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Only Beijing alliance, whether opened the prelude to China's online retail life and death battle?

via:博客园     time:2017/12/18 13:32:50     readed:48

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Text / Zhu Si code mind

Editor's note: This article was written on July 19, 2017.

June 15, 2015, together cost Top Business Club "Mettler will", when he was president of retail business group Ali has been wildly said: "Lynx is more than a Jingdong only product, together cost-effective is more than Only product will be more than a cat. & rdquo;

1 year and 6 months later, Alibaba Group has been hailed as "Meticulous sword" poly cost-effective division into the Lynx, "Sword for the plow".

In 2017 618 war just extinguished, Jingdong and the only product will be issued a joint statement to resist unfair competition by an e-commerce, Ali subsequently published "touch porcelain that" PR war again ignited. There are indications that Jingdong and Vipshop years of gossip seems to have new developments.

Ju Si code in mind on July 15, 2017 received a reliable source from a group insiders, the only product will be Jingdong Mall and will be completed later strategic cooperation, "the only Beijing" Lynch will mean Lynx.

Regardless of the day cat and poly-worthy pro-plus-relatives, or the upcoming hit the only Beijing Union. Any one, what form of 1 + 1 is like a chain reaction when the two nuclear charge touch, but the difference between nuclear leak and nuclear explosion lies in the role of the object itself or the enemy.

When a bipolar pattern is formed, tens of millions of e-commerce practitioners will have the highest historical peak in decision-making costs and difficulties when choosing between the two major e-commerce groups in Ali and Jingdong.

"Orwell-style" era of unfair competition, has just begun.

First, Ali's "broken sword"

Heaven Sword, Jin Yong's novels built-in martial arts cheats Excalibur, Ali internally interpreted as "it does not kill a fortress, but by virtue of its magic trick to defeat the enemy victory" rdquo;

As for why this "Heaven Sword" was confiscated by Lynx, and the impact of the incident on the CD-Kyu Alliance, we need to start with talking about how to get started.

Ju Hua Division was set up in 2010, formerly known as "Taobao buy" in 2011 -2012 was split into independent companies Alibaba Group, registered an independent domain name, and even made an independent APP, positioned as Alibaba's Selling platform, you can benchmark the fledgling of the only product will be.

At the beginning of the poly-cost operation, Primary Two possessed the authority of independent selection, ordering, warehouse control and supply chain control. The heavy mode at that time was almost the same as that of today's Vipshop. From low-priced and low-priced products Start with the late attempt to enhance the unit price of the brand group, and then open the luxury goods group Sword only product will be, and then the sea Amoy, agro-food, fresh, tourism, with "omnipotent" slogan. However, as time went by, the core of its operation gradually shifted from the operation of goods to the operation of today's traffic.

Why lost the right to operate independently?

Because Heaven Sword is not an imaginary name.

Ali's ecosystem of many familiar new products and new industries with cost-effective have shown a very powerful explosive: From the early Amoy brand, Ali new agriculture, made in China, weekend Taobao, Lynx International, etc., are all through the use of poly Cost-effective sale of this model to complete the early take-off, and thus open the industry gap. For many Alibaba Group business line classmates: the significance of cost savings lies in the lowest possible cost of time to complete the trial and error of new products quickly.

It is precisely because of the cost-effective growth in the Taobao platform, the advantage is that compared to the VIP and many other to B platform to complete the process from 0 to 1 faster, and the flow has a rolling advantage, it took off very rapidly. But it is also the background of Alibaba, making it under the power of the main body into a group of departments of traffic demand platform.

Juicing want to build its own independent business model, want to use the advantages of large-flow access to the bottom of the industry supply chain, and even intervention in the development of derivatives there are many hardships and difficulties on the road, and eventually turned into today's appearance - mdash; & mdash; A department that does not have the ability to operate independently, as the focus of the home page of Taobao, scroll the general existence.

What does it mean to merge with Lynx?

First, Ali tightened his fist. Independent operator of the poly operator in the business line with Lynx's communication is the most, under the pressure of internal contradictions into the Lynx, Ali Group strategic perspective from the point of view: Lynx broader market follow the importance of boosting Ali than Other e-commerce new business to come even more important. Predict the future Jingdong strong competition, and the largest competing products - the potential cooperation between the only product and the former may, Lynx choose to first get rid of the gap, enhance the industry influence, focus all the power, produce greater Competitive advantage.

Second, poly cost-effective to bring Lynx business control, traffic control opportunities. Merchants in the past need to find two departments to become only one person today to reduce communication costs and improve efficiency, and Tmall fully integrated access to the merger after the merger of the business operator's freedom has been further enhanced.

