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A Brief History of Japan-Korea Science and Technology War: Who is the King of Chips, Semiconductors and Screens?

via:博客园     time:2019/7/3 19:00:34     readed:290

Focus on:

  1. Japan's rise has been taken care of by the United States, but with its strength increasing, Japan has broken out six scientific and technological wars with the United States successively.
  2. From 1980 to 1990 was the peak period of Japan's scientific and technological development. During this period, Japan tried to gain the core voice of the Internet. However, because Japan relied on the semiconductor industry and played with the Soviet Union frequently, Reagan finally took Super 301 Act as a weapon and launched targeted sniping.
  3. Based on Japan's experience of playing with fire, the United States began to support Korea's semiconductor industry, and in terms of tariffs and policy care, Korea has eaten many of Japan's high-tech industries and products.
  4. After 2000, the United States became the world's Internet center and again brilliant, while Japan can only do business outside the right of the United States to speak on the Internet, while South Korea relies on the rise of the United States to achieve self-development of the economic miracle.
  5. After Japan gave up to Korea's high-tech industry, it did not withdraw completely, but chose to go upstream in the rising light of Korea. Today's Korea's science and technology industry relies heavily on Japan, even Japan is the invisible oligarch in the mobile phone industry and the field of science and technology hardware.
  6. The science and technology war between Japan and South Korea is a small narrator of the opening of the new era, but the confrontation between Japan and South Korea in the science and technology industry chain is also the epitome of the next 5G era.

Wen: Five Moments Research on the Stone of the House

On July 1, 2019, the Japanese government officially announced that it would impose restrictions on South Korea's export of key technology materials from July 4. As a result, Japan and South Korea, the old enemies and new rivals with many contradictions, eventually entered a new stage of trade war.

The cause of the bet on the fate of two countries, South Korea and Japan, ostensibly: it is only Korean courts that impose compulsory compensation on Japanese companies.

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The deeper reason is that behind the rise of Japan and South Korea, there is a deep interest struggle in the chain of science and technology industry.

Churchill once said: there are no eternal friends, only eternal interests.

Behind the technological wars between Japan and South Korea, there are obviously not only old grievances, but also new enmities for the future national games under the 5G track. And the starting point of this scientific and technological war between Japan and South Korea is to review slowly the course of the rise of Japan and South Korea.

Japan's Resilient Rise

In 1945, after Japan's defeat, its economy entered a state of shock. In the face of the ruins, Japan lost its enterprises, but retained the talents to rebuild the enterprises because of the agreement of voluntary surrender.

In the face of Japan, which voluntarily surrendered and became the base of the United States garrison, and entered the United States and the Soviet Union after the war, the new confrontation

Under the protection of this special advantage, Japan's reconstruction in the first five years has received a lot of assistance from the United States, and in 1950, with a solid talent base, it has completely restored its normal healthy operation.

This honeymoon period with the United States lasted until 1987, when Japan launched a semiconductor war against the United States.

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Before that, during the honeymoon period, the United States first started in 1950. Because of the outbreak of the Korean War, Japan became the base for the production and maintenance of US military supplies. According to public data, the US government paid a huge amount of special purchases for Japan at that time, which accounted for 27% of Japan's export trade.

In addition to the special care of Japan's survival products, the United States has also helped Japan to join the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), with strong opposition from its own hard-to-iron allies, making it possible for Japan to move to one of its early years

In addition to America's aid, Japan itself is also more competitive, in 1956, the Japanese government formulated.

This plan directly opened the first trade war between Japan and the United States.

According to public information: from 1957 to 1972, Japanese textiles began to seize the United States market, is the first to enter the vision of American trade protectors of Japanese goods. In the face of Japan's strength in the low-end manufacturing industry, after 1957, the United States began to intensively adopt the policy of restricting the entry of Japanese textiles into the United States market, and this confrontation ended with Japan.

In 1958, based on its strong industrial background, the Japanese government began to guide enterprises to produce household appliances such as automobiles, televisions and steel, thus burying the second climax of Japan's economic development (Iwate boom) and the second and third trade wars with the United States.

