In the global memory market, Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron have monopolized 95% of the world's memory capacity. The weak memory market this year has seriously affected the revenue of the Big Three. Samsung's last quarter earnings are expected to plummet more than 50%. They obviously will not sit back and watch the price of memory continue to fall, and have begun to adjust the market supply from the production capacity.
The International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI) previously expanded its global fab equipment spending forecast for 2019, from a 14% decline to a 19% decline, but believes it will rebound in 2020 and is expected to grow 20% annually.
On the other hand, Micron said at a recent earnings report that capital expenditures in 2020 will be lower than this year. According to IC Insights, capital expenditures in the DRAM market will be significantly reduced in 2019, with projected capital expenditures of $17 billion for the full year, a 28% drop from 2018, and a memory market capital expenditure of $24 billion last year compared to 2017. The $16 billion in the year rose by 50%. This means that capacity will fall, resulting in a reduction in memory supply on the market.
At present, Micron has announced a specific capacity reduction plan: 5% of memory reduction capacity, and NAND flash memory reduction has increased from 5% of the original plan to 10%. Samsung has previously denied the reduction of NAND flash memory capacity, but Samsung has a hard time in the case of insufficient supply of semiconductor materials. There are 19 kinds of materials used in global semiconductor technology, 14 of which account for more than 50% of the market, Samsung The road to maintaining capacity is also extremely hard.
For price trends, IC Insights expects global trade uncertainty factors to remain in place this year, so memory prices will remain weak in the second half of the year, but due to the significant reduction in capital expenditures of major companies in 2019, it will help the market to digest inventories, and DRAM memory supply and demand in 2020 will be Will balance.