(original title: Tencent is the IPO harvester? Stock price "roller coaster" or the halo effect)
Since the second half of 2017, the tide of Internet listing is still advancing. According to statistics from Nandu correspondents, nearly 20 China Internet Corporation listed applications for US stocks and Hong Kong stocks in the first half of 2018. Since June, there are 7 companies listed on the prospectus. This week, Xiaomi and Ying Ke will be listed on the Hong Kong stock market.
It is worth noting that behind the Internet Co listed on the Internet Co, the Tencent has been flashed frequently, including the already listed B stations, the direct live tiger teeth and the spelling of the shares that have been submitted to the stock market, the enantio, the US group review, and Cheng Yilong. Meanwhile, Tencent announced recently that it also plans to split its online music entertainment business in the US.
With the advent of another wave of Chinese Internet companies, Tencent will become the largest IPO dividend harvester. But who is the most profitable among so many "Pro sons" and "dry sons"? Who's the worst?
The third wave of Internet companies listed on the market
"Tencent" in a year of 7 games of IPO
"From 2000 to the present, there are three waves of listing fever in China's Internet companies. The first wave is the gateway before and after 2000.websiteAnd Ctrip, represented by the information matching Internet companies, the second wave is the Internet and traditional business combination of Internet companies listed wave, such as Alibaba,JD.COMSuch as the e-commerce platform, the third wave is the pure mobile Internet companies coming into the market boom, mainly involving life services, mobile social, payment and other vertical areas, the founding partner Huang Haijun to South reporters, the past 20 years, the development of the Internet is flow driven, but at present, this development The model goes to the mature stage, "each vertical field has a giant firm to occupy, the flow of each field has been divided by the giant, the important sign of maturity is to go on the market."
In fact, the third wave of listing began in the second half of 2017. In September 28, 2017, the Internet insurance company landed on the Hongkong stock exchange online; in November 8th, the Tencent group was listed in Hongkong; in November 9th, Sogou landed on the New York Stock Exchange; in November 16th, Yaxin group was listed on Hong Kong exchange.
Until 2018, the wave of listing became more intense. In March 28th of this year,videoWeb site beep beep (B station) was listed in the United States; in March 29th, Iqiyi was listed on NASDAQ in the United States; in May 3rd, millet formally submitted a prospectus to the Hong Kong exchange and was officially listed in July 9th; in May 11th, the tiger tooth was listed on the New York stock exchange; June 27th Yudan used to be listed on NASDAQ; and in June 21st, Cheng Yilong was in the same June 21st. The HKEx submitted its prospectus; in June 25th, the group submitted a prospectus to the Hong Kong exchange and submitted a prospectus to the American Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in June 30th and landed in Hong Kong stocks in July 12th.
It is worth noting that 10 of these companies have a Tencent share background, of which 6 have been successfully listed, 3 have been submitted to the stock market, and Tencent recently announced that it is planning to split its online music entertainment business in the United States, and Tencent music is in front of the market.
"Last year, the Tencent and Ali's mergers and acquisitions were frequent. In fact, the oligarchs were cleaning the battlefield, the US group, the drops, the hungry, and other fields were included in the oligarchy, and others were not willing to be purchased only to go on the market independently this year," Huang Haijun points out. In fact, in addition to the Tencent, Alibaba and Baidu are both profitable in the IP O boom, in which Baidu is a major shareholder of Iqiyi and you, and Alibaba invested in the United States and Sogou.
Total stock market value is up to 82 billion yuan
Hongkong listed companies encountered stock price "roller coaster"
In addition to traffic, investment has gradually become the core of Tencent. In 2017, a total of more than 120 companies were invested in Tencent, more than the other two in BAT. Li Zhaohui, a partner in charge of Tencent, said at the 2017 global partnership opening meeting that the total amount of investment in the Tencent was more than hundreds of billions of dollars and the number of companies with a volume of $1 billion was between 50 and 100, while Tencent Inc President Liu Chiping revealed that these companies added in the year of early 2018. The value has exceeded the market value of the Tencent itself.
These companies are now entering the harvest period. Nandu reporter combed the market value of the 6 companies listed above and the share of the Tencent, and found that if the market value of the first day of the listed company was calculated according to the market value of the first day of the market, the total market value of the 6 companies held by the Tencent was up to RMB 82 billion yuan.
"Tencent is sitting on the half of China's Internet traffic, but it is not good at e-commerce, search and so on, so the best way to enter the bureau is equity investment," said Wang Guanxiong, a senior commentator. The Tencent's Big Mac status in Hong Kong shares also brings good results to the Tencent companies listed in Hong Kong.
It is worth noting that the investment endorsement of the Tencent department is conducive to the understanding of the listed Unicorn enterprises in the capital market of Hongkong, but can not guarantee their success in the stock price. For example, Tencent's "Pro son" Wen Wen group experienced a downward trend after its opening up, closing at HK $75.25 as of July 6th. In September 28, 2017, the opening price of Hong Kong listed in Hong Kong was HK $69, and the issuance price of HK $59.7 rose by 15.6%, but the price breaking market value evaporated nearly 70 billion, and the regulatory layer was brighter in June 28th.
