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Xiaomi finally succeeded in listing, but to get more recognition, Lei Jun still has to work hard.

via:博客园     time:2018/7/12 19:02:34     readed:366


After experiencing the ups and downs of the plot, Xiaomi finally succeeded in listing, but to gain greater recognition, Lei Jun still has to work hard.

Original title: Xiaomi climbing the cover story

Interview "China Entrepreneur" reporter Li Biwen Mina

Li Bianwen

Ma Jiying

At 9:30 on July 9th, Lei Jun sounded the buzz of Xiaomi's listing. Xiaomi became the first company to be listed in the HKEx's IPO policy reform.

This is the second time that Lei Jun has stood in the knockout hall of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as an executive. Compared with the last Jinshan listing, the bronze beside is bigger. It is said that this is the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's special plan to meet the new economic company to spend 300,000 yuan in Shanxi. This time, Lei Jun’s identity is the founder of Xiaomi.

Before Xiaomi, Lei Jun has made a name for himself and led Jinshan to the market. However, both the market value and the influence are relatively limited. For Lei Jun, who is strict in self-demand, he is eager to stand on a bigger stage and create world-class products. The establishment of Xiaomi was regarded as the last venture by Lei Jun, and therefore he tried his best.

Recognized as a “labor model” by the business community, Lei Jun’s contribution has also been “rewarded”.

Four years ago, on December 29, 2014, Xiaomi completed a $1.1 billion F-round financing with a valuation of $45 billion. After the financing, Xiaomi became the unlisted unicorn company with the highest valuation in the world at that time.

“I think big companies are all born in the context of a big market and technological change. Now, one of the most important elements of Xiaomi’s success is smart, mobile Internet, and functional machine-to-smart machines. Xiaomi has also accelerated the speed of domestic functional-to-smart machines, rapidly reducing the price of smart phones over the past few thousand dollars, enabling more people to have a smartphone experience. This is the most important thing, taking advantage of the trend. “Shun is the capital partner Xu Da, “When the trend is right, there is a strong team, it is possible to achieve a big project”.


Shun as a capital partner, Xu Dalai is a very good friend of Lei Jun. From Jinshan to Xiaomi, he has always witnessed the success of Lei Jun. Photography: Shi Xiaobing

Now Xiaomi can finally disappear from the list of the top five unlisted unicorns in the world, and move towards a new starting point.

It is rumored that Xiaomi expects the valuation to be as high as 200 billion US dollars. According to Bloomberg News, the initial millet executive team hopes that the valuation is 100 billion US dollars, and finally the millet's pre-market valuation is 54.3 billion US dollars. In the middle of this, Lei Jun experienced what kind of mental journey, and others could not know.

On the day of the listing, more than 200 Chinese and foreign media were present, and Xiaomi executives also wore orange-red twill ties. Orange is the representative color of Xiaomi.

Prior to this, the orange-red storm represented by Xiaomi was scraped into the hardware circle. With the explosive thinking, direct sales + social mode, Xiaomi became the top five mobile phone manufacturers in the global mobile phone shipments, and also changed the profitability of the mobile phone industry. Profiting through mobile phones has become a profit through value-added services, affecting the industry pattern and traditional sales model of domestic cottage phones, and building a new relationship with users. This group of users scattered in all corners of the country calls themselves “rice flour”.

In 2017, Xiaomi achieved operating income of RMB 114.6 billion and net profit of RMB -43.899 billion (mainly due to changes in the fair value of convertible redeemable preferred shares). Its main business covers three sectors: intelligent hardware, IoT and Internet services. IoT The number of independent devices is the highest in the world.

On the other hand, the new economic companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2017 broke through. Unicorn companies such as Yixin Group, Yuewen Group and Razer have fallen below the issue price. The growing Sino-US trade war, the Fed’s interest rate hike, and the domestic financial deleveraging policy have caused the entire capital market to fluctuate. The Hang Seng Index has fallen 4.13% this year.

Under such a general trend, Xiaomi finally gave investors a relative price, setting the IPO issue price at the lower limit, that is, HK$17 per share, corresponding to a valuation of US$53.9 billion, and Xiaomi Group's stock code is “ld”; 1810”, net financing of 24 billion Hong Kong dollars, oversubscribed 9.5 times. Compared with the 650 times oversubscription of Ping An’s doctors last year and the 620 times over-raising of the reading group, there is a big difference. But it is worth mentioning that Xiaomi has become the top three IPOs in the history of global technology stocks, the other two are Alibaba and Facebook.

