“Although the environment is not good, but we must firmly believe that a good company will stand out.” Xiaomi’s founder, chairman and CEO Lei Jun said at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange’s live speech.
Everyone knows the story. The opening price of Xiaomi on the day of the listing was 16.6 Hong Kong dollars, which was 2.35% lower than the issue price of 17 Hong Kong dollars. At the close, Xiaomi's share price was HK$16.80, a decrease of 1.18% from the issue price and a total market value of approximately 375.919 billion.
Wen Hao understands
Edit | Qin Yan
Source ignorance notes (ID: dongdong_note)
Underestimation, this is a common view in the industry after the break.
In fact, whether it is Xiaomi, or the next Yingke, Meituan, Betta, etc., under the bad environment, being underestimated, broken, falling or inevitable.
What is gratifying is that no matter whether it is Lei Jun or Feng Yousheng, Wang Xing, the founders of this wave of listings are not listed for liquidation or financial pressure. In their people's setting, put the company's transcripts and stamina into the capital market to test and go, “over-represented”, to discuss a bigger future, is the starry sea behind their listing plan.
Take the live broadcast industry as an example. This year, it is called the IPO New Year. There are tiger teeth in the front, and there are now customers. Next, there may be betta, pepper and so on. Compared with the game live broadcast of tiger teeth and betta, the target player who is positioned as the show is born with “lonely”. In the words of Bian Yousheng, it is that the more people in Yue Zhai, the more likely they are to make good social products, because he knows what is lonely. ”
The lonely lord Feng Huansheng, from the last year Xuan Ya’s “snake swallowing elephant” was defeated, and he must have one more page in his life. He realized that there is more than enough heart, and with this, Hong Kong’s ringing bell is coming soon. For the “lonely”, “show”, live broadcast has a new understanding of the joint venture market preferences, and a future understanding of future development.
It is the so-called experience that I know the taste of crying, crying and laughing. In the three years since the establishment of Yingke, the road that has passed and the water that has passed through is actually a true portrayal of the battle of thousands of broadcasts. In the first two years of slaughter, the major live broadcast platforms experienced rapid growth in anxiety. So when the trend faded, many live broadcast platforms could not touch the north.
And Yingke, can survive, the reason is not only a unique understanding of "lonely", but also because it is a platform with technical genes, from Fengyousheng to the following team, using technical thinking, technological innovation To get the live broadcast, the resulting party is a more stable development momentum relative to the competition.
If the IPO is regarded as a historical node, in fact, the battle of the live broadcast platform this year is likely to debut in the second half. It is foreseeable that with the increase of the platform of the IPO, it is very important for the players on the stage to pick up and how to break the deadlock. At this point, Yingke may have a confession to the industry and investors after its IPO, that is, not only the live broadcast of the game, but also the technology market and business realization, which can also bring to the capital market and users. Surprise, this kind of exploration is also expected to raise the value of the customer, let the target in the capital circle, find the right direction, and go to poetry and distance.
Being underestimated is just a pain
Yingke Live CEO Feng Yousheng
Xiaomi is not the only underestimated in this wave of listings. At least from the current point of view, there will be some underestimation of the Yingke, which will follow the pace of Xiaomi.
According to the amount of funds raised, Yingke's highest valuation is HK$10.5 billion, or about RMB8.8 billion. In connection with the 6 billion valuation given by Xuanya International in September last year, the valuation of Yingke has risen by about 2 billion.
Compared with Yingke's peers, it is more likely to be underestimated. When Huya plans to IPO, it is estimated to be between RMB 16.035 billion and 18.44 billion yuan, and now it is about 43.9 billion yuan. Compared with Momo, Yingke's 2017 revenue is 46% of Momo, net profit is 37% of Momo, and monthly active users are 23% of Momo, but its valuation is only the current Momo market value. 14%-17.5%. Compared with YY, Yingke's revenue in 2017 is 33.7% of YY, net profit is 31.5% of YY, monthly active users are 30% of YY, and YY market value is currently about 5.3 billion US dollars. From this point of view, The valuation of Yingke is only about 23%-28% of YY.
Even from the price-earnings ratio, Bloomberg's price-to-earnings ratio is 93.73 times. According to one of the sponsors of Yingke IPO, Deutsche Bank expects that the profit of Yingke in 2010 will be nearly 1.016 billion yuan, and the expected profit in 2019 and 2020 will reach 1.216 billion yuan and 1.394 billion yuan. According to this, after the over-allotment of Yingke, the price-earnings ratio is about 7.4~9.6 times. This price-earnings ratio is not only significantly lower than that of its peer company, even if it is more than 30 times the price-earnings ratio of Hong Kong-listed technology companies, Yingke is still an undervalued party.
So why are Xiaomi and Yingke being underestimated? From the perspective of the big environment, the main reason is actually the cold winter environment of the capital market brought about by the Sino-US trade war. The trade war, the Fed's interest rate hike, the RMB exchange rate plummeted, and the global capital markets all fell to varying degrees. The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 2,800 points. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index has also entered the bear market.
Not only Xiaomi and Yingke, but also the Internet companies listed in Hong Kong in the first half of the year, whether they are Zhongan, Yixin, Ping An Good Doctor, Remittance World, etc., their market value has been seriously shrunk after listing. Like a good doctor, it was broken on the second day of the listing. Zhongan also suffered a break after two months. It can be said that the overall trend of the new technology stocks after the listing has made the investment sentiment and confidence in the capital market decline. In the current turbulent secondary market environment, it is not difficult to understand that Xiaomi and Yingke are undervalued. Can't escape.