Among them, the second trade war took place in 1968-1978, the main role of which was steel closely related to automobile manufacturing; the third trade war took place in 1970-1980, and by the third time, the Japanese goods feared by the United States had developed from basic materials to color TV products at the forefront of science and technology at that time.

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In fact, according to public information:At the time of Japan's rapid rise, in order to cultivate spare tire countries that restrict Japan's manufacturing industry, the United States began to vigorously support South Korea's development after 1960.

With the rapid development of Japan's semiconductor industry after 1985, this cultivation has become an important foreshadowing of Korea's rise and Japan's decline under the American eccentricity.

Japan's Destruction and the Turn of Korea's Destiny

From 1980 to 1990, it was an important turning point in the transportation of the United States, Japan and South Korea.

According to public data, the United States has been fighting for its own inflation in the early 1980s.

Among them, with the implementation of the dollar tightening policy, the dollar exchange rate began to soar, so funds from all over the world began to focus on investment in the United States. Exports and imports in the U.S. market declined and the trade deficit increased.

Although the United States controlled inflation through monetary tightening, as the trade deficit increased, the United States government also saved a huge deficit.

From 1980 to 1990, as a key decade of the transition from traditional manufacturing to the dawn of the Internet, the United States suddenly found that its dominant technology world had lost its core voice.As automobiles, electricity, rare materials and entertainment have developed to the forefront of radio, Japanese companies have been seen everywhere in the high-end areas of the United States.

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Before the Plaza Accord in 1985, Japanese automobiles accounted for 25% of the American market, while American automobiles accounted for only 1.5% of the Japanese market.

According to public data, from 1970 to 1985, wealthy Japan began to invest globally.

In 1985, Japan's foreign investment accounted for about 20% of global transnational investment, while the United States gradually shrank from 54% to about 15% due to its own economic problems.

The rise of Japan is directly reflected in the improvement of semiconductor production. In 1983, the semiconductor industry, which was heavily betted by the United States, was overtaken by Japan with lower production costs and technological advantages.

Therefore, in the years when the United States was in trouble because of economic problems, the strength of the Japanese economy broke out in the United States with the instability of the dollar.

In addition to economic problems, there are also some conflicts of interest in military factors and industrial layout in the outbreak of this anti-Japanese sentiment.

Because before 1985, Japanese semiconductor products had more cost advantages, the division of technology between the United States and Japan caused the national security problems of the United States.

According to a knowledgeable netizen:The strong dollar made many parts of defense products subcontracted to Japanese companies. The militarization of Japan's high-tech manufacturing industry eventually caused national security concerns in Washington.

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Toshiba disclosed in 1987

In addition to Japan's self-play with fire in military factors, the layout of the United States in the science and technology market has been blocked, and it is also the strongest launch of the United States against Japan.

1985 was an important turning point in the semiconductor industry in the United States, Japan and South Korea. At that time, under the development of semiconductor technology, the future of the PC market was gradually clear in the field of science and technology.

Therefore, in the face of Japan in addition to the DOS system in the United States, alone to open up the TRON operating system

From 1987 to 1991, the United States began to use Super 301 Act as a knock-on brick, cooperating with the gambling exchange rate manipulation means of dollar depreciation and yen appreciation, to carry out a devastating and precise attack on the germinating market of Japan's semiconductor industry and operating system.

On December 29, 1989, with Nikkei's average share price reaching its highest level of 38957.44, Japan completely withdrew from the debate over PC voice with the United States, and the semiconductor industry has since gone downhill.

The victory of the United States in the right to speak on PC has created the absolute dominant position of the United States in the information age and saved the best fertile soil for 30 years.

Korean

The rise of South Korea in the semiconductor market, except in Japan

According to public data, after Park Chung-hee launched a military coup in 1961, he carried out a five-year economic development plan and a new rural movement in accordance with South Korea's national conditions, and combined with the enterprise foundation of Samsung and other chaebol, in cooperation with the United States, made South Korea's agriculture and industry develop rapidly.

