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The United States is eager to go public: the time to "go to Tencent" is coming.

via:博客园     time:2018/7/5 19:07:58     readed:136

拼多多美团急于上市:“去腾讯化”的时刻到来了

The US group and the fight are many, the two most popular this year, "Tencent" & rdquo; unicorn, the front and rear feet announced that it will be listed soon.

This was a good thing.

But against the US group and a lot of prospectus over and over again for a long time, I always feel that it is not right: according to reason, there is Tencent blood transfusion, the only two companies do not have to worry, is listed.

The biggest significance of listing is to raise funds, but the fight and the US group are not short of money. In April, he just got a nearly $3 billion financing from Tencent, and currently holds 8.6 billion yuan in cash. The US bank’s cash reserves are more than 30 billion, which is not counted a few months ago. Acquisition of the money consumed by Mobai.

On the contrary, for the two companies, they are eager to go public before realizing profits. How to dispel investors' doubts is a huge challenge. After more than three years of establishment, the loss is still expanding; as for the US group, the take-away fight is still not over, and the taxi fight has just begun.

The choice to go public at this stage will obviously reduce the valuation level.

In addition to the unsatisfactory financial figures in the prospectus, the fakes on the platform have not been effectively managed.

Despite the many CEOs, Huang Wei, some of the "customer sets" explained that "under the supervision of the public, the fight can grow better and stronger", and can be more compliant with "public supervision", trying to be strict When the compensation system was implemented to solve the problem of counterfeit goods, the merchants opened up one after another to claim the funds for returning the frozen store funds.

Nowadays, this is a situation in which the valley has gone awry, and even Huang has some grievances.It highlights how far it is from a mature e-commerce.

Wang Xing, who is aiming to make the US group a company with a market value of more than 100 billion US dollars, is now slightly bitter: the most optimistic valuation of the US group is no more than 60 billion US dollars. Conservative analysts seem to have difficulty maintaining the $28 billion valuation of the previous round of financing.

The US group attacked everywhere and formed a huge system covering group purchase, take-away, and travel. The profitability of various businesses is in the foreseeable future, and the mutual synergy remains in the concept, which makes the story of the US group complex and vague.

In addition, the rush of the listing rhythm is not in line with the past “Definite” style of Tencent.

The readings listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in November last year have grown for five years under Tenwing, ending all the “wars”. After the annual net profit exceeded 500 million, the company entered the capital with “the attitude of the king”. market.

& ldquo; pro son & rdquo; and "dry son"; after all, "there is something inside and outside". As a wholly-owned subsidiary, Wenwen is in the core circle of Tencent's business, and it continues to provide IP's entertainment empire with IP's “feed”, and Tencent also pours the entire entertainment industry's resources into it.

It’s impossible to have such luck with the fight and the US group.

In the fields of e-commerce and O2O, Tencent itself has repeatedly tried water and finally admitted that “the lack of genes” is not good, and its investment considerations are focused on the “flow” word from beginning to end.

Tencent waved & ldquo; traffic sticks rdquo; recruiting a lot of more, the US group selected side station team, but Tencent's business, whether it is the main social, games or a little peripheral film and television, entertainment, it is difficult to fight a lot, the US group formed a real Synergistic effect. Even to a certain extent, the business of both sides runs counter to each other, like a lot of used social communication means, in WeChat's view, it is “inducing sharing”, even if there is “investment relationship”, it has to be sealed. & rdquo;.

Therefore, to help the United States and the United States to become bigger and stronger in their own systems, innovative business model has never been Tencent's plan, as long as they are in Tencent's system, Tencent has achieved its goal: to expand the use of its own traffic.

Can you fight more and what the US group got?A Tencent & ldquo; traffic game & rdquo; access qualification only.

To use these traffic after entering the game, you have to pay Tencent separately. In the first quarter of this year, the total cost of payment processing, advertising and cloud services paid to Tencent reached more than 200 million. If there is no such expenditure, it will almost achieve a breakeven.

