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Millet drew the 10 round of financing "parabola", is this Lei Jun's surprise or worry?

via:博客园     time:2018/5/10 19:52:33     readed:383

Starting from 70 times, the valuation of millet has soared to a more than 110 times price earnings ratio, and then began to fall.

According to industry rumors, millet is the fastest in the end of June to the beginning of July listed on H shares. In the last more than a month, millet valuation became a great suspense.

Since millet was published in Hong Kong exchange in May 3rd, whether millet company, related investment bank and two level market investors, the investment logic has turned from hot and dry to calm and rational.

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The most important thing is that the capital market will eventually affect the entity management and development of the company. Is IPO surprise or worry for Lei Jun, a high price earnings ratio issue?

10 round of financing, two times a decline in valuation

The purpose of the Lei Jun to repeat this sentence on many occasions is to try to pull the positioning of millet from the Hard Suits Inc to the Internet Co, which is related to the millet valuation.

IPO on the eve of the key moment, the industry on the valuation of millet dramatic fluctuations, precisely in the entrepreneurial story of eight years behind, millet as a Internet Co story is still not well.

According to statistics, before the IPO, millet completed a total of nine rounds of financing, the total financing scale of $1502107829. The last round of financing was the F round of the end of 2014, with a financing amount of about $1 billion and an estimated value of about $45 billion. The details are as follows.


The above chart shows that December 23, 2014, Xiaomi started F round of financing. The F-1 round of the first share purchase agreement showed a subscription price of $20.168 per share. Investors include All-starsGIC, Hopu Investment and Yunfeng Fund and other institutions. At the time, Lei Jun announced at Weibo that:

F round financing has been carried out in two rounds. Among them, the F-2 round of financing did not end until August 24, 2017. The F-2 subscription price is $17.927 / share, 11.1% lower than the F-1 round, and the corresponding valuation is about 40 billion dollars.

By contrast, the F-1 wheel and F-2 wheel have been different for more than two years, but the valuation is down by 11%. The key reason may be that the F round of priority is two steps, the top 48 million 790 thousand shares are priced at $45 billion, and the first time of $984 million is millet. The number of preferred shares after 150 million dollars depends on the performance of millet.

Due to the 9.2% year-on-year decline in mobile phone shipments in 2016, it is clear that KPI has not been completed. It can only issue 8 million 380 thousand priority shares at the corresponding price of $40 billion. In the end, investors in the F round gained 2.7% shares in the US $1 billion 134 million market capitalization of US $42 billion.

Quite a contrast is that in May 3, 2018 over a week after the announcement of the prospectus issued by millet, the valuation fluctuated again. The valuation of millet dropped from $100 billion to a minimum of $60 billion.

What has happened in it? There are two kinds of analysis ideas, trying to explain the volatility of millet valuation. One view is that millet company has been criticized for its own 100 billion dollar valuation, that is, it is over optimistic about its own development. In fact, the revenue of millet 90% comes from selling hardware products.

Another reason is that since the second half of last year, the stock of Internet technology companies has been plunged into a doldrums, and the valuation has suffered a sharp decline. The most obvious example is that Tencent has lost more than 100 billion of its market value in H-shares.

Valuations draw a parabola, and the price to earnings ratio has been high

In May 3rd, the day of submitting the prospectus was the central axis. The valuation of millet drew a parabola in the more than 20 days before and after.

In April 16th, according to the Hongkong economic daily, the price of the shares sold by the shareholders of the millet showed that the company's valuation ranged from $65 billion to $70 billion.

In May 2nd, it was learned from the sponsor agency that millet IPO was fixed at more than $100 billion, for $120 billion, and cornerstone investors were priced at more than $80 billion.

In May 3rd, the interface from the investment bank of IPO, which was close to millet, was informed that the latest valuation of millet was $100 billion, which also said the valuation was not a final figure, and the banks for trading would be adjusted according to demand.

In May 8th, the Wall Street Journal quoted people familiar with the matter that the IPO target of millet was between $70 billion and $80 billion, less than the $100 billion that had been discussed earlier.

In May 9th, Bloomberg quoted a source of information that the company's current valuation is between $60 billion and $70 billion. It is not clear that this is because potential investors are prohibitive about Millet's initial $100 billion valuation, or bankers and millet executives are looking to lower expectations so that millet is on the market. The stock price rose on the first day.

In May 10th, Sina quoted an intermediary trader at the IPO project close to millet, saying that the estimates for the millet IPO were estimated to be between $70 billion and $100 billion.

The price earnings ratio of millet is about 117 to 70 times from $100 billion to $60 billion from a valuation of $100 billion to 5 billion 400 million yuan in 2017.

This price-earnings ratio of market value, for a hardware company, is almost

As a reference, the earnings ratio of Samsung Electronics is 11.38 times, and the price earnings ratio of apple is 20.35 times, while the most representative of China's most representative Internet Co, Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent, is 33.24 times, 49.99 times and 45.73 times respectively.

If listed at too high a valuation, Xiaomi could surpass Baidu's current $91.1 billion market value, rewriting the pattern of Chinese Internet companies to

Considering that over the past six months, 73 IPO companies in Hongkong have broken 52, and the most recent one in Hongkong is IPO.

The excessive valuation of millet will cause huge pressure on stock prices in a short time.

Will there be a reversal in the valuation of millet?

If there is no reversal of the 2017 shipments of millet, Lei Jun may not choose to sell millet in the first half of 2018, after all, Lei Jun has said many times before.

However, it is noteworthy that in 2017, when the volume of millet shipments was reversed, the company's valuation did not increase correspondingly.

According to the prospectus, millet company F round financing from 2014 to 2017, of which in December 23, 2014 signed the first purchase share agreement F-1 round, subscribed for $20.168 / shares (corresponding to the market value of $45 billion), and the end of August 4, 2017 F-2 round subscription price of 17.927 US dollars / shares.

The market value of F is $42 billion, based on the 2.7% shares of the investors in the F round. But if millet in 2016 profit of 1 billion 900 million yuan calculation, millet last round of financing, the valuation of the corresponding price earnings ratio of more than 140 times, compared with the current low price earnings ratio is more exaggerated.

Integrated millet final round of financing and recent rumors of the valuation trend, millet earnings ratio is generally downward trend, the problem in front of investors is how many times the price earnings ratio is the reasonable level of millet?

At just below Alibaba, Tencent's 40 times price-earnings ratio, Xiaomi is valued at as little as $33.9 billion. In this case Xiaomi has been considered

Compared with pure Internet Co such as apple such as Hard Suits Inc and BAT, millet probably wants to be compared with Amazon.

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Amazon's current price to earnings ratio is 353 times higher, and the earnings and valuations of millet seem to be normal in front of Amazon, but in contrast, millet lacks the mainstay of Amazon's e-commerce, cloud services and even smart speakers.

Xiaomi has to walk his own way.

In a research report, Bank of China International said that Xiaomi is

For Xiaomi, the company that wants to be a hundred billion dollar market value will have to move on in this mode. If millet breaks through,

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