Fu Wei Securities CEO Wei Biwei believes that the IPO period is affected by the general trend. Now, in this market environment, it is very good to record about 10 times oversubscription. More importantly, “Millet has a large volume and a large amount of financing”.

On the day of the listing, Xiaomi broke open and eventually closed at HK$16.88 per share, down 1.18% from the issue price. However, when interviewed by CCTV media on the spot, Lei Jun was more optimistic about this, “from the low point, it is also a good thing. ” At the post-mortem celebration feast, Lei Jun bluntly said that the successful listing of Xiaomi means great success and is not too concerned about short-term fluctuations. As of July 11, Xiaomi Group closed at HK$19 with a market capitalization of US$54.16 billion. On the same day, Lei Jun was ranked 12th in China's rich list with a net worth of $12.4 billion.

Next, one of the questions about Xiaomi is that as the growth of the mobile phone industry gradually peaks, how does Xiaomi find another huge market outside the mobile phone industry? According to industry sources close to Xiaomi, the next track that Lei Jun chose may be a car.

Dramatic mutation

Since Xiaomi’s planned listing at the beginning of this year, the price of the colorful city around Xiaomi’s headquarters has risen quietly. Some media have predicted that Xiaomi’s listing will create ten billionaires and thousands of millionaires.

Xiaomi's prospectus shows that Xiaomi's preferred shareholders have signed a relevant agreement with Xiaomi, which requires the company to be listed before December 31, 2019. If it fails to be listed successfully, other preferred shareholders other than F-share preferred shareholders from that date. Or most F-share preferred shareholders have the right to request the company to redeem the preferred shares held by them. The redemption price is confirmed according to the investment cost plus 8% compound interest plus the unpaid dividend or the market fair value at the time of redemption. .

The listing is on the line, but from the preparation for the listing to the final slamming of the listing, Xiaomi has undergone a process of constantly adjusting the valuation.


On July 9th, Xiaomi Group was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The partners who used to drink millet porridge also witnessed the historic moment of Xiaomi. Source: Respondents for the picture

In June 2017, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange solicited opinions on the IPO New Deal, and opened up the arms of different companies and non-revenue biotech companies. The policy was officially implemented on April 30 this year, and Xiaomi became the first company to apply for listing. A new economic company with different rights.

At the same time, the CSRC is also actively launching a pilot project for innovative companies to attract red-chip companies with a market capitalization of at least RMB 200 billion and not listed overseas. The revenue is not less than RMB 3 billion and the valuation is not low. A new economic company with 20 billion yuan. Xiaomi was also included in the list of CDRs issued and submitted a CDR issuance application.

According to the plan at the time, Xiaomi will be listed on the Hong Kong stocks and issue CDRs. The base shares of the CDRs will be no less than 7% of the total share capital of the CDR and Hong Kong stocks. The plan is to raise about US$5 billion through CDR. At that time, market participants said that Xiaomi's valuation was between $70 billion and $100 billion.

On June 19th, it was supposed to be the day when the China Securities Regulatory Commission reviewed Xiaomi's CDR. I didn't expect the plot to be rewritten suddenly. Xiaomi announced on the official Weibo that the CDR was suspended and listed on the Hong Kong stock market. This news caused the industry to be at a loss.

According to Caixin, due to concerns about the public issuance of CDRs and Hong Kong stocks in the Mainland, the decision to delay the trading of Hong Kong stocks is mainly due to the need to protect CDRs.

Prior to this, the Industrial Wealth Association, which was regarded as a new economic company, opened its daily limit after experiencing three daily limit of listing, and hit the daily limit on the fifth day after listing. This may also aggravate the CSRC's concerns about the CDR issue.

Since then, Xiaomi began to concentrate on preparing for the listing of Hong Kong stocks. However, when the cornerstone investors were introduced, the phenomenon of Chinese capital and foreign capital was cold. Judging from the announced Xiaomi Cornerstone investors, CIC Zhongcai, China Mobile, SF Holdings, Qualcomm, China Merchants Group, Poly Group, and Guokai Finance subscribed for US$548 million, and no foreign investment institutions. At the same time, affected by the CDR suspension, Xiaomi's valuation range was further adjusted to US$55 billion to US$70 billion.