Yi Xin group reached the highest price of 10.18 yuan on the first day of listing, and its market value reached HK $63 billion 900 million. In the next few days, the company entered the decline channel, after listing fourth daily daily received 7.12 yuan, fell short of price, then fell, in July 6th, Yi Xin group shares fell to 3.15 Hong Kong dollars.
When Sogou was listed as "China's first stock AI to the US", the issue price was $13 per share and a market value of about RMB 34 billion yuan, but the stock price dropped to about $10 since July.
For the "roller coaster" type of stock price, Huang Haijun believes that the reason is that the issue price is too high. "When the market is overvalued, the Hongkong market is too short of high-tech Internet companies, so China's Internet companies are initially blind," the Yellow Sea army said. "Read Wen group is only a non core business under the Tencent, and it is difficult to become a valuable listed company in China, but Hong Kong shares share the shares in China. The public recognizes it because investors do not understand their value. "The halo effect of the Tencent Department has led these enterprises to be overestimated to a certain extent," Wang Guanxiong pointed out.
Huang Navy believes that with the influx of more and more Internet companies, the Hong Kong stock market is also returning to reason. "In the past, the two or three lines of the Internet companies have been listed on the edge of the two or three line, which has led to a bright future of investors, which leads to a high valuation, but the Hongkong market should reconsider how to give a reasonable price to the Internet concept stock as the Hongkong, the US group and other truly component Internet companies land in Hong Kong stocks. It is in the process of the return of value. "
The largest contribution of the market value of the reading group
The U. S. group comments on whether to catch up after the listing
Nonetheless, Tencent has gained a lot of investment income. According to the value of the Tencent shareholding, according to the closing value of the above 6 listed companies as of July 9th, the reading group is still the "Tencent" unicorn enterprise which has the largest contribution to Tencent. The price of the group is HK $75.250, with a total market value of HK $68 billion 208 million. Tencent indirectly controls 65.38% stake, and its shareholding value is 44 billion 594 million Hong Kong dollars, or about 37 billion 700 million yuan.
The next is the direct live of the tiger teeth. As of Tuesday, the total market capitalization of tiger teeth was $6 billion 790 million, and Tencent held a value of $2 billion 349 million, or about 15 billion 600 million yuan. The top third is Sogou. As of July 9th, Sogou's total market capitalization was $4 billion 278 million, and Tencent's shareholding value was $1 billion 940 million, or about 12 billion 800 million yuan. In addition, the equity value of Tencent held by Zhong An insurance, Yixin group and B station is 9 billion yuan, 5 billion 600 million yuan and 1 billion 300 million yuan respectively. It can be seen that in the past year, Tencent has gained about 82 billion yuan investment income from 6 enterprises IPO, accounting for more than 30% of its total revenue in 2017.
In addition, if the US group comments on the valuation of 30 billion US dollars in the last round of financing, the Tencent holds a 20.14% value of about 40 billion yuan. After the successful landing of the Hong Kong stock market, the group will undoubtedly be the most valuable Unicorn enterprise which is the most valuable investment of the Tencent department.
Tencent and WeChat pay for new battlefields
However, in the eyes of many investors, Tencent's return on foreign investment in recent years is much more than the harvest of IPO dividends.
"Tencent is not a financial investor, not to make an equity money," Huang Haijun pointed out that a large amount of foreign investment in Tencent has two meanings. "One is the strategic layout, and the strengths of Ali in business can permeate all aspects of life services. The focus of Tencent's no competition is only through participation in the stock market." In the live service and other scenes, second is the landing of the payment and other business. From this point of view, the head business in every life service scene in the Tencent means that the WeChat payment has a new battlefield.
Gobi venture partner Xu Chen also pointed out to South reporters, "financial returns for Tencent are the next, through investment to enhance the overall ecological value of Tencent for Tencent is far greater than the significance of the financial return."
How much ecological value did these unicorns bring to Tencent? This is announced from the prospectus and Tencent pays.Cloud serviceRelated transactions, such as marketing, can be seen.
Among them, in terms of payment commission, the prospectus by the US group showed that the total Commission on payment services to Tencent in 2015, 2016 and 2017 were 39 million 300 thousand yuan, 102 million yuan and 306 million yuan respectively, and the rate of growth was three times for three years in a row.
In 2016 and 2017, the total amount of Tencent's service and technical services used by the Tencent was RMB 9 million 500 thousand and 18 million 800 thousand yuan, respectively.
In addition, there are marketing publicity costs. "As of 2015, 2016 and December 31, 2017, we (excluding the motorcycle and Affiliated Companies) paid 51 million 600 thousand yuan, 128 million yuan and 87 million 800 thousand yuan for the marketing and advertising services of the Tencent. It can be calculated that only the US group commented in 2017 contributed 413 million yuan to the Tencent.
In addition, the reading group also disclosed in the related transactions that its promotion services, commission fees and cloud services paid to the Tencent group in 2017 were 80 million, 13 million 500 thousand, and 50 million yuan respectively, with a cumulative amount of over 140 million yuan.
