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Should 5G be an important indicator of new mobile phone purchases in 2019?

via:博客园     time:2019/9/23 18:08:12     readed:151

Author: Wang Xinxi

This year's sales of the 11-series of the iPhone have shocked many people. Earlier data showed that sales of the Skycat iPhone 11 on the first day of pre-sale increased by 335% compared with the XR of the iPhone. Pre-sale sales of Jingdong iPhone 11 increased by 480% year on year. At present, the new color matching of the iPhone 11 series is sold out, with a premium of more than 500 yuan for dark night green. There are even cattle in stock, and the price of dark night green is increased by 1000 yuan. Green and purple are also out of stock, with price increases ranging from 200 to 500.

It can be seen that although a large number of consumers say bath bully and ugliness on their mouths, they still buy them.

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In contrast to the 4G version of the iPhone 11 series, many manufacturers have released 5G mobile phones early, but it does not seem to have triggered a rush to buy 5G.

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Knowingly, some people are also asking why the Mingming 5G network is far from universal, but many people will have 5G as the most important indicator of mobile phone purchase? Li Nan, a former senior vice president of Meizu Science and Technology, also said thatAll 5G phones before the iPhone 12 were mice.

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Don't underestimate 5G layout speed

From the historical development process, technological progress is an important force to promote consumer demand. 5G is the strategic point of contention in the future, even among countries, and its importance is beyond doubt.

In the face of the surge of the 5G wave, many consumers are at a crossroads, facing a choice of anxiety

This actually responds to consumer psychology.Especially those around consumers, etc., there are more parties.

What we need to know is that although 5G network coverage still has a relatively long process, the development process of 5G may accelerate in the next year or two.

A basic common sense is that a 4G mobile phone can never experience the experience improvement brought by the gradual coverage of 5G network.It's like driving a school car to learn why the mainstream is to learn manual gear, because learning manual gear can easily drive a car with automatic gear, but the driver's license of automatic gear can't drive manual gear.

The taste of 5G mobile phone will not weaken any experience of the original 4G high-end mobile phone, but it has 5G new functions and playing methods that the 4G mobile phone can not experience, although it needs to go through a long period of gradual improvement of 5G hardware and software. So is it the mouse that bought the 5G mobile phone? Not at all.

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From the progress point of view, according to the data of China, Singapore, longitude and latitude, Beijing is expected to build more than 10,000 5G base stations by the end of 2019; Shanghai plans to build 10,000 5G base stations in 2019 and 20,000 5G base stations in 2020; Guangzhou clearly sets the target of not less than 20,000 5G base stations in 2019, and the whole city in 2021. It has built 65,000 5G base stations, and Shenzhen plans to build 15,000 5G base stations by the end of 2019.

However, we can never catch up with the change. From the perspective of expectation, the speed of the second and third lines will be slower when the first-tier cities basically complete the construction of 5G base stations in 2020. However, from the current domestic attention to 5G, the speed of 5G network construction and user popularity in reality will often exceed expectations.

Someone's referring to the situation when a 4G mobile phone is present.On December 4, 2013, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially issued a 4G license. At that time, many people in the industry said that the popularization of 4G is far away, and 3G mobile phones can be used first.But in just one year, in September 2014, the total number of 3G and 4G subscribers of China Mobile has reached 285.4 million, and the number of 4G subscribers has reached 40.95 million. In August and September, China Mobile added an average of more than 10 million new 4G subscribers per month. By the end of 2015, the total number of 4G users in China reached 386 million.

That is to say, if the pace of 5G popularization speeds up, in 2021, first-tier cities using the iPhone 11 may no longer be able to experience the super-high-speed experience brought about by 5G.

Therefore, we can't deny the 5G speed and the importance of the 5G target just because Apple's new iPhone uses 4G.

5G does not exist in advance

We can't think of 5G as false demand and gimmick when technology is not mature, and it's difficult to derive excellent 5G products, which is the same short-sighted performance.