Lin Zijun, director of Channel Development Department of Founder Securities (Hong Kong), said that due to the relatively conservative foreign investment institutions, it was considered that the valuation of Xiaomi 55 billion to 70 billion US dollars was expensive and the participation enthusiasm was not high. Some foreign investors do not seem to agree with Xiaomi's model of pricing according to Internet companies.

In fact, Xiaomi received feedback from the Securities and Futures Commission on its CDR application, a total of 84 questions, including questions about Xiaomi's positioning as an Internet company.

Generally speaking, because Internet companies have network effects, investors are willing to give higher P/E ratios, while hardware companies have relatively no such growth effect. Therefore, although the cash flow is good, the price-earnings ratio given by investors is not high. The price-earnings ratio is only 17 times before the number. The difference in price-to-earnings ratio between the two industries ultimately led to a far-reaching valuation gap.

In order to show Xiaomi's Internet positioning, Lei Jun said at a recent conference that the comprehensive net profit margin of Xiaomi hardware will never exceed 5%. If there is any excess, it will be returned to the user.

In the eyes of people close to Xiaomi, Xiaomi is a new species, which is fundamentally different from traditional hardware companies. “Millet is an Internet company with a hardware jacket. Most of the profits come from Internet services, including distribution services, music, video, games, e-commerce and potential financial services. This is the driving force for Xiaomi’s true independence. The smart hardware of Xiaomi is the channel for its customers. The output of each economic unit is positive, the business is profitable, and the cost of acquiring users is negative. ” All-star fund investment partner Ji Weidong said.

Yue Bin, a partner of Gaochun Capital, recalls that in the past, mobile phone companies only used mobile phone hardware, and other software was handed over to the partners. At the time of Xiaomi’s establishment, the mobile phone industry developed tremendously, and the combination of software and hardware became a new trend. Service making money has become a new way of profit for mobile phone manufacturers.

As a veteran of the Internet and a newcomer to the mobile phone industry, Lei Jun said that he would transform the mobile phone industry with Internet thinking. "The wool out of the pig body" is also borrowed by Lei Jun. Unlike traditional mobile phone manufacturers such as Huawei, OPPO, and vivo, which use brand pricing, Xiaomi Mobile advocates high cost performance as an entry point. Broad user and subsequent value-added service revenue.

But secondary market investors do not seem to buy it, they also recognize the figures in the report. In the past three years, the revenue of Xiaomi's mobile phone business was 53.715 billion yuan, 48.764 billion yuan, and 80.563 billion yuan, accounting for 80.4%, 71.3% and 70.3% of the total revenue respectively. The income of Xiaomi Internet service in the past three years was 32.39 respectively. 100 million yuan, 6.537 billion yuan, 9.896 billion yuan, accounting for 4.86%, 9.57%, and 8.65% of total revenue. From a revenue perspective, Xiaomi has more revenue from smartphones.

However, Xu Dalai believes that it should be considered from the perspective of profit contribution. “The first day since the establishment of Xiaomi, it means that the hardware has zero gross profit, and the proportion of hardware in the income structure is high. However, if the profit is seen, the contribution of Internet service is high. At the same time, unlike Apple, nearly 70% of Xiaomi's sales come from online e-commerce channels. According to the prospectus, the gross profit contribution of Xiaomi Internet Services in the past three years was 43.75%, 48.95% and 34.75%.

In various places in Xiaomi Roadshow, Lei Jun and the company's management repeated Xiaomi's Internet story. Even if Li Ka-shing, Ma Yun, and Ma Huateng platform are willing to subscribe Xiaomi shares in their own names, investors' subscription is not positive because the capital market has entered a downturn.

“If Xiaomi chooses to list on the bull market last year, it will be a valuation of 100 billion US dollars to 150 billion US dollars.” Bian Weiwei said, “No one can predict the general trend of the listing, but now, the important thing is that you have to Recognize that today's market is a weak market.


For Xiaomi, who is just 8 years old, listing is only the first step in the long march. Whether one or more millet can be built in the future is the most important.

