1. The definition of export controls is not very clear;
2. Huawei and suppliers are strongly motivated to restore mutual business relations;
3. The globalization of supply chain and the degree of technological autonomy;
4. The focus of the recent Sino-US conflict has shifted to other topics.
Report estimate,Huawei in 2019Mobile phoneThere are 2 scenarios for shipment, which are higher than the market consensus of 1.8–210 million:
1. If it is assumed that the US export control to Huawei remains unchanged, it is estimated that Huawei's mobile phone shipments in 2019 will be 2.1–220 million units;
2. If it is assumed that the US export control to Huawei remains unchanged and Huawei starts to ship mobile phones equipped with its own operating system, Ark OS, in October, it is estimated that Huawei's mobile phone shipments in 2019 will be 2.15–225 million units.
Guo Mingxi pointed out in the report thatHuawei may start shipping Hongmeng mobile phones in October. If our predictions come true and assume that the US export control to Huawei remains unchanged, it will benefit from the peak demand of 4Q19. Huawei's mobile phone shipments in 2019 may reach 2.15–225 million. unit.
He believes that it is expected that Hongmeng Mobile will not be able to meet the application ecological needs of high-end users in the non-Chinese market at the beginning, so it will focus on the low-end market. In terms of regional shipments, the initial shipments of Hongmeng Mobile are mainly concentrated in Central and Eastern Europe and emerging markets.
The report also said that Huawei's mobile phone shipments in 2019 may be better than market expectations. The recent downside risks of supply chain stocks are limited, and the stock prices of key suppliers of high-end models may rebound in the near future.