Mr. Wu Jun once pointed out a phenomenon:

In the era of 2G mobile communication, everyone's demand for mobile phones is nothing more than phone calls and text messages, so at that time, it was considered that 2G was enough, and 3G was a false demand. In the 1990s, Qualcomm developed 3G technology based on CDMA, but it has not been able to find a good application.

KDDI, a Japanese company, took the lead in implementing 3G commercial operations in 2003, hoping to solve the pain point of music download in the 2G era, but the problem of the popularity of 3G services was that the hardware and applications at that time could not keep up at all. Later, there were low-power ARM processors, power-saving Android operating systems, batteries with capacity density doubling, memory capable of large capacity, cloud computing services, and the popularity of 3G mobile phones. So that a variety of applications based on mobile terminals have been well developed, but also completed the closed loop of cloud computing mobile Internet.

This is a good example of technology creating markets.

Nowadays, 5G is facing the same situation. From hardware to software to network, it is still in its infancy. Although Huawei Hessi Kirin 9905 G version, Samsung 980 and Qualcomm 7 series have been released, the 5G baseband built in SoC is still immature, and suppliers such as radio frequency and antenna need to continue to iterate, and the operating system needs to be upgraded. Level 1, power consumption, network base station construction and other supporting needs to be synchronized follow-up.

Nevertheless, it can not be said that 5G is a pseudo-requirement, and the application scenario of 5G can not be seen from the perspective of the 4G era.

The upgrading of 4G to 5G is a process from quantitative change to qualitative change. It provides a new infrastructure and stage for innovation and faces more application scenarios. For example, the International Telecommunication Union considers that 5G has three main application scenarios: enhanced high-speed mobile broadband network, low-power Internet of Things, low-latency and high-reliability network. Network communication.

That is to say, the network in 5G era becomes more complex. It is not only a simple communication network and network service network, but also carries the Internet of Things, intelligent transportation business, intelligent family and urban management business. In the 5G application scenario in life, i.e. mobile broadband network, UHD video/UHD live broadcasting/cloud work/cloud games/augmented reality/virtual reality and other applications are included.

It's important to know that Cook believes that 5G is ahead of the game in the interest of Apple itself, and that the new iPhone does not support 5G for its own reasons.

For example, the author mentioned a few points before:

First, the recession of the U.S. telecommunications industry is obvious. In the 5G era, there is no telecommunications equipment supplier in the U.S. that can compete with Nokia, Ericsson and Huawei, and Apple's 5G progress is not fast enough.

Secondly, Apple's domestic market lags behind in 5G infrastructure construction, especially in the United States, where there is a serious shortage of optical fiber infrastructure, and 5G can not achieve ultra-high-speed data transmission without the strong support of optical fiber cables.

The third is that in terms of product sales, Apple needs to rely on 4G phone traffic, 5G brings power consumption, high power consumption will also drag down the iPhone11 series is not easy to come up with an additional 4 to 5 hours of endurance and so on.

That is to say, Apple is currently on the defensive.Consumers need to be persuaded to pay through a 5G perspective.However, 5G is the core infrastructure of the information society, and does not exist from now to the future.

Manufacturers can have their own arrangements, but the world has other ones.

Apple's follow-up on the communications network has been slow since the past. The first iPhone was released in 2007, but does not support 3G. It was only in 2008 that iPhone3 officially supported 3G, five or six years later than mainstream brands.

Some data show that the first 3G phone is Panasonic, the first 4G phone is the HTC EVO 4G, the HTC launched in 2010 with the Android 2.1 version of the HTC Sense interface of the flagship smartphone, but Panasonic or HTC did not occupy the commanding heights of the mobile phone industry at the time.

And we found that the first iPhone to support 4G was the iPhone5, which was released in the fall of 2012, when Apple was almost a year or two behind the mainstream brands at the time. It seems that the rhythm of 5 gigabytes is basically the same as that of 5 gigabytes.