Among them, among the seven five-year plans formulated by the Korean government in 1962 and 1996, the first-fourth five-year plan is called

These concentrating efforts on major events enabled South Korea to seize the initial intention of the United States to support South Korea against Japan in the historical trend.

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In fact, after 1995, although Korea's semiconductor industry is large, its semiconductor work is limited to DRAM (memory) market, while the United States quickly controlled the absolute right of voice of PC processor X86 architecture by supporting Intel after the determination of Windows system as the world PC standard in 1989.

In 1992, Samsung became the leading company of memory chips with 64M DRAM chips. After the rise of the semiconductor industry, Samsung once faced anti-dumping lawsuits initiated by the United States.

In times of crisis, Samsung leader Lee Kin-hee used the United States against Japan in

Therefore,Americans only charge Samsung 0.74% of the anti-dumping duty, while Japan imposes a maximum of 100% of the anti-dumping duty.

The largest electronic consumer market in the world belongs to the United States. Japan and South Korea are heavily dependent on U.S. imports in 1990. The preference of the United States for South Korea makes South Korea's rise in the semiconductor industry fearless.

With the hindrance of the semiconductor industry in Japan, the display panels related to the semiconductor industry and many other products in the information age have been affected by the United States.

For example, after 1989, Tokki, the manufacturer of the evaporator used to produce OLED display panels, was once on the verge of bankruptcy. In this special period, Samsung of Korea gave Tokki Company a life-saving order for plating machine.

Based on this paragraph

Tokki was acquired by Canon Tokki, a Japanese company, after it got out of trouble.

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After 1995, with Japan and the United States

Among them, there is an interesting episode:

In July 1997, the Asian financial crisis swept through Korea.

South Korea's foreign debt is high, its enterprises are closing down and its unemployment rate is rising. At this time, South Korea received assistance from the U.S. -led International Monetary Fund. In the original works of the United States, which restrict various conditions, drastic reforms have been made in the four fields of enterprise, finance, public utilities and labor.

It is worth noting that in the latest data report, South Korea has the highest GPD-R&D investment ratio in the world, that is to say, no one in the world is willing to spend more money on technology than South Korea.

After the reform, every enterprise in the core area of the national economy has the image of American capital. With the aid of American capital, Korea emerged from the financial crisis only in 1999 and became the first country to recover from the financial crisis in East Asia.

And in the United States and South Korea with the help of Internet, chip and other modern technology industry rapid development, also became.

However, unlike what we think, Japan is not a defeat of surrender, but a humiliating and burdensome layout of its own technology. After all, no matter what South Korea has to Japan,

Japan's Invisible Layout

After 2000, South Korea's economy took off rapidly, and it was implemented in 2003.

Through technological innovation and industrial upgrading, Korea has made a leap from developing countries to developed countries in electronics, shipbuilding, automobile and steel industries.

According to OEC's public data, Korea's largest exports are integrated circuits ($10.4 billion), automobiles ($40.1 billion), refined petroleum ($32.5 billion), passenger and cargo ships ($24.4 billion) and auto parts ($19.9 billion).

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Japan's largest exports are automobiles ($10.1 billion), automotive parts ($3.49 billion), integrated circuits ($26.5 billion), machines with personal functions ($2.26 billion) and industrial printers ($1.36 billion).

Therefore, in the integrated circuit market, Korea, which has Samsung, LG and other international first-line consumer electronics brands, is not as good as Japan, which only has Sony, Sharp and Konka brands.

The main reason for the contrast lies in the differences in industrial chain layout between Korea and Japan. Japan, which pays more attention to the upstream industry, also conceals a lot of strength.

For example, although Samsung is the world's leading supplier of mobile devices, it has a near monopoly in the screen, memory and cache chips markets (70% of the global dynamic random access memory market and 50% of the NAND flash market).

But little is known: Japanese companies have the strongest voice in the three strongest areas of Korean consumer electronics market, which are based on sophisticated materials. Among them, polyimide is used to manufacture flexible organic light emitting diode displays, and the corrosion inhibitor is the coating material of memory chips. The Japanese companies that produce these basic materials are the sum of other foreign companies and even more.