“The mobile phone is the lifeline of Xiaomi. If this business is paralyzed, it will be overwhelmed. ” Lei Jun said. In addition to being the founder of Xiaomi, when Xiaomi was in crisis in 2016, Lei Jun also personally launched and served as the head of Xiaomi's mobile phone department.

At present, the mobile phone industry has entered the stock market. According to IDC statistics, global smartphone shipments in 217 were 1.46 billion units, down 0.5% year-on-year. Smartphone shipments in the Chinese market fell by nearly 5%, and user replacement time was extended to 14 to 16 months.

As the smartphone market moves from the Blue Ocean to the Red Sea, the smartphone market is increasingly focused on the head. In an interview with China Entrepreneur, Lei Jun said that the Chinese market is basically mature. Apple, Huawei, Xiaomi, OPPO and vivo account for nearly 70% of the entire market. The market share of the top five in the future is likely to increase further. 90% or so.

At present, Xiaomi smart phone mainly includes Xiaomi MIX series, Xiaomi series and red rice series. Among them, Xiaomi MIX series is a high-end flagship model, Xiaomi series is positioned as a flagship machine and a high-end model, and the red rice series is positioned as a mid-range and entry-level model. .


Source: Xiaomi Prospectus

From the prospectus, the current mid-range and entry-level machines contributed most of the revenue to Xiaomi's mobile phone revenue. In 2017 and the first quarter of 2018, the sales of this part accounted for 80.6% and 77.6% of Xiaomi's mobile phone sales respectively. . The average unit price of Xiaomi smartphones in the past three years was 807.19 yuan, 879.92 yuan, and 881.34 yuan respectively.

Dixintong President Jin Xin said that the current Xiaomi mobile phone sales are mainly concentrated in the young people, high-end consumers are still mainly concentrated in Huawei, Samsung, Apple and other brands.

It can be seen that if the future reaches the stage of the bayonet, Xiaomi will compete with the other four major mobile phone brands at the price of 2,000 yuan to 3,000 yuan and 3,000 yuan. There is still a lot of work to be done on the brand positioning.

In fact, Lei Jun had rethought in public, and it was necessary to distinguish the red rice brand and the Xiaomi brand in a clearer position. The red rice mobile phone should be positioned as a national machine, which is good and cheap. The positioning of the Xiaomi brand is high-tech and fever. However, from the current mobile phone sales contribution, the results have not yet appeared.

A mobile phone industry practitioner believes that if Xiaomi is to be a high-end brand, it is in conflict with its core business logic. "Millet used to be offline, it may be a broken finger, but now it is necessary to cut off his life roots to be a high-end brand, this is not an easy task. ”

However, according to Gizmochina.com, Xiaomi will give up the “Millet” brand to produce mobile phones, and instead use the new name “Pocophone”, which is similar to the implementation of OPPO, vivo mobile phone brands in BBK, and the use of new sub-brands in consumers. Establish a new brand image in your heart. The news has not been confirmed by Xiaomi official.

In addition, in the past two years, Xiaomi's performance in overseas markets has been eye-catching. Xiaomi's first quarter earnings report in 2018 shows that Xiaomi has settled in 74 countries and regions, and has become the first market share in India, and is also stepping up the layout of the European market. . Xiaomi's overseas income has accounted for 36% of total revenue. Lei Jun once said that the ratio of overseas market to domestic market in the future will probably remain at 50%: 50%, and it is still a stage of large-scale expansion.

In addition, the above mobile phone practitioners predict that the future growth of mobile phones will also come from vertical market segments, such as women's mobile phones, game phones, and luxury mobile phones.

In fact, Lei Jun has realized this market and tried to increase the proportion of female fans by appearance and function adjustment. It is reported that the proportion of women in Xiaomi's mobile phones in the past is only 25%, while the proportion of other female counterparts in the same industry can reach 55%.

From the product point of view, the Note3 and Xiaomi 5X launched by Xiaomi last year highlighted the function of the beauty camera that comes with it, and invited Wu Yifan as the advertising spokesperson. The ambition to attract female users is self-evident. This may allow Xiaomi to compete with OPPO and vivo, which have always emphasized the camera function.

