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Interpretation of Baidu's Q4 financial report in 2019: to alleviate the downturn in the first three quarters, it is necessary to define the growth point in the future

via:博客园     time:2020/2/28 22:42:18     readed:89

Tencent News "looking forward" Zhang Jun

On February 28, 2020, baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU) released its unaudited financial report for Q4 2019 and the whole year.

Fourth quarter: slightly increase in income, pay attention to saving

Baidu's total revenue in the fourth quarter was 28.9 billion yuan (US $4.15 billion), up 6% from the same period last year. Although the increase is not large, compared with Baidu's performance in the first three quarters of last year, the downturn has eased.

Baidu's revenue growth in Q1, Q2 and Q3 in 2019 is 15%, 1% and 0%, respectively. Although the growth rate of Q1 is good, baidu lost money for the first time since it went public this quarter, casting a cloud over the former Internet giant.

Before that, baidu issued a performance forecast on January 31, 2020, showing that Q4 revenue in 2019 was between 28.3 billion and 28.9 billion yuan (about 4.06 billion to 4.15 billion US dollars). At the same time, baidu forecasts a profit of 6.2-6.7 billion yuan (about 890-970 million US dollars). According to non-U.S. GAAP, Baidu's profit for the quarter ranged from 8.9 billion to 9.4 billion yuan ($1.28 billion to 1.36 billion).

Baidu's net profit was 6.3 billion yuan ($911 million), according to the quarterly report. According to non-U.S. GAAP, Baidu's fourth quarter net profit was 9.2 billion yuan ($1.32 billion).

The performance is the upper limit of Baidu's previous performance forecast, in which online advertising revenue is 20.8 billion yuan, accounting for 72% of the total revenue, up 2% year on year. Other income mainly from iqiyi, cloud services and intelligent hardware was 8.1 billion yuan, accounting for 28%, up 35% year on year. The cloud service revenue is not disclosed separately.

However, the advertising industry will generally show signs of recovery in the fourth quarter, which creates favorable conditions for Baidu's financial report. Whether it can continue to maintain and continue to improve becomes the next focus.

Throughout the year: maintain a revenue scale of 100 billion yuan, with cash flow as the king

In 2019, Baidu's annual revenue was 107.4 billion, up 5% year-on-year, which is the second year for Baidu to maintain its revenue scale of 100 billion. Before that, baidu broke through 100 billion revenue for the first time in 2018, reaching 102.3 billion yuan.

Affected by the current epidemic, the offline business will be tightened, and advertisers will cut their budgets, which will affect Baidu's revenue in the first quarter of this year. In the subsequent conference call, Yu Zhengjun, baidu CFO, said that due to the impact of the epidemic and the extension of holidays, the performance was relatively weak, many stores were not opened, and offline activities were impacted. A large part of the company's revenue came from offline activities of users, which are currently affected.

He added that the online business also contributed a lot of revenue to Baidu, such as online games, e-commerce and online education. After the Spring Festival, the company's growth is relatively weak. They will pay attention to the weekly growth and change. Compared with last year, the growth in the first quarter of 2019 is not very good, similar to the situation in the first quarter of this year.

In this situation, baidu stores a lot of cash. According to the financial report, as of December 31, 2019, Baidu's cash and its equivalents amounted to 147.4 billion yuan. Without iqiyi, Baidu has 135.9 billion yuan on its own account. Baidu's free cash flow is 10.1 billion yuan, excluding iqiyi's free cash flow is 8 billion yuan.

Business performance: need a clearer visible growth point

In terms of mobile ecology, by the end of December 2019, baidu app had an average daily active user (dau) of 195 million, up 21% year on year. There are 2.6 million Baijia brands, up 38% year on year. However, baidu did not disclose the average usage time of users.

According to quest mobile, as of June 2019, the number of wechat apps had reached 700 million, and 180 apps had a monthly life of more than 5 million. According to the data released by Alipay in September 2019, the monthly activities of Alipay small programs exceeded 500 million, and the total number of small programs exceeded 1 million.

Baidu highlighted the trusteeship page in this financial report. Hosting page revenue reached nearly a quarter of Baidu's online marketing revenue.

In terms of artificial intelligence, as of December 2019, dueros had more than 5 billion voice queries per month, up three times year-on-year. Apollo has cooperated with 23 cities and won the first 40 automatic driving licenses issued by Beijing in December 2019. In addition, Tesla China chose Baidu map as its local supplier. The above is the progress of artificial intelligence business, but Baidu did not disclose the revenue and other relevant data brought by the above business.

It can be seen that although Baidu's revenue and profits have rebounded and mobile data has grown, it is facing increasingly fierce competition with byte beating. Byte jumping has launched an attack on Baidu's traditional advantage business search from the field of information flow, and the two companies will be more anxious in the competition for advertisers.

What's more, Baidu's future growth point is still a little fuzzy, and the AI business continues to advance, but the commercialization is far away.

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