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Lu Qi: In the era of artificial intelligence, chips and underlying software have to be basically redone

via:博客园     time:2019/6/10 20:06:33     readed:230

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Big Data Abstracts

Author: Lu Qi

Editor: Zhou Suyun

On May 18, 2019, at the YC China Entrepreneurship Meeting held in YC China, Lu Qi, founder and CEO of YC China and president of YC Global Research Institute.

Lu Qi was President and Chief Operating Officer of Baidu Group, Executive Vice President of Microsoft Global, CEO of Yahoo, and received a PhD in Computer Science from Carnegie Mellon University. YC is the founder and CEO of YC China. YC is a business accelerator born in Silicon Valley. YC has invested nearly 2000 companies (including Airbnb, Dropbox) and trained more than 4000 founders.

Based on his own experience and thinking, Lu Qi analyzed why entrepreneurship will become the most promising career, and talked about the entrepreneurship environment in China. In a sense, Chinese entrepreneurs are facing the golden age of entrepreneurship in a country with four core driving factors of high-tech: technology, talent, capital and market.

With the development of AI, how can we seize the opportunity of history? Lu Qi's experience and lessons from the era of personal computer, Internet and cloud put forward the prediction of AI era.

The following is the full text of Lu Qi's speech. Big Data Digest has been deleted and edited without changing its original intention.

Why does entrepreneurship become the most promising career

Why is entrepreneurship a new outlet? How to let every entrepreneur, the whole China's entrepreneurship and innovation ecology better grasp the historical opportunities before us?

According to my experience and thinking, the general idea has two levels:Find the core driving force and do a good job of structural system analysis.

The process of the world, entrepreneurship or innovation, it must have some core driving forces, if we find the core driving forces are very durable, then according to these core driving forces, we can better see which direction of the layout.

Any driving force needs a system to generate energy. We need to analyze the system more clearly to help each of us better control the opportunities we face.

Looking back at the different stages of human history, from the agricultural period to the industrial society, human beings have experienced a change in the way of profit from planting and commerce. Then to the stage of capital-based, large-scale value creation is realized through capital operation. Now, entrepreneurship has become the 21st century entrepreneurship can create the most business value, from the perspective of wealth returns, is also the most promising career.

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Two Core Drivers

What is its core driving force? What forces contribute to such a structured process?

The structure of the system enables us to really understand how to treat entrepreneurship as a new profession and to pursue it systematically. There are two main driving forces:

1. Invention knowledge and technology

This is one of the most permanent driving forces in human history. Human nature is the permanent pursuit of truth knowledge, continuous understanding of the world, transformation of the world. Mankind never endlessly explores science, invents technology, and the core systematic structure is called

When human economic behavior has been recorded in the past thousands of years, little has changed, only in the past 300 years has a large-scale change, and the rate of change is declining, the core driving force is the so-called

2. Pursuing Wealth

We use the wealth system to create more wealth. Popularly speaking, human beings are always pursuing wealth, but we should make a broader definition of wealth.

Wealth is defined broadly as a universal ability to satisfy human needs and desires. Money is wealth, health is wealth, happy family is wealth. The core of wealth is a universal point, which can bring desire to satisfy needs.

Knowledge-based Wealth Creation System

Human history is also a process of constant pursuit of new and more wealth, which is the driving force. There are only three wealth creation systems in human history, and the core structure of them is in this picture.data-ratio=0.48625792811839325

Knowledge-based wealth creation system has only lasted for more than 60 years, which is basically the beginning of the information society, but its scale and speed of creating commercial value and wealth are far beyond its existence time. Market is a platform and environment that focuses on knowledge, technology and pursuit of wealth. In a sense, market is one of the largest and most effective platforms invented by human beings. In fact, it has played several important roles.

Action 1:At least let each of us participate in the market. Every one of us participates in the market for our own sake, but what we do is beneficial to others, so it is a magical platform.

Action 2:There are many things that can be done in the world, including many innovations, but the market is an accelerator and an optimizer. It will evaluate which innovations are most valuable and which innovations are most viable.

Summing up the above, it can be deduced logically that starting from the 21st century, entrepreneurs will be one of the most value-creating and value-gaining careers for the new generation of career choices.

