After a positive outlook on Apple's earnings report last week, Loup Ventures conducted an in-depth look at Apple Pay's situation today. According to Loup Ventures, only 20% of smartphone users worldwide use their mobile phones as wallets, but the company expects this number to rise to 80% in the future.
Gene Munster, an analyst at Loup Ventures, estimates that Apple Pay currently has more than 252 million users, accounting for 31% of the total active iPhone users. Although Apple itself did not disclose the number of Apple Pay users, Cook said in a company earnings conference call last week that in the third quarter of 2018, Apple Pay transactions exceeded $1 billion. Munster expects the transaction volume to increase by 200% next year.
In addition, Munster estimates that Apple Pay has more users outside the US than in the US, with 85% of users being international users and only 15% in the US. Internationalization has become a key driver for Apple Pay's growth, and the market for Apple Pay will reach 25 later this year.
However, the analyst believes that Apple Pay is still too small to change Apple's overall service business, accounting for only 1% - 2% of service revenue. However, in terms of turning the iPhone into a digital wallet, Apple has several advantages over other competing platforms:
Apple's advantage in making the iPhone a high-end digital wallet is its ability to integrate payments into mobile and desktop operating systems, leverage its brand to win support from retailers and banks, and convince users that transactions are secure and private. In addition, Apple Pay is the only digital wallet that supports the top five payment methods, namely mobile payments, desktop payments, in-app payments, p2p payments, and point-of-sale payments.
Apple has been increasing its marketing efforts for Apple Pay recently, including Apple Pay Cash's P2P payments. However, Munster pointed out that this trend may only last for a few months.