On March 14th, there was news report content. The APP headlines had already received Tencent's Pre-IPO round of financing, amounting to around RMB 100 million, with an estimated value of between US$1.3 billion and US$1.5 billion. In addition, the headlines are planned to be listed during the year, and the estimated value is expected to be around US$3 billion. This cannot help but be surprised. What kind of startup companies have only been established for 1 year and 9 months, so that they dare to think so?
Tencent's latest investment in this round of shares 20%, screenshots from IT Orange
The small explosion summarizes three major questions that need to be answered before listing:
Question one: In the first two years of business, you must rush to market. Can the headline data support your valuation?
As of December 2017, the headline DAU has exceeded 8 million, monthly activity is close to 35 million, Tencent has given a valuation of 13-15 billion US dollars.
The headlines of today said in November 2017 that its daily news app APP had more than 120 million active users. In December last year, technology media broke the news that today’s headlines are seeking financing at a valuation of US$28-300 billion.
The daily live user gap between the two is 15 times, and the headline of the valuation today is 20 times higher than the headline, so the value of the headline is still underestimated.
But don't forget, today's headline also hatched several video APPs such as volcano video, vibraphone, and watermelon videos. Moreover, these three video APP live users also exceeded 100 million live days during the Spring Festival. Still more terrifying.
It seems that the headline data is still slightly thin.
More intuitive comparisons are interesting headlines and probes, because although the two fields are different, the number of active users is relatively close. By January 2018, the daily life of the probe remains at around 7 million while the headline is 800. Million +. The purchase price of Momo to explorer is 735 million U.S. dollars. As for this, Momo has also been questioned by the media why such high price acquisitions are being probed.
With exploration as the anchor, it would be difficult to exceed 900 million U.S. dollars if the simple calculation of daily live users is to estimate the headline's valuation. Therefore, the current valuation of $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion is more difficult to support.
Looking at the time from start-up to listing, if it is listed in the report in 2018, it will take up to two and a half years to start a business.
It seems that Wang Xiaochuan is really hard-pressed. Sogou’s pre-IPO valuation of US$5.0 billion to US$6 billion took 14 years, and Tencent has easily given an estimated 3 billion yuan worth of pre-IPO listings. It took the company less than two and a half years. Not only does the same information flow, but also the Sogou concept posted on artificial intelligence, is it worthless?
Let's take a look at a startup's normal time to market——
Companies listed after 2000, statistics on the time taken from establishment to listing
As can be seen from the above figure, the average time it takes for a company to go public is 8 years. When Jumei Youpin was listed on the market in 2014, it took only 4 years to be touted by the media and considered it a very rare success case. It took only 3 years for the Fun Shop to be listed in 2017, and it was for entrepreneurs to see the benefits of having a big leg.
Now that the headlines can be listed on the market in two and a half years, it is really thanks to the Tencent.
However, the rushed companies listed, after the fate of most of them are not very good & mdash; & mdash; domestic Jumei excellent products, interesting shops; foreign Groupon and other stock prices are not shrinking 10 times, that is, market value suffered:
Jumei Youpin dropped from the highest price of US$39 to today’s US$3 in 4 years after its listing; Groupon dropped from US$31 to today’s US$4.55 in the 7 years after its listing; From last year's listing, the market value has dropped from more than $11 billion to $4.7 billion.
It can be seen that the rapid listing of startup companies may have a relatively large "sequel".
Question two: Starting from the Internet to the apprentice model, is the headline business model content MLM?
Let us say that the headline business model is the reading division model.
Fun headline business model (picture from network)
This model is both good and bad: The advantage is that users can be acquired at a low cost. According to the statistics of IT oranges, the total financing amount of the headline has reached RMB 2.175 billion, and it is calculated to be 8 million according to the headlines, and the monthly live 35 million, a single day. The user acquisition cost is 272 yuan, and the live acquisition cost for a single month is 62 yuan. If you don't count Tencent's recent investment of 100 million yuan, you may be able to spend less on the headlines and get today's user scale.
Of course, you may think this user cost is too high. However, comparing the exploration of 735 million U.S. dollars in acquisitions, the number of live users is about 7 million. It is calculated that the daily live user acquisition cost is 105 US dollars, or 664 yuan, which is 2.5 times the user's cost. It's better than not knowing!
The disadvantages of this model are also very obvious, that is, the user quality of the headlines is not high. This model is destined to attract the first batch of users it should be the PC era of those who want to do net earners. Most of these people did not read high-quality articles, but rather embraced the "wool" mentality. Most of their readings were sloppy and purposeless. This led to headline users and users. Content is low quality.
At present, the headlines claim 76.4% of users come from third-tier cities, and 65% of the platform users are women. It seems that its future competitors are not headlines today, but rely on female users to survive and survive. .
Is Tencent investment headline is not aimed at today's headline but Alibaba? Think carefully.
Small black dress distribution model
Prior to this, the small black skirts, global catchers, and gathered micro-stores that WeChat platform blocked all involved such models. And the small black dress is also Tencent investment startup company, but WeChat still blocked.
The same headline that relies on Tencent’s rising traffic needs serious thinking about how to avoid “mutual marketing” and this pit.
Question 3: The most important issue at the moment is not to be listed, but how to avoid short-lived?
Let us calmly think about what is the core barrier of fun headlines.
It is not the headline that compares fitness and recommendation technology; it is harder than content quality to exceed WeChat public number; the only headline for investors to catch up is probably its growth rate, and DAU in 2017 increased by 373% year-on-year. Rank 10th.
From Aurora Big Data
But is the current headline model sustainable?
The living environment it faces is severe because there are not only external giants like the headlines on the outside, but also more than 30 APPs with similar headlines like the reading and sharing model, such as Amoy News, Huitou and so on.
In Tencent, apart from the platform-level products such as WeChat and Daily Express, the employees of Xiaomao have not been idle. For example, the example of imitation of instant APPs just a few days ago indicates that they have been doing various kinds of attempts internally. . How can Wang Xiaochuan, who is doing information flow, see the fun headline team that surpasses itself for 2 years?
Facts have proved that with the business model of fun headlines and everyone can imitate, high growth has become the only barrier it can rely on.
However, the question of whether the quality of content is low and the content is widely accepted will be met with regulatory issues in the future. It is also an unknown. The low quality of users may also directly affect the realization of advertising. Fun headlines currently do not disclose their revenue.
In the case that these issues are still pending, the headlines are obviously rushed.
An employee who had left the fun headline told Xiao Bao. The founder of the headline was Tan Siliang, who was born in Shanda University and started advertising technology. In his opinion, Tan's goal is to make quick money, quick flow, and cash out.