According to the third-party report in 2018, the screenshot of TOP10, a Japanese company with a high degree of dependence in Korea, shows that:

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About 60% of the electronics, precision machines, machinery and other electronics and chemistry manufacturers in Korea rely heavily on Japanese technology and product exports.

At present, these technologies and products are the basic components of Korean industrial products such as mobile phones, ultra-thin televisions, automobiles and so on.

To put it simply, Japan makes Samsung phones and Samsung screens.

With the localized supply of these sophisticated basic materials, Japan has the most advanced robotic production technology in the world in the integrated circuit market.

Among them, in the field of industrial robots, five of the top ten robotics manufacturers in the world are Japanese enterprises: Fanaco, Ankawa, Najibuyue, Epson and Kawasaki.

If Japan's profit in machine production is lower than Samsung's, why not do the business that Korea is doing in Japan, which owns basic materials and first-hand production equipment?

Therefore, Japan's low-key layout in the industrial robot market is superior to South Korea's technological position in mobile phone production in the science and technology industry.

And this more upstream technological base, in the upcoming 5G era, will allow Japan to easily dabble in South Korea.

More importantly:

In the AI smart age of 5G, the technology accumulation of robots in Japan is much heavier than that in Korea, which only makes mobile phones and daily electronic consumer goods.

It is self-evident that the disputes about who wins and who loses should be compared with those after the 5G era.

Seven inches in South Korea

The rival drama between Korea and Japan is a miniature of the era of mobile Internet in the United States.

In 1988, Samsung released its first mobile phone: Big Brother SH-100. Due to the limitations of technology at that time, this big brother screen could not display too much content, and the phone numbers were not fully displayed.

After 2000, the mobile phone market has entered a real development period with the improvement of mobile network. The first mobile giant was born in Motorola, but that position was later replaced by Nokia.

In 2007, Google's Android Alliance was founded. Faced with the power of Android and Apple, Samsung chose to follow behind, while Sony chose to move upstream.

In 2019, according to the statistics of several authoritative data organizations, Samsung Mobile still ranked the first in the world with 29.47% of shipments, while Japanese companies such as Sony did not appear in any similar report because of their small market share.

Sony, once a big beast competing with Samsung in the mobile phone industry, has not left the mobile phone market behind. In fact, in the CMOS field alone, Sony controls nearly 50% of the market share. In terms of CMOS production, no matter Samsung or other CMOS enterprises, no CMOS production in the world can exist without Japanese enterprises in terms of materials and equipment.

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In addition to CMOS, Samsung accounts for 90% of the global mobile phone market, and has been proud of OLED screen production, but also in the steaming machine and screen production raw materials, completely dependent on Japanese enterprises.

So after Japan cut off three kinds of raw materials for screen and chip production in Korea, the global mobile phone industry was directly concerned about the issue of capacity, and Samsung's old rival in OLED market, Tokyo Oriental, boosted its share price after the news broke out.

Samsung and Sony, behind such mania and retreat, resemble the roles played by South Korea and Japan in the technology industry today.

A huge momentum, standing at the forefront of the mature industrial chain, using all kinds of methods to help upstream manufacturers in the United States to do their best business; a low-key, calm, silent use of their own hard power, proves that Japan has not yet finished a brilliant corner.

But whether South Korea's screens, memory, mobile phones or Japanese CMOS, industrial machines, steam-plating machines, are the U.S. information age.

The rival drama between Korea and Japan is a miniature of the era of mobile Internet in the United States.

In 1988, Samsung released its first mobile phone: Big Brother SH-100. Due to the limitations of technology at that time, this big brother screen could not display too much content, and the phone numbers were not fully displayed.

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After 2000, the mobile phone market has entered a real development period with the improvement of mobile network. The first mobile giant was born in Motorola, but that position was later replaced by Nokia.

In 2007, Google's Android Alliance was founded. Faced with the power of Android and Apple, Samsung chose to follow behind, while Sony chose to move upstream.

As a giant that used to compete with Samsung in the mobile phone industry, Sony still refreshes the limits of black technology on the 4K screen resolution selling point today, but the mobile phone business has long been a non-profit-making experiment.

