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The new crown research model shows that 36000 lives could be saved if the United States started the blockade a week in advance

via:cnBeta.COM     time:2020/5/23 9:10:22     readed:32

According to foreign media reports, the United States is facing a severe covid-19 epidemic. Since the outbreak, the number of newly diagnosed cases in the country has exceeded 1.6 million, and the death toll is close to 100000. Researchers at Columbia University created aModel, which shows what would happen if the blockade measures were started one week in advance across the United States.According to the model, if the blockade is initiated ahead of time, about 36000 new coronavirus deaths in the United States may be avoidable.


"We found a significant reduction in the number of basic infections of new coronaviruses associated with maintaining social distance and other control measures in major metropolitan areas," the researchers wrote. "Counterfactual simulations show that if these same controls were implemented only 1-2 weeks in advance, a large number of cases and deaths could be avoided." Specifically, they continue to say that at the national level, 61.6 per cent of reported infections and 55 per cent of reported deaths can be avoided.


According to the researchers' model, if cities and states across the United States began to block and restrict social contact on March 1 - about two weeks before the first Americans started staying at home because of the coronavirus - most new coronavirus deaths (83%) in the United States could be avoided.


Jeffrey shaman, an epidemiologist at Columbia University and the leader of the research team, told the New York Times: "it's a very critical stage to reduce the number of deaths in that small period of time and seize it in that growth stage."

About 28000 people had been infected with the new coronavirus by the time the "home based order" was implemented across the United States in March, according to researchers. However, due to the lack of testing and contact tracking in the United States at that time, as of mid March, only 99 confirmed cases were known in the United States.

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