Several Technical Conditions Necessary for Starting a Business

But entrepreneurship is very difficult, very difficult. How can we systematically establish a system so that entrepreneurship, like other professions, systematically lowers the threshold of entrepreneurship and innovation?

The entrepreneurship of any market innovation is always the focus of the three sources of technology, products and markets. Only by focusing on these three sources can we truly become an effective entrepreneur and create commercial and social values.

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First of all, we will talk about technology. There are several levels of technology.

1. Science

The starting point is physics, electronics, mathematics, material physics, semiconductors, computer science. As an entrepreneur, even if you are not a technology major, pay attention to the direction of technology development. Although science often goes a long way, it is also a long way from starting a business. But the next layer of science is particularly important, that is,

I remember when I first entered college, software engineering was still very immature, and how to systematically develop software was still an unknown human behavior. Therefore, from science to engineering is not enough, but also need the ability to operate, such as software, even if there is software engineering, how to update software, deploy software, operating software, these capabilities also need to be built, only in this way can entrepreneurs better use technology.

2. Products

Product development is also constantly providing new tools, new methods, especially digital tools, so that we can quickly understand social needs, design user experience, iteration, trial and error.

Cloud computing is an important case in history. In the absence of cloud services, Internet companies or software companies need at least 6-7 months to develop a very simple product. With the cloud, a small team of two or three people can build the initial product in a month or two.

In terms of products, we are constantly providing new and systematic services, as well as in the market. More tools can enable entrepreneurs to systematically attract customers and explore business models. At the same time, in the operation structure of capital, the whole industry is also developing forward, especially the venture capital industry, each stage has been more structured. If you pay attention to it, you will find that the venture capital industry is growing at a high speed every year.

Education and Development of Talents

Especially for all aspects of technology. Although it is technology-driven innovation, an entrepreneur actually needs many abilities. He often needs a joint venture team. It doesn't matter if you want to start a business, even if you don't have a technical background. As long as you pay attention to the direction of technology development and find good partners, you can find good business opportunities together.

1. Structural challenges of entrepreneurship

However, even with the various improvements just mentioned, entrepreneurship can become a career choice more easily, but it still has big structural challenges. This is probably the hardest (from 0 to 1) to find Product Market Fit, which is structured and will become more and more difficult in the future.

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Although technology and tools are developing rapidly, people's education level is constantly improving, and products are developing faster and faster, everyone can come up with 10 ideas, and can be realized through technology immediately. But each person only has 24 hours a day, the ability to achieve is limited, will soon get stuck in the bottleneck, and there are many random factors.

At this point, the only thing that can be done is to quickly connect new ideas, new inventions, new technologies and user reactions, fast iteration, fast trial and error.

YC has the most research and practical experience on this issue. We often say in YC's internal meetings: We are the one that sees the most death of entrepreneurship, which is the most likely place to die, and in this stage of entrepreneurship, there are two things to do:

2. Survive

You can't make money until you find Product Market Fit. The longer you live, the more ideas you can try. Although this is a very different game, once you find it, I think the probability of you rushing up may be higher and the effect will be better. This is a structural challenge.

3. Crossing the Gap

Crossing the gap is also a structural one, which is related to the distribution and psychology of people in society. This is the process that any technology-driven innovation must go through.

For a new technology, the whole social media is enthusiastic at first, even exaggerating excessively. When they reach the top, they begin to be disappointed. So everyone chooses to give up, fall to the bottom, and the technology that survives will gradually warm up. This is the so-called Gartner Hype Cycle.

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There will always be some people in society who will do everything new, good or bad. This is the first group of people, as long as it is new, I will do it. There's another group called Visual. He sees far away, and he'll try.

So, early products and technologies will generally be tried by some people, but there is a gap: I am willing to try because someone has used them around me. Because any product, its next wave of adopters, is pragmatic, he tried this product on the premise that Lao Wang tried it, my colleagues tried it, or friends I know used it, otherwise, I don't need it. Thus, the gap is created.

Most of the products in history have died here, because they can't jump, which is a very difficult problem, that is,

Increasingly steeper S-curve

Our society as a whole is adopting new technology-driven innovation faster and faster. Just now we talked about Product Market Fit. If you jump over it, you will start a so-called S curve, which is slow in the early stage, but it will jump over quickly after you find it.