Probably for Sony, the business of mobile hardware is just a brand presence advertisement. After all, it is not wise to compete with Samsung for a small profit market under the preference of the United States.

Samsung and Sony, behind such mania and retreat, resemble the roles played by South Korea and Japan in the technology industry today.

A huge momentum, standing at the forefront of the mature industrial chain, using all kinds of methods to help upstream manufacturers in the United States to do their best business; a low-key, calm, silent use of their own hard power, proves that Japan has not yet finished a brilliant corner.

But whether South Korea's screens, memory, mobile phones or Japanese CMOS, industrial machines, steam-plating machines, are the U.S. information age.

From 2000 to 2017, it is the honeymoon period between Japan, South Korea and the United States. As the third largest economic country in the world, Japan has not done too much in the relationship between them, but according to another group of open data, the years when South Korea took off are also closely related to Japan's investment.

Among them, Japan accounted for 70% of Korea's direct domestic investment in 1985 and reached a peak of $4.5 billion in 2012.

So, on July 1, 2019, in the face of South Korea,

After the announcement, South Korea said it planned to file a lawsuit with the World Trade Organization accusing Japan of imposing restrictions on the export of key technology materials from South Korea. That's to complain to the United States.

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It's just that in 2019, with the upheaval of the United States' own economic problems and the global turmoil,

Because South Korea has too much in the past.

Afraid of this time, South Korea bumped into its own seven inches, and the seven inches of the holder, it must be their most hated Japan.

The Essence of the Science and Technology War between the United States, Japan and Korea

The significance of 5G for the new era should be no less than that of the United States, which has stepped on the Internet revolution.

In 1995, Japan's GDP of $5.45 trillion accounted for 72% of the total annual GDP of the United States.

However, after 1995, Japan's economy turned downward and plunged into a tumultuous 20-year ups and downs, while the U.S. economy, relying on the Internet revolution, grew from $766 trillion in that year to $200 billion in 2017.

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Similarly, 30 years ago, the top 10 U.S. listed companies belonged to physical enterprises, or IBM or GE, while today's top 10 U.S. market capitalization belonged to Internet companies, which are also known as Microsoft, Google, Apple and Facebook.

Compared with the brilliance of the Internet in the United States, today's Japan still attaches great importance to manufacturing. Even if the self-made mobile phones and computers are also used by Google's Android, Microsoft's Windows, and even the lack of Internet voice, Japan today even localized Facebook has become a luxury.

This is like the warning from American lawyer Harwell at the beginning of the introduction of TRON system in Japan.

And such a warning, with the advent of the 5G era, in the game between China and the United States, replayed.

However, Japan strongly relied on the import demand of the United States in that year, and South Korea's efforts made this country, which had no sovereignty, to compromise according to the United States, just like the first three scenarios and results of the trade war between Japan and the United States.

Today, the United States is on the back of the Asia-Pacific, and Japan's influence on South Korea

Because the 5G track has been opened, Korea and Japan belong to the United States alliance, but according to the survey of the World Service Conference of the BBC in 2014:

Thirteen percent of Japanese think that Korea's influence is positive, 37 percent say negative, while 15 percent think Japan's influence is positive and 79 percent say negative.

As a result, South Korea has directly become the world's worst negative view of Japan.

And Japan is no longer smart, facing Korea, which has taken the lead in commercial 5G construction, I am afraid that anyone will stumble. Because we believe that no country is more afraid of the rise of Korea in the 5G era than Japan.

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However, with the official opening of 5G track, the scientific and technological war between Korea and Japan can only be regarded as the noise outside the track.

Because the once great story of the United States on the Internet is unfolding a new game with the layout of 5G home court.

Compared with the stories of PC supporting Microsoft's $800 billion, 3G and 4G supporting Google's $800 billion and Apple's $100 billion market capitalization, 5G's interconnection, AI and cloud computing seem to bet on a larger future of world change.

The best outcome for the losers is what Samsung and Sony look like in the miniature of the mobile age.But who is willing to accept Japan, which has missed the first place in the world?

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