From the perspective of individual differences, a specific reason for the low valuation of Xiaomi is a board resolution passed by Xiaomi in the first half of the year, that is, the comprehensive net profit margin of Xiaomi Hardware will never exceed 5%. If there is more than one part, return the excess to the user. Although this is Xiaomi's self-confidence and sincerity to the users, the capital market will not be the same, so it is not surprising to lower the valuation of Xiaomi.
While Yingke is underestimated, it is related to the show rather than the live broadcast of the game. The live broadcast of the game itself comes with a halo, and the game industry that relies on the big game makes it easier for tigers and betta to realize the realization. Although the performance of Yingke's show live broadcast is also considerable from the perspective of rewards, but Yingke has long been conservative in the advertising business in order not to hurt the user experience, and also makes the capital market unable to see the persistence of Yingke. And the future. This is why it is underestimated.
The capital market is not just listening to stories, but the future upswing space is the key
Although telling a good story is the basis for attracting capital markets, it is not all the drama. For Xiaomi, Yingke, and later US groups and bettavers, it is even more important to broaden the room for increase in the future.
Taking Yingke as an example, its business is mainly divided into three major segments: live broadcast, online advertising and other businesses. At present, the point of restricting the capital market to its imagination is that most of its revenue comes from the live broadcast business: in the three years of 2015, 2016 and 2017, the proportion of the live broadcast business accounted for 94.6% of its total revenue. 99.8%, 99.4%.
This ratio seems to be terrible. Although it is a live broadcast company itself, it is crucial to expand other related businesses based on the live broadcast business. In fact, Huya is also a company that “re-lives” business. Therefore, the market is also treated as a category of tiger teeth and Yingke.
And understand the notes that compared to the tiger teeth is limited by the positioning of its game live broadcast, in fact, Yingke's show can have a larger expansion space. For example, Live + Variety is a direction to upgrade from the show. The show itself is a derivative of pan-entertainment, and the variety and vitality of the variety show, it can be said that it can not only expand the live broadcast business itself, but also deepen the exploration of the advertising business. Yingke has set up an advertising sales team this year, and introduced the sponsor Bishengyuan and the strategic cooperative domestic sports brand Jordan Sports in the annual draft event "Sakura Girl". This kind of live variety innovation brings the advertising business of Yingke. Bloom and bear fruit.
For another example, with Focus Media and Station B becoming the cornerstone investors of Yingke, Yingke has many imaginative spaces to integrate innovative business with the resources of these two companies. For example, in the road show held in Hong Kong at noon on June 27, Feng Yousheng chose Focus Media and B Station as the cornerstone investors because of their complementary advantages. “Dome of the media has a point in more than 300 cities, and Yingke is also composed of countless small screens. When the main income of the customer is from the C-end, the advertising is complementary in the future. Yingke is also exploring the interaction between the small screen and the big screen. So she chose Focus Media.
Another imaginary space for Yingke is that its direct mode allows it to have more deep-rooted “rooms” such as entertainment industry chaining and diversification. With the words of Jiang Gupeng, the chief strategy manager of Yingke, it is: “Yingke is direct-oriented, and there is no need for many agents to allocate resources and traffic in this link. Every user can directly on Yingke. It settles with the platform and communicates with his friends. The anchor can pick up the mobile phone and broadcast it. The user can directly give gifts, and the cash withdrawal is also directly extracted from the platform, so it can be realized by technical means and application means, which provides the platform. Stable cash flow. ”
This direct mode allows the guest to have more flexible space for live broadcast and live broadcast. In other words, the game's live tigers need to pay for game copyright and event cost, high-definition bandwidth costs. The pan-entertainment and the live broadcast of the show are more direct. Even the live broadcast of the show host can be broadcasted, and the cash flow can be directly realized. In this way, Yingke is more like Xiaomi. Even if it is not profitable from the main business, it can still expand the more imaginative opportunities by deepening the industrial chain and diversification.
Even after returning to the live broadcast business, the data shows that the penetration rate of China Mobile's live broadcast users in 2017 is only 20%, and will increase rapidly to over 30% in 2018, and the mobile video penetration rate will reach 70% in the same period. We have reason to believe that in the next 3 to 5 years, the market size and users of mobile live broadcast will maintain a growth rate of not less than 30% per year. This plate is actually big enough, but the current exploration is the water.
In Fengyou’s view, the core strength of Yingke’s customers is the high consumption, high-value crowds, and the diversity of videos achieved by the national live broadcast. Bian Yousheng also revealed that Yingke will sink to the second and third lines. From this point of view, even in the live broadcast business, Yingke's future room for growth is also worth looking forward to.
From Xiaomi to Yingke, the capital market is not just about telling stories. The performance of Xiaomi's first day of listing also shows us that the market is optimistic about a stock, not focusing on the present. Despite the current break, fall, and underestimation. But looking to the future, as Lei Jun said, a good company will definitely stand out.
Looking back at Yingke, in view of the fact that the late Yingke is expected to be included in the Hong Kong stock exchange, it can obtain the blessing of mainland funds, which also makes its valuation space have a greater imagination. The Tigers, which belong to the live broadcast industry, have doubled their listings in less than a month. In contrast, the future performance of Yingke will be at least not too bad. Moreover, Huya was the first to achieve profitability until Q1 this year, and Yingke achieved profitability three years ago, and this year's compound annual growth rate is 2229.1%. All in all, Xiaomi and Yingke, whose performance is more certain, are underestimated or just interlude, and the future trend is worth looking forward to.