The situation of the US group was even more embarrassing. In order to fill the blank of the payment link, the company was willing to go online and promote the payment of the US group without a license. When it was time to enter the WeChat service window, the US group could not pay the accident and was "castrated": WeChat can only use WeChat to pay for it. The flow of WeChat to the US group was said to be used to promote WeChat payment.

Sometimes it is difficult for you to tell whether Tencent has given core resources to the invested companies, or whether these companies have become long-term binding customers of Tencent.

But only in this way willingly do "Bind the customer", Tencent's "WeChat Internet" is likely to open a door for them. If you don't see it, the "outsiders" of the vibrato can't appear in WeChat.

However, when the fight and the US group trapped in Tencent's traffic for a long time, their own advantages will be "swallowed", especially in the context of WeChat trying to build a small program "ecology".

In the small program, most of the functions of the App can be realized. The traffic of the US team is bound to drop sharply. Over time, they will become one of the thousands of small programs in WeChat, even less and less important. That one. In an exclusive interview with Caijing, Huang Wei realized that: “I am dead, Tencent will not die, Tencent has thousands of sons. ”

This is obviously not what the fight and the US group want.

The most fundamental thing is that with the development of the United States and the United States, the flow of “business flow” will soon become smaller and smaller.

This is particularly significant in the fight, and the prospectus shows that the sales and marketing expenses of a lot of sales have risen in the past three years, and accounted for 92.3% of the total revenue in the first quarter of this year.It shows that the difficulty of getting a lot of customers has increased dramatically, which is the sign that Tencent’s traffic dividend is exhausted.Surprisingly, this bonus period lasted only for more than a year.

Huang Wei and Wang Xing should be aware that warehousing, logistics, operations, payments, and big data are fundamental to e-commerce and O2O business, but this is obviously not what Tencent is good at. Even indulging in the traffic of Tencent, it will delay the cultivation of core competitiveness.

In June of this year, many people were even exposed to the rights of merchants to defend their rights and protest against fines, which showed that the business management ability of merchants was weak. In the interview, Zhang Zhen also admitted that there is not much time to solve the basic problems of e-commerce.

Empty traffic, difficult to give business resources and guidance, resulting in every investment or strategic cooperation of Tencent is a bit of a slap in the beginning, it looks very good, can finally come back, or to find another way to make up the debt.

In 2014, Jingdong reached strategic cooperation with Tencent, and the first Jingdong company to enter the WeChat service window had experienced this bottleneck experience two years ago.

According to Caixin's report, in May 2016, Jingdong CFO Huang Xuande explained why its growth rate declined. “In the entire vertical category, the traffic conversion brought by Tencent has experienced a significant decline in the quarter. This has an adverse effect on the growth rate. ”

After the traffic dividend was exhausted, JD GMV (total merchandise transaction) growth rate has been lower than Tmall for four consecutive quarters. How to get rid of the dependence on Tencent's traffic and find new growth points is the most worrying thing in Jingdong. In mid-June this year, JD.com suddenly introduced Google's investment, which is obviously one of its steps to “go to Tencent”.

The lessons of the previous car can be the teacher of the future. Jingdong, which has already been listed, is still like this. It’s more urgent to fight more and more than the US group’s “go to Tencent”. Under such a background, the key to struggling with the United States and the United States is to introduce funds and resources outside of Tencent and go back to building the “infrastructure” of the business.

How easy is this?

It’s hard enough to go out from the comfort zone of “Traffic”; it can be a batch of superstitious “flows” companies will “let the second half of the Internet” hand over to WeChat, Tencent, any attempt to leave Tencent“ "Traffic games", focusing on the development of their own business "rebellious", almost all met Tencent's attack. Choosing to become a public company may be a road to Huashan.

But this Internet, which is forced to fight a lot, and the US group rushed to the market, how can it be normal "Internet ecology"?

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