From the past communication history, although Apple's follow-up to the new generation of communications technology is always slow, it has not affected its market leadership, and those fast-track manufacturers have not finally stood at the top of the wave.

Therefore, we can think that the follow-up speed of the new generation of communication technology may not determine the product sales, operation and market share harvest of mobile phone brands, nor can we see the rise and fall of these mobile phone brands.

However, it is important to realize that the 5G era is the age of Internet of Things, which is a qualitative difference from the past communication times, so it is not very good to use the same strategy in the 5G era to take the dominant power again.

So far, companies ranging from nokia, ericsson,Huawei and zte to global carriers have been scrambling around the world for 5g network orders, all on the ground. If, according to Cook, they didn't realize that 5G was an advanced species?

From Huawei's point of view, there are more than 60 5G contracts, with turnover of more than $100 billion in 2018, almost equal to the sum of the three BAT companies combined. Nokia relied on 5G technology and patent advantages and won a number of 5G orders in 2018, especially with T-Mobile, the third largest operator in the United States, which signed a $3.5 billion 5G network commercial cooperation agreement for several years. Nokia's total revenue exceeded 22.6 billion euros in 2018, and its share price rose sharply.

This actually shows that 5G is bringing huge profits to these manufacturers. Therefore, from Cook's 5G advanced point of view, if these manufacturers do not move, it will be impossible to promote the progress of 5G technology and create huge profits for themselves through 5G.

therefore,In the face of new things, new trends can have their own arrangements, but the world has other arrangements, and the late game is not applicable to all times.It is a better way to take the initiative to set standards and take the lead in innovative ways of playing. The advanced version of 5G is more Cook's business language, which aims to cover up the dilemma of the lack of 5G products.

Because no matter how many advantages it is, no support for 5G will be a disadvantage that Apple can't ignore. Some people called, you want to buy a car, find that it is luxurious, the LED headlights, the infinity window, the panoramic roof, the leather interior, the super-large space, the shock is comfortable, the result opens the engine cover to the first glance is a 1.0 three-cylinder, the key car is also very expensive, You don't think you'd think about it when you buy a car?

One step ahead of the layout of 5G, after all, it will not become a disadvantage.

We see that after the launch of the iPhone 11, Huawei Mat30 series new products are also released. Compared with Apple, its highlight is the full load of 5G technology. Of course, it also needs to wait for the coverage of 5G base stations. The coverage schedule is not controlled by the manufacturer itself, although the 5G network coverage is temporarily insufficient and may be a better distance experience. There is still a gap, but 5G mobile phones will never be a disadvantage of a manufacturer.

People who are willing to experience 5G mobile phones can only say that they are more forward-looking and are more active in trying new things. In fact, if they are entrepreneurs of 5G application scenarios, manufacturers of related industry chains or industry personages, APP developers and enthusiasts, they will experience 5G first, and may also take the lead in discovering it. The shortcomings, pain points and limitations, or insight into the business opportunities, take the lead in thinking and seizing new business models and opportunities.

Of course, inevitably, many of these manufacturers

According to Wu Jun, there are three criteria for judging the authenticity of 5G technology:First, large bandwidth and high speed;Secondly, links with high reliability and low latency, and thirdly, support massive concurrent devices.Of course, under the influence of market business rules, pseudo 5G will be quickly eliminated from the market.

But then again, you need to realize,At present, it can not be seen that the speed of 5G communication follow-up can determine the rise and fall of a mobile phone manufacturer.After all,From the past 2G, 3G, and 4G era, those manufacturers who follow up the communication system step by step have not reached the top of the wave.

But generally speaking, the more uncertainties there are for mobile phone manufacturers, the more efforts they have to make. In the face of a new trend that is bound to come, it will not be a wrong strategy and decision to layout 5G mobile phones first, to study 5G pain points and the direction of commercialization evolution. For consumers, the first users to experience 5G are not the mocked mice in the population.

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