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Nowadays, there are more and more, S curve (S curves, and the speed is getting faster and faster. I think China's self-media will say

The golden age of Chinese entrepreneurs

I think China has some special opportunities. So far, the global (including new industries) is basically driven by the United States, because the United States is the only country that has all the core drivers of high-tech: technology, talent, capital and market.

So, in the United States, we often say this when we meet.

But China has completely changed the whole situation. Strictly speaking, it has changed since the mobile Internet. Nowadays, China has enough talents, strong technology, a very large market and full capital. All four core China have.

China has some special environment, including infrastructure and policy support. In a sense, this is a golden age for every Chinese entrepreneur who wants to start a business.

This is why YC chose to enter China at this time point.

YC was founded in 2005. It is the earliest and most successful enterprise in the early stage of entrepreneurship ecology in the world. We have invested nearly 2,000 entrepreneurship companies in the past ten years, with a total market value of more than 150 billion US dollars. There are many very first-class star enterprises, such as Dropbox, Airbnb, Cruise and so on. In particular, YC has initiated a university-style accelerated entrepreneurship model. It demonstrates a set of very effective ways of starting a business from 0 to 1 with practical actions.

In the past few months, I have had the opportunity to participate in a venture business in the United States as a partner of the United States. I have gained a lot of personal experience. I am really confident that YC's methodology and various aspects will bring value to the venture company.

I hope that Chinese entrepreneurs can also experience and learn this set of entrepreneurship theory, but the environment in China is different from that in the United States. So we have localized YC in China. Now we are enrolling students. People with entrepreneurial ideas can go to YC's official website for details.

Link: http://www.ycchina.com/

How to seize the historic opportunity?

How can we seize our historic opportunities? Looking back at history first, we can see which are the core driving forces and which are the systematic structures, which can let us see the future and better identify the direction, so as to grasp our opportunities more systematically.

History of High-tech Industry: Driven by the Law of Computer Platform Development

The history of high-tech industry can be described by the structure of large-scale computing and digitization. Every 12 years or so, there will be a new large-scale platform in history. What are the core drivers of these platforms? It is the scale and scope of digitalization, that is, how far and in what depth can you digitalize some human actions.

Because once the information is digitized, it can be quickly acquired and transmitted, and digitized information can also be refined and supported by calculation. With the support, it can do fast iteration to accelerate the speed of innovation. Keep in mind that for any track, there is no doubt that what we need to see is how wide the digitization scope is and how deep the digitization depth is.

Now it's digitized all over the world, the whole planet.

In the era of artificial intelligence, there will be greater opportunities, because the social world and the physical world will be fully integrated, any physical space, anyone's behavior, as long as it has a higher value for us, will be digitized, will have the opportunity to enhance the value on a large scale.

Every era, valuable experience and lessons for us

1. PC/Client-Server Era

In the era of PC client, the core technology of front-end is X86 chip and Graphical Display. From Microsoft's point of view, this is a point Mr. Gates sees far. When he saw the X86 microprocessor, he knew that it would be used everywhere. The software would be a big track, and Microsoft would always believe in it.

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The second generation is Graphical Display, which he watched with Jobs. He wrote a lot of valuable memos in the late 1970s. The next 20 or 30 years of application experience were basically observed.

But in a sense, they didn't invent it. The Xerox PARC (Xerox Parker Research Center), which really invented it, is a laboratory. From an entrepreneur's point of view, it's worth learning from the direction of control technology, Graphical Display, or microprocessor, to imagine the business value that can be generated in the future and stick to it for a long time. This is the core of a company like Microsoft.

In addition, in the back end, relational databases and distributed systems are very important technologies in the history of the computer industry. I call them definitive capabilities. Today, even if you are an Internet user, I'm almost sure that you have a small MySQL Database Management System (DBMS) with relational data.

Distributed data systems, including today's block chain core computing and consensus algorithms, were born in that era. What kind of business value track you see after these capabilities is basically the business route of enterprises. At that time, Oracle (Oracle Software Systems Co., Ltd.) was born, and SAP (SIEP) was born. Good company.

