In 2019, domestic memory and flash memory have made important progress. Yangtze River storage has produced 64 layer stack 3D flash memory, and Hefei Changxin has produced DDR4 memory.
In addition, violet light will also enter the memory market in 2021, which is the most important three memory chip power in China.
But even if we start mass production, it will still be a long-term and arduous task for domestic memory chips to ramp up,It will take at least a few years to have an impact on global markets。
Guo Jin Securities pointed out that Hefei's Changxin and Changjiang storage and other domestic large factories had poor production rate at the early stage of mass production, and were subject to the acceptance and installation of new coronavirus affecting equipment. It is expected that the storage of semiconductor equipment in the US / Japan / Europe will be delayed for several months.
In addition, there are still several generations of gap between the design and process technology of domestic companies and international large factories, such as the 64 layer NAND vs. 96 / 112 / 128 layer NAND of Yangtze River storage, and the 1x DRAM vs. 1z dram of Samsung / Hynix / MgO of Hefei Changxin, which are not competitive in quality, specification, quantity, cost and price.
Based on this, Guojin Securities currently estimates its global market share for memory DRAM NAND semiconductors at No more than 5% in 2022 and 12% in 2025.
That is to say, in five years, domestic memory and flash memory can take more than 10% share in the global market. Compared with now, it will have a qualitative improvement. But generally speaking, domestic flash memory and memory are still in the minority, and the impact on the market may be far behind Samsung, Meguiar, Toshiba and other companies.