Roasted Sweet Potato Logic

In September 2013, Tong Shihao, who was also a partner at Qiming Venture Capital, was called to gather by Lei Jun. Among them were Xu Dalai, Chen Xing Capital Partner Liu Qin, Ji Yuan Capital Partner Fu Jixun and Li Hongwei. Lei Jun said quite mysteriously that he had an idea to discuss with them. Before Xiaomi invested in Wanmo headphones and purple rice, he hoped to establish a Xiaomi ecological chain, which was mainly responsible for Liu De.

Xu Dalai recalled that Xiaomi.com has been established for two years, but mobile phone purchase is still a low-frequency behavior. Lei Jun is thinking about how to make the purchase behavior of Xiaomi.com from low frequency to high frequency, and then have the idea of ​​building Xiaomi ecological chain. .

For the Xiaomi ecological chain, Liu De, the person in charge of the Xiaomi ecological chain, has a classic metaphor. The Xiaomi ecological chain business is like roasting sweet potato. When the stove has excess heat, throw a few sweet potatoes and cook it.

Companies in the Xiaomi ecological chain can quickly grow up with Xiaomi's brand dividends, user dividends, channel dividends and overseas dividends. Xiaomi expands the Xiaomi ecological chain through a small number of equity investments, and the two sides form a combined force.

According to the prospectus, Xiaomi has invested in more than 210 eco-chain companies, of which more than 90 are ecosystem companies that focus on hardware and consumer goods. At present, Xiaomi bracelet, balance car and mobile power have achieved world number one sales.

Segway-Ninebot is the world's largest electric balance car company and also the Xiaomi Eco Chain Company. Segway-Ninebot CEO Gao Lufeng said that last year Segway-Ninebot was the company with the highest sales of Xiaomi Home.

“The data behind this is that most of the users who purchase the balance car from the store may also buy other millet eco-chain products, which may generate an energy pull between each other to form an ecology. & rdquo; Gao Lufeng said. According to the introduction, about 50% of the company's revenue is currently derived from the sales of the Xiaomi channel.


Someone who knows Lei Jun evaluates it as a master of commercial design, discovers the commercial flaws of traditional industries, and improves the efficiency of the industry in new ways. Photography: Shi Xiaobing

At first, the Xiaomi ecological chain mainly revolves around the periphery of mobile phones. Since then, the border has gradually expanded to smart hardware, and then expanded into the field of consumer goods, and the borders are getting bigger and bigger. According to the prospectus, Xiaomi IoT has more than 85 million connected devices and more than 400 access devices, making it the world's largest intelligent hardware IoT platform.

With the advent of the 5G network era, the value of the Xiaomi IoT layout is also becoming more prominent.

Li Nan, senior vice president of Meizu, said that in the future, 5G will deploy three networks, including the Internet of Things. Its annual sales may be ten times that of mobile phones, which is about 5 billion a year. “This is terrible. & rdquo; Li Nan said.

In the view of Gu Jian, the founder of the joint venture, the key to achieving interoperability in the Internet of Things is to follow a common agreement between equipment and equipment, which is determined by the ecological scope of the layout. In the long run, whoever has more independent equipment will have the right to decide on the equipment entrance.

Due to the huge market space of the Internet of Things in the future, not only mobile phone manufacturers, but also Internet giants will join this battle. In March of this year, at the Alibaba Cloud Amphibious Conference, Alibaba Cloud President Hu Xiaoming announced that Alibaba will fully enter the Internet of Things field, which is the fifth strategy after e-commerce, finance, logistics and cloud. Some market participants predict that if Internet companies and traditional hardware join forces in the future, they will pose a threat to Xiaomi.

According to the above-mentioned insiders, the future IoT will be a pyramid structure, from cloud to data, hardware, supply chain, channel, brand, and compared to Internet companies and hardware companies, Xiaomi has the brand, hardware experience and channel advantages.

At present, Xiaomi.com, Youpin Mall and Xiaomi Home have formed a complete online and offline sales channel.

In 2015, Xiaomi, who had been playing the e-commerce channel before, encountered bottlenecks in growth. According to the data provided by GFK, from 2015 to 2016, the online sales share of smartphones was between 20% and 25%, and more sales still came from offline. At that time, it was also the time for OPPO and vivo to go beyond Xiaomi. Xiaomi, who suddenly fell to the bottom of the valley, began to explore the new offline retail model, which gave birth to the offline retail store Xiaomi Home.