For today's China, these tracks may be valuable, but they need to be linked to the cloud. This is the first era, we can draw some more important experience.

2. Internet Age

Simply put, its main revolution and driving force is browser and search, including advertising. There are many experiences and lessons to be learned here, but one important point I want to share with you is the importance of business models.

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Mosaic was the first Internet maker. Later Netscape felt that it had found its own business model and that it could overthrow Microsoft. But there was a big challenge: Http was an open standard system for Internet maker, that is, no patent protection. Anyone could do it.

But even if we find the portal, it is useless. At first, we thought that the portal might be the control point of the Internet, but then it was obvious that the search engine was. Because of the size and structure of the Internet, there must be such a mechanism as search engine to organize it.

So Google found it, but it didn't find a business model. In the early days, Google struggled very, very hard, trying all kinds of things. However, Google's business model was discovered by another company, Overture, which invented a way to rank by bidding, driven by technology.

Therefore, we need to pay attention to:After seeing the track, there are many opportunities, among which the business model is very important.However, if you don't find a business model in AI today, don't worry, don't worry, as long as you don't die, you will find it in the future. Because as long as value is produced, value can be obtained.

An entrepreneurial team is going to be right

3. Mobile/Cloud Age

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Definitive experiences, such as the iPhone, are Jobs'most epoch-making inventions. He sees the age of touch and touch screens, where he is keenly aware. But what we need to see is that the core technology of these deliveries brings us other enlightenments and new tracks, or extended tracks.

First, it has a camera. Don't underestimate the video, especially the microview we see today. I observed that it will be a very big track in the future. Because of the words and images, the information it can convey is not at the same level as a video. So look at the interaction and see the new track in the future.

Second, voice is relatively opportune, because it will take some time for voice to be completely digitized. Although we use voice for telephone calls, they are all analog signals, not digitized.

Third, positioning can also be done, because mobile phone positioning and the birth of projects, such as droplets and Uber.

In addition, the focus is on the main applications, such as text messages, communications, photos, social networking, especially personalized recommendations such as payment. China's mobile Internet has come to the front of the United States, which is closely related to the overall structure of China's Internet.

Just to mention ecology, Jobs didn't want to be an app when he designed the iPhone. He just wanted to make a good browser, but because of various computational reasons, he finally gave up and did it.

The first iPhone had only one app, and there was no app model at that time. Although the model of APP is good for large and frequent application, it will cause ecological unhealthy in a sense.

It's very difficult for you to push an APP at some stage. Because it's unreasonable for users who use it occasionally for experience to download an App. On the one hand, because you need to use resources, on the other hand, it creates a barrier to promote new services in the new entrepreneurship ecosystem.

So, I personally think that a new service-based production like small programs can bring more opportunities for entrepreneurs. Only by giving everyone the opportunity to innovate, will opportunities become more and more.

Back-end is mobile communication 4G, the main defining capability is cloud computing and services, which completely changes the entire software industry from business model to experience delivery, and greatly improves the scope and depth of digital penetration. The track here is very active. Digitalization is gradually penetrating, assuming that digitization can not penetrate into many things of an enterprise, but with cloud services, with mobile phones, it can penetrate more and more downward.

Here, if you want to start a business, you need to consider: What kind of behavior did you digitize in the track at that time? What kind of innovation efficiency and value can you improve after digitization?

4. The Age of Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence has a lot to say. It's very, very early prediction of the future.

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First, the front end of AI, i.e. input and output. If you input, listen and see, of course, touch already exists; if you output, it can be a dialogue, it can be a self-help system, it can be an automatic output system, it can be a robot, it can be an automatic driving vehicle, and so on.

Secondly, core technology, sensors will remain at the forefront of a lot of investment, especially in microphones, cameras, lidars, optical sensors, a variety of sensors, low power consumption, privacy protection scenarios. Seats, sensors that help protect privacy, are a very important weight.

Chips almost have to be redone. In a nutshell, both the traditional X86 and, ARM (microprocessors are the so-called Von Neumann architecture (Feng.

The instruction set may also use X86 or ARM, because it still needs to be mobilized by the CPU, but the main calculation will be calculated by other structures, so the whole structure will be changed. Personally, I think we haven't found a definitive experience, at least not yet, but we have the ability to define, which is brought about by in-depth learning.

