The famous American investment website Seekingalpha.com today published the article signed by John Engel (John Engle). In the demand of Model S and X, Tesla deceived all the media. The author points out that the waiting time of the two Tesla cars is not due to the increase of demand, but because Tesla slowed down their production speed. The original text is as follows:
Some people informed last week that the waiting time for Model S and Model X was prolonged. Critics say this means that the demand for the two cars has increased considerably.
But careful observation will find that the waiting time is prolonged because Tesla slows the production speed, not because of the increase in demand.
Since this year, the demand for Model S and Model X seems to have been very weak. That's why Tesla decided not to expand the capacity of these models.
The lengthening of external misreading and waiting time reveals the strong power of Tesla in shaping people's views on their performance, and shows that commentators have lost the attitude of rational analysis when facing Tesla.
For years, Tesla supporters have been disguised for the company's inability to fulfill its promises and not deliver the product according to its original plan. The electric car manufacturer has always been widely watched by the media, often a suffocating and flattering flattery.
Last week, Tesla got on the headlines because Model S and Model X waited for more and more time to deliver. Many commentators quickly say that the longer waiting time means demand is rising. Of course, whether it is true or not, Tesla's management is happy to hear that.
But for Tesla and his supporters, it is unfortunate that this supply of demand is just a fantasy. In fact, there is evidence that the demand for these two cars has been extremely weak since this year. Bill Maurer (Bill Maurer) and onji (Ener Tuition) - Tui Xun has spoken from the aspects of the problem, and done well. This article attempts to combine their respective views and further expand the analysis.
Let's take a look at what happened to Model S and Model X.
Does the demand really take off?
Electrek revealed last week that the waiting time for new orders for Model X and Model S was extended. Now, the buyers of these two high-end models may have to wait for 4 to 5 months to get the goods.
Electrek has long been a cheerleader for Tesla, so it's not surprising that it makes such news. They analyze it this way:
Obviously, Tesla is trying to say that orders wait for a longer delivery time is due to a high demand for Model X and Model S. This is an important signal for the company, because it shows that the company can sell these more profitable cars, optimize the order, and improve the company's profit.
But there is one problem: These are not true.
There is a feeling that some places are not right
People who have participated in the latest teleconferencing conference in Tesla will question the above analysis. Are the needs of Model X and Model S really so high? Indeed, Tesla made clear at the conference call that the company expects the demand of Model X and Model S will be relatively stable, and that it is not necessary for the company to further expand its capacity.
Tesla has considered expanding the value of Model S and Model X capacity, which will increase the production capacity of its 18650 battery, but Tesla's choice is not to expand production capacity. This shows that the company thinks the investment is not worth it. Whatever the demand is, the annual supply of high-end cars in Tesla is limited to about 100 thousand cars. We can also draw the following conjecture: in view of the habit of magnate capital spending by CEO, musk, it is unreasonable to expand Model S and Model X production capacity from an economic point of view, or even to measure it according to Tesla's fairly loose standard.
The conference was held in February, so Tesla already knew that the number of deliveries in the first quarter of 2018 had been basically fixed. But it did not say anything at the conference call, and did not emphasize the huge increase in the demand for Model S and Model X. Of course, if the company sees an amazing demand, it will at least mention this at the conference call.
Why did Tesla not announce the huge demand for Model S and Model X at the February financial conference call conference? The reason is simple, it's just a wishful fantasy of the commentators.
Numbers do not lie
It is difficult to calculate the amount of delivery of Model S and Model X. Data are derived from multiple data sources and a certain degree of estimation. However, it has been proved that some data from the delivery tracking service in the past are fairly accurate, so we can refer to these forward-looking estimates to some extent.
Analysts and industry tracking researchers say reality is far from the prospect of optimism. In fact, we have seen signs of a significant decline in the order of these car models. In the case of Norway, the largest international market in ttesla, its order has actually collapsed since the fourth quarter of 2017.
The reality is that the demand data does not exist at all. This is not to say that Tesla could not achieve the sales target of 100 thousand cars in 2018. But in the current situation, the decision to decide not to expand the capacity is right, and does not make a serious mistake.
So, why do orders accumulate and increase? The answer is not the supply and demand of Model S and Model X, but the problem that continues to perplex Model 3. Facing the mass market, production problems of Model 3 vehicles have already appeared, and these problems will continue to exist, because Tesla has lowered production targets, but it will continue to postpone the time to achieve those goals.
What is the relationship between Model 3 and Model S and Model X? The answer is very simple: Tesla has reduced the production schedule of Model S and Model X from three to two shifts, so as to transfer human resources to the Model 3 production line. Specifically, we know that in the fourth quarter of 2017, some Model S and Model X production line workers were transferred to the Model 3 production line. As expected, this will certainly have a certain impact on the production of Model S and Model X.
Therefore, even in a market where demand is stable, it is natural that the time of order waiting for delivery will be extended. In fact, the time for waiting for delivery will be longer and longer, because Tesla has a large number of Model S and Model X cars inventory last year, and in the last few months of 2017, these stocks have been reduced.
Tesla was willing to see the fact that outside misreading waited for the delivery time to extend
There is no sign of a sudden increase in demand for Model S and Model X models. More specifically, this is because Tesla is trying to ensure that low profit, mass market - oriented models do not fail.
This leads to an important question: if Tesla knows that the limited supply is the real reason for prolonging the waiting time of the order, why does it imply the increase in demand?
We speculate the reasons behind the inconvenience improper, but any explanation is a certain degree of speculation as Electrek reported:
Therefore, Tesla's statement is not technically wrong. It is true that high demand leads to a backlog of orders. The company simply ignores the fact that demand is not higher than before. In fact, it may be even lower, and it deliberately slows down production speed. Although most other companies may not dare to bluff and bluster, Tesla is obviously happy to see that the media accepts its explanation, and the interpretation of the incident by the external media has not really disappointed Tesla.
Investor's point of view
From an investment point of view, the waiting delivery time for Model S and Model X orders is getting longer and longer, and the reasons behind it are not very important. Even if real demand is really increasing, Tesla has no intention of expanding capacity and increasing supply. The long-term growth of Tesla depends on the significant growth of Model 3, as well as the success of autopilot, solar, and subsequent auto products. Tesla's growth will end in the end, but it will never be because the demand for high-end products is stagnant.
But this little episode is really important, because it reveals the tendencies of Tesla to deceive investors and tamper with facts. Through a simple study, it can be proved that the growth of demand is wrong, but everyone seems to be willing to accept Tesla's statement.
Tesla knows that it will not be punished for those bizarre promises and statements, because those who provide critical reviews and opinions are more interested in the world of fantasy. This interlude makes the company dispel the will to tell the truth, whenever it thinks that it can get away with it, it will deliberately mislead the market and investors.
For investors, the most important thing is that Tesla is a stock that relies on faith and fanatical belief. In the end, a glorified commitment will no longer be able to cover up the most basic realities. But it is clear that even the weakest glimmer of dawn will be woven into a golden tapestry by Tesla supporters. This helps to make Tesla stock rise temporarily in the stock market, but it will never push it up forever. (compiling / Lin Jingdong)