It is understood that from the opening of the first millet home in 2015 to the present, there are 331 retail stores in Xiaomi. According to the plan, the millet home plans to open 1,000 stores in the next two years.

In stark contrast to Xiaomi’s crazy offline retail store, the former Xiaomi’s competitors OPPO and vivo are shrinking under the store.

The most critical factor is the difference in the efficiency and expense ratio of the two retail forms. According to public data, the current average cost of Xiaomi Home is 8%, which is half of the cost of general offline mobile phone retail stores. The floor efficiency is 270,000 yuan. Xiaomi claims that this data is second only to Apple retail stores.

The above-mentioned insiders explained that the secret of the low cost of Xiaomi Home is the low retail cost brought by low-cost high-frequency and high-traffic. Most of Xiaomi's homes are located in shopping malls. In the shopping malls, Xiaomi's products are cheaper, and they are stores that can carry traffic. Therefore, the rents obtained are lower, so as to achieve profitability. & ldquo; After all, it is still the Internet traffic model. ” The person said.

The high threshold for this model is that if Meizu, OPPO, Huawei and other competitors want to replicate similar models, they also need to build an ecological chain through self-operated or investment models, which may take 4-5 years. At the same time, 30% of the Xiaomi financing will be used to continue to expand the Xiaomi ecological chain, or will continue to widen the gap with competitors.

At this stage, the first wave of Xiaomi Ecological Chain Company has gradually matured. Huami and Kairun shares have been listed. Next, there may be more millet eco-chain companies going to the capital market, which will also increase the investment income of Xiaomi. section.

Big move

For Internet services that have been ignored by the outside world, Xiaomi executives seem to be preparing for a big move.

The latest news is that the long-lost rice chat has been updated and started beta testing, but Xiaomi has not responded to the re-launch of the rice chat, which has aroused the curiosity of the outside world. As a master of the situation, Lei Jun restarted the chat at this time, or saw a new opportunity.

In 2010, Xiaomi's internal team developed the communication tool Mi Chat, which was regarded as the Chinese version of KIK. The daily active users reached 4 million, but after one month, Tencent launched WeChat, and directly opened QQ and WeChat users, and quickly became mobile. The Internet's must-have social platform, the rice chat stopped because of the unexpected.

The restart is related to the activeness of traditional social platforms and the slowdown in user growth. Since the first quarter of 2017, Tencent QQ's monthly active users have experienced continuous decline. Tencent's 2017 financial report shows that the monthly active account number of QQ is 783 million, down 9.8% from the same period of last year. With the rise of 00, the WeChat social platform that has been in operation for seven years is no longer enough to meet the needs of individualization and community. This time, restarting the chat or intending to attract a new batch of traffic users and increase the number of active users in Xiaomi. .

From the prospectus disclosure, in March 2018, the company had more than 10 million active applications for 38 months and more than 50 million active users for 18 months, including Xiaomi App Store, Xiaomi Browser, Xiaomi Music and Xiaomi. Video, etc. According to iResearch statistics, compared with competitors of other mobile phone manufacturers, in addition to the Xiaomi App Store, other applications are not active daily. From the product matrix, Xiaomi still needs more applications with more active users in this area.

According to insiders of Xiaomi, Xiaomi set up MIUI Innovation Business Department internally at the beginning of this year, which will develop more open Internet products instead of the MIUI system based on Xiaomi's mobile phone. This major adjustment may hint at Xiaomi’s new strategic direction.

Internet analyst Zhou said that the pace of business model iteration will accelerate in the next five years. One possibility is that companies such as Xiaomi have a high probability of cutting into short video and new social application innovations, from the past product operations to user operations.

It is worth mentioning that the former rice chat, Xiaomi VR leader Huang Jiangji left before the listing, and the future Lei Jun will arrange who is responsible for the new rice chat is worth looking forward to.

When the flagship store in Xiaomi's home opened in Shenzhen last year, Lei Jun said that the probability of Xiaomi's sales reaching 1 trillion in 10 years is 50%.

“Millet should lead a group of Chinese brands and China's advanced manufacturing industry, and has established an unshakable position in the world, ranking the top three in all segments. ” Lei Jun once said in an interview with "Chinese Entrepreneur".

If Lei’s wish is fulfilled, Xiaomi’s market value may not be far from $200 billion.

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