Simply put, in-depth learning used to be called neuron processing. It had been a fire for a while in the 1980s. The starting point of the real revolution was in 2006. Geoffrey Hinton (the father of neural networks) cooperated with Microsoft. By 2009, the word and sentence difference rates of speech recognition had declined from 27% to 28%, falling to the level close to or even exceeding human beings.

Next comes the very difficult natural language processing, which is closely related to general AI. Personally, I think it will take many years for it to catch up with the human level. Anything that builds a model becomes very efficient, because the core of it is to acquire knowledge quickly.

If your business is knowledge-driven, this time it will be accelerated on a large scale, because this time not only people to acquire knowledge, but also we can effectively acquire knowledge by building artificial intelligence machines, which is a cross-era thing.

Back-end 5G technology is very complex, but it brings a wide range of business opportunities.

Chips are the same. I think the era of chips such as Intel and Qualcomm is gone forever. Chips will be in a very large vertical field in the future and now.

The underlying software basically needs to be redoneAt present, there are some good systems for frameworks and tools, but there are some large-scale in-depth learning training and reasoning systems, including data systems, engineering and so on, and a lot of work needs to be done. At present, AI has not been truly engineered, just like the previous software engineering, it has not been completely systematic to train the model to achieve the desired results, including some data processing.

Killer applications, such as perception and cognition. I think perception is definitely ahead, especially vision. From the perspective of what I can observe, especially YC investment, there is no doubt that computer vision will be done by many enterprises.

The Core Model of AI Value Creation

If you are doing AI entrepreneurship, or AI innovation, and want to use AI technology to create business value and wealth, this picture is its core model, you can use this picture to extend the methods that can be practiced in the future.

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Among them, the core is data, data is not out of nothing, any data is a digital expression of observing natural phenomena, physical environment and human phenomena, is the carrier of knowledge, its connotation is knowledge.

First of all, to get data, there must be sensors.

Secondly, we need to acquire knowledge from data, and then use knowledge to achieve our goal.Generally, through software and hardware algorithms, to achieve our goal of creating social value, produce new data. Be sure to build such a closed loop, provided that you find a more complete application.

Here, I would like to emphasize the closed loop. Because knowledge is living, human society is changing, physical environment is changing, so disposable data is useless. Closed-loop, living data must be added in order to truly build a healthy AI business and ecosystem.

Looking ahead to the frontier of technology-driven innovation in the future

In the era of artificial intelligence, the front-end is likely to be intelligent objects, assistants, self-help systems, autonomous driving robots, intelligent places; the back-end is likely to be industry clouds, urban brains and so on. There are also some new terminals to consider, such as AR, VR and brain-computer combination. At one time, people thought that glasses might be the next opportunity, which is possible, and may soon be applied.

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In addition, it is related to the future of the background, especially such as block chains or quantum computing. Actually,The ultimate core competence of any technological innovation is based on physics and mathematics.

Quantum physics is the only field in physics that has not yet been commercialized. Like electronics and mathematics, it will produce the whole quantum ecology, including quantum chemistry, quantum materials and so on. Of course, because quantum computing is applied to the whole field, it may be a little farther in the last time, maybe 7 or 10 years, but it must be a very large space.

Among them, we are concerned with computational biology, even biology itself. Biology is renewable, and we now have engineering capabilities to build new biological systems, such as computing, new ways of energy generation and storage. A company like Tesla is an energy company. Cars are the first application. The second application is aircraft. It uses mature energy technology to change the world. At present, energy technology has many development opportunities.

Back to the starting point of entrepreneurship, it is also a more systematic and structured in-depth, any era, will be the birth of the so-called first echelon company, which stands at the top of the ecological control, will be very different.

All places in the future will be smart, and in 40 or 50 years, at least four or five first-tier companies will be born. The entrepreneurs of these first tier companies are likely to be in universities, high schools, or some of the students present. This is our chance.

Personally, I don't think we've ever seen so many first-tier companies in history that change the world and create value on such a large scale. A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. How to define it, entrepreneurs must take the most difficult first step by themselves.

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