The prospectus in the same way revealed that its cooperation with Tencent includes access to Tencent social platforms as traffic entry, the use of Tencent maps to sell tourism products and the use of cloud services. In the three year of 2015, 2016 and 2017, Tongcheng Yilong paid to the Tencent cloud service for about 14 million yuan, 43 million yuan and 52 million yuan respectively. In 2016 and 2017, the use of Tencent map mobile applications sold to Tencent was about 53 thousand yuan and 230 thousand yuan respectively. It is worth noting that the cost of access to WeChat's palace has not been announced.
In the past two years, the rise of a social electronic business tycoon, also in its June 30th prospectus, said, "in February 2018, more than five years of strategic cooperation framework agreement with its major shareholder Tencent, the two sides in the payment of solutions, cloud services and user interaction and other areas of cooperation."
This means that in the next few years, the more than 10 listed companies (including the collage of the shares that have been submitted, the US League review and Cheng Yilong) will use WeChat payment, the Tencent cloud and the Tencent's marketing promotion services. "It also means that Tencent will hold shares for a long time and will not sell stocks when they are listed," Xu Chen said.
But in Wang Guanxiong's view, investing in stocks is not an effective way to boost payments, cloud services and other businesses. "Payment and cloud are the two leading sectors of the Alibaba, and also the most direct competition between Ali and Tencent. Tencent is eager to catch up and bring some business growth through the linkage with the investment company, but there is no way to make a significant boost," Wang said. The reason is the cloud and payment of the Tencent. There is no exclusivity, and Ali is mostly controlled by absolute control.
The advantages and disadvantages of the halo effect of the Tencent
Need to establish private user channels and traffic entry
For unicorn businesses, access to Tencent also means access to traffic. It is noteworthy that, "as the traffic cost of the mobile Internet is getting higher and higher, the traffic monopoly is becoming more and more obvious, and the dependence of Internet companies on Tencent traffic is intensifying," Wang Guanxiong pointed out.
Data revealed in the same journey book show that the average monthly active users of Tongcheng and yolong increased from nearly 90 million in 2015 to 120 million in 2017, with an annual growth rate of 16.9%. Over the same period, the average monthly paid users of the same process and elong increased from 4 million in 2015 to 15 million in 2017, with a compound annual growth rate of 99.6%.
In this case, the flow support of the Tencent has become a major growth driving force for active users and paid users in recent years, but on the other hand, excessive reliance on Tencent's flow has also been a potential risk for the same journey.
It is understood that Cheng Yilong is currently operating WeChat and the mobile QQ payment platform "wallet" interface "ticket ticket" and "Hotel" exclusive port, but also on the WeChat platform on the opening of the same Cheng YilongSmall program.
The book of prospectus data shows that in 2017, Tencent has brought about 80 million average monthly active users to Tongcheng Yilong through the above platform, while only 28 million average monthly active users of Tongcheng and Yilong's A PP end are only 14 million, which can be calculated, and more than 65% of the active users from Cheng Yilong are from Tencent.
In addition, the proportion of monthly pay users from Tongcheng Yilong is even higher from Tencent. "Most of our monthly active users in 2017 and our monthly pay users are mostly from Tencent's platform."
Sogou also emphasized the pulling effect of Tencent on its traffic in the prospectus. As of June 2017, about 38.2% of the search flow of search dogs came from the Tencent, and reading text group showed in the prospectus that literary works were distributed on the Internet platform of Tencent on the one hand, and the two was to collaborate on the adaptation or adaptation of literary works in the adaptation or adaptation of literary works.
At the same time, a number of "Tencent" companies are also aware of the potential risks associated with Tencent cooperation. In the risk reminding of the prospectus, the collage is early warning that if the cooperation with the Tencent is limited, collage may face adverse effects; as described by Cheng Yilong in the risk factor part of the prospectus, "the difference in the relationship with Tencent may have a significant negative impact on our business and growth prospects."
Another part of the Tencent department also started risk aversion. Among them, in addition to the cooperation with the Tencent, the company also involves several eco system partners, such as ant gold clothing, mogujie.com, the temple library, the same journey, and so on, through these fragmented scenes of the insurance products, to establish a connection with the users, to continuously reduce the cost of customers. The "Pro son" reading group, including the Tencent, also claimed in the prospectus that it did not rely heavily on the Tencent, pointing out that the cost of the Tencent was 2.3% and 6% in 2015 and 2016, respectively, as the main online reading platform for reading, compared with 32.8% in 2016.
"The dependence on Tencent's flow is an undeniable fact," Wang Guanxiong pointed out. But Tencent did not ask for exclusive cooperation, so the risk was not large. Many people in the industry told Nandu reporters that at present, the Tencent will not easily sell the shares held by the Tencent and its shareholding companies, so it will not bring risks to the Tencent's flow dependence, but as a listed company, the long-term steady development still needs to be established. User channel and traffic entry.
Co ordinate: ETUDE of Zhen Tian
Writing: Ma Ningning, a journalist from Nandu
Cai Siman, an intern