In the end, Ali's sale of electricity dealers ended their historic mission. Former executives said to Ju Si code, "Our internal test and verify a few years ago in the case of highly centralized traffic, the brand business has an upper limit SPU threshold, and when the sale of business SPU Threshold beyond the base, the conversion rate and sales will be significantly reduced ". When the number of businesses is more and more and the demand is more and more large, the result of more and more pit pitches is that the sales model loses the essence of selected products and strong explosive power. Has been unable to solve.

To sum up, Ali suddenly 6 years later, "call the note" broken sword, recklessly cost-effective day cat industry leading position, though sigh but unfortunate.

Second, "only Beijing" Union

For the past 18 consecutive quarterly earnings of the only product, the share price is inexplicable decline.

Online Outlets, which focus on sale, because the time constraints of buying outshine the operational-layer side-effects of homogeneous competition today; focusing on the natural attributes of the female consumer group makes it difficult to expand the category; Logistics specializes in apparel non-standard products expertise, allowing them to expand the standard product category on the road and release a higher cost pressure.

Even based on the above-mentioned unfavorable factors, the alliance with Beijing only suddenly came out today at the moment when the two United Says Lynx Lynx were united.

"The final outcome of mergers and acquisitions at home and abroad is still the failure or unsatisfactory majority, aside we can not control the talk, the only coalition is a considerable degree of complementarity," the former VIP only executives will Code to remember Expressed his opinion on the possibility of a merger between the two futures.

"On the one hand is certainly the category, the big apparel industry is Jingdong long short legs, the second is the traffic and users"; Jingdong development speed and space for development in its deep plowing years of large appliances and 3C digital industry has done To the domestic first, at the moment the ceiling near but the apparel industry's short board because of its platform, the distribution of the audience opened in fact restricted its has not been able to get a good development, "only Beijing measure" is that Jingdong can be a strategic level Of the merged directly to the only goods hand clothing apparel industry business resources, and even simple and crude will Jingdong Mall apparel operations team to the only product team operations, the model continuation of Yi Xun network and the cooperation between Jingdong mode. However, to reach the above strategic level, equity replacement or holding is a prerequisite, followed by the terms of the transaction between the two sides.

After all, the only product may be a sale platform, the biggest failure of Jingdong that year is that they put the mall and sale in two points, the pain of the business also pit themselves, because the same product line followed by different sales model, but the real under the line Outlets and retail are not in the same place at the same time happen.

"The third aspect is taking into account the two sides face a strong opponent", the success of the only product is known to occur during the 2008 Olympic Games, the impact of business hoarding and financial tsunami, born under the favorable conditions. However, Alibaba Group did not even consider Vipshop even its own rival in the early days. Ali's business is not on Lynx or on Lynx. Clearly, the Sewer's sewer work obviously does not meet Lynx's values. However, it is still ironic that after the end of the double 11 each year, the only product will usher in the annual sales of the most popular node - even its internal are jokingly help Hangzhou horse total clear double 11 inventory.

Although there is no business in Ali, it is impossible for Ali to make all the business in the world, so that the time-poor VIP will have a chance and achieved today's body mass.

Recall that in the past three years, the listing of Vipshop only proved the feasibility of the online sale model and its high viscosity in the marketing side. However, there are still some questions on whether to go abroad for study or to market shares. Summary reason is that Jingdong made a flash purchase Ali Ali together with the Vipshop will also play directly on the stage, but the sale of both models are accompanied by the flow of dividends in the past and into trouble or the end of the mission, and today the only product will be It is indeed facing its own drawbacks of the natural mode.

The only product will be the drawbacks?

From the business operations level. Sale limits the existence of all SKUs on the platform are limited, frequent ups and downs on the supply chain inventory changes, data updates, synchronization of information and businesses at the same time in Ali, Jingdong and the only platform between the three products back and forth operation, for Business is actually a very headache, if a few pieces of clothes does not matter, the problem is that when the only product will be tens of millions of billions of dollars on the order of magnitude, the nature has completely changed, and become more complicated than other platforms .

At the user level. The face of the three platforms, so many brands, in the case of homogenization, but also in a very short period of time to make so many contrast and decision-making is bound to result in the user to increase the decision-making costs in the VIP product meeting, but In Tmall, Jingdong this kind of thing does not happen, so even in the only product will continue to maintain the high frequency of the new case, the user face the price changes of the time limit will still be more difficult to make judgments than other platforms.

Vipshop as a listed company, it is impossible to stand still, expansion of products is bound to go, but take their own areas are not good, and users are based on female consumers as the main group, when the platform expanded to other people's cake, in order to Get more traffic, it is bound to grab the cake with others in return for performance growth.

