A lot of people ridicule Apple line outside the crowd, which in addition to the black anti-over, the most important thing is a sense of science and technology products have a sense of perceptual too much, into the store more like fans fanatical rather than understand the product just need Moreover, the millet of the category and product iteration rhythm can support this passenger flow is also doubt.
Recently, there are news that millet to start sub-brand "blue rice" and online to strengthen the competition with OV and Huawei Nova, positioning may be elevated to 2500-3500 yuan interval, but this small city in the information Asymmetric "play, how to support millet house in a second-tier city to face smart consumers? It was curious.
From the purely quantitative point of view, the rice eco-chain support for the millet house may be much larger than the phone.
Lei Jun's new retail from one side reflects the millet on the original network marketing model lost confidence, the cost of network marketing is climbing, and more and more dependent on 618, Singles this kind of promotion, such as riding a tiger phone brand Every year had to invest a lot of resources, new competition is also unprecedented, although the network marketing channels than in the past, but the decomposition of indicators and more refined. Not only sales and sales and other data, as well as the price of the sub-list of the list, every time the list often have a number of brands claiming to be champion, war of words and war are enjoying themselves.
For millet, the effect of network marketing is becoming uncontrollable, and there is a solidification of the brand image in the low-end trend, in Jingdong and Suning, millet sell the best are red rice Note4, because the platform is always hope More cheap models.
5, black technology
In the Lei Jun view, millet is a re-research and development of the company, and the number of patents is entering the outbreak period, July 7, the internal swearing of the General Assembly, he also sunning data, & ldquo; last year in the global application for 7071 invention patents, 2895 patents (half of which are international invention patents). However, the domestic situation, the State Intellectual Property Office data show that millet last year, the field of communications for the total number of patent applications for the 3280, ranked eighth, the top is still Huawei 4906. In the actual number of granted, Huawei has 2690, 700 or so millet failed to enter the top ten
In addition to its pineal company's surging chip, millet black technology is still concentrated in the full screen, ceramic materials and other users can perceive the experience level, the accumulation of patented technology has not yet reached the level of product quality change.
Of course, the rumored millet to internationalization, black technology and other five strategies for the break, once again confront Huawei and OV, after all, domestic mobile phone event, but two years of reflection, after the strategic correction has been regained the volume of the cycle, "Back to the fever" ralph lauren pas cher, the original intention of getting away?