So the only Beijing Union, how will padded each other's short board?

Logistics level. Only products in the logistics level strength is actually good, 80% of their goods are self-support logistics and distribution, and the coverage area includes Jingdong logistics is not well covered in Xinjiang, Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan and other provinces, followed by non-standard As for the product, Vipshop has long been involved in complex sizes, while Jingdong is good at standard products. Therefore, it is very practical to complement each other based on years of experience both in the case of huge order demand.

Industry level. With the experience of Vipshop, JD.com is able to expand the category of apparel shoes and bags, establish a POP-based mall model and further enhance the profit margin. After all, self-operated e-commerce based solely on the sales volume has a ceiling.

Sale level. The concept of inventory in the retail industry will last for a long time. Although it is not the level of retail inventory in 2008, it is quite normal for the merchants to account for 10% to 20% of the inventory. Ali in recent years, both 11 want to avoid the early years to give businesses in the double 11 after leaving a chicken feat, but no one will not need the growth of GMV demand, this game seems to be a prisoner paradox: If the business inventory Smaller, the decline in their performance means that competitors have become stronger, in the non-rational business and non-rational platform for small two cooperation, this by the loss of stock up sales approach is contrary to common sense, but also not long But it is long-standing. Therefore, the sale of the only product will be based on no one can do

"Tmall and Vikings and Beijing both force businesses to do their own activities even with such a powerful mass on their own, and this is what happens today Reason I think today's Lynx service worse than in the past, because if the Jingdong, VIP service will do worse, businesses have no reason to offend the industry first and choose the industry two, three, four? "In a recent gossip, public relations at both parties boasted of calling for fair competition, but privately run schools of every one were trying to get businesses to their side. Since both parties use such a principle of no bottom line, whether it is based on the industry's first sense of vigilance or desperate resistance as the industry's two or three, we all see a moral high ground, but the market value approaches The $ 400 billion company looks more expensive than another company with a market capitalization of $ 60 billion.

This zero-sum game, in fact, has been fated in the early days of the birth of several platforms. Once the user needs to choose between ebay and Taobao, but also in Suning, Jingdong choose between Uber and drops of choice, then today is bound to choose between Jingdong and Lynx, the only variable is the only product will stand Jingdong side.

Third, 1 + 1 can be greater than 2?

Obviously, tactical mergers and strategic alliances can not be described in such a simple math problem, let alone Lynx and Jingdong will inevitably each stick to one word and will not give up.

More efficient Lynx + poly cost-effective at the operational level, the only difference with the only product is not the level of a single SPU but a whole lot of goods as a whole consideration, to the drainage models, promotional models, integrated into Business gross profit margin rather than a single product discounts, so despite the cost savings independent operation ability, but still has a very strong strength. However, some people think that Alisan abandoned the cost-effective independent operation of feeding Lynx cat is cut the flesh phase of the move, the former Vipshop executives even threatened "if the model in accordance with the 2011-2012 actually go instead of completing the KPI bear second year, Able to do unattended operations based on the big data of Ali Poly cost-effective may have long dried the only product will be "rdquo ;.

However, Ali, a model criticized by Ali, has gradually liberalized the pricing, ordering and deduction authorities of its merchants in recent years. However, real data show that less than 20% of the businesses still have the above operations Capacity, the remaining 70% of the business is still a simple clearing of the idea, which also verifies the side by side after the loss of independent operating capacity only as a risk of traffic entrance. Only Beijing two since the possibility of a merger, then the only product will be the sale model or will continue, and in the future will continue to focus on the turnover of several major platform merchants seasonal goods, but also with the assistance of Jingdong into the standard and More new sectors for male audiences.

However, whether the two completed 1 + 1 can be greater than 2, the topic of escape can not be solved by two businesses how to deal with the issue of service. Even the country's leading e-commerce platform, but most of the operating personnel are non-retail industry background, and holding hundreds of millions of annual sales of businesses. As they compete for business resources and then complete the platform for their own under the KPI, their behavior, amplified the gap between platform and business interests of alliance.

Since such a game can not be stopped in the short term, businesses will inevitably have to form strong forces by themselves or by forming alliances to influence and even oppose the platform, while passive non-profit is constrained by the election of any platform.

When businesses have enough loyal customers and strong social influence, they can enjoy the special policies of domestic e-commerce platforms like Apple, UNIQLO and Zara, and put forward our strong point when dealing with platform policies, forcing the platform Better service to keep yourself, of course, to protect yourself.

Two tigers fight, the lesser death, the greater will be hurt, the child to be hurt and the thorn of the tiger, the one and one and two tiger too.

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