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Why did Tesla Q2 outperform expectations?

via:博客园     time:2020/7/24 1:26:37     readed:1011


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Flow of knowledge (ZHISHILLL)

Tesla just announced its second quarter results. After hours, the share price rose more than 4% as the company beat expectations and made a fourth consecutive quarterly profit.

Compared with the average forecast compiled by Refinitiv: Tesla earnings per share of $2.18, expected to be 3 cents. Revenue was $6.04 billion, which was expected to be $5.37 billion. A net gain of $104 million (GAAP). Tesla's four-quarter profit also means it has now met the standard for inclusion in the S & P 500.

From the macro environment, the US capital market is quite in pursuit of Tesla, and the acceptance of the new energy automobile industry is extremely high. On the evening of June 10, Tesla's shares broke through $1000, surpassing traditional automaker Toyota as the world's largest automaker. Tesla's shares hit a record high of $1794.53 on July 13, and are still trading at $1592.33.

Under the influence of the epidemic, global auto companies have suffered a lot, and Tesla's second quarter financial report is brilliant, which also gives investors satisfactory answers. In view of this financial report release, we can learn three problems, what makes Tesla Q2 performance exceed expectations? What does the Chinese market mean to Tesla? What's Tesla's next step?

Why Tesla Q2 performance can exceed expectations?

A year ago, slay's share price was about $260. Now it's trading at more than $1500. The 20q2 results released, Tesla's profit of more than 100 million US dollars, for crazy investors to feed a reassurance. However, whether this reassuring pill has water content or not and whether it will have sustainability, we need to specifically understand why Tesla has such performance.

1. More than $400 million in carbon credits

Tesla's Q1 net profit is $16 million, while Q2's net profit is $104 million, which is very prominent in the turbulent market environment. However, this profit is still somewhat water.

In the same period last year, Tesla reported revenue from regulatory credit of $112.2 million. By the second quarter of 2020, that figure has almost tripled to $428 million in regulatory credit.

In other words, Tesla received a policy subsidy of up to $428 million by selling points, but only made a profit of $100 million. However, on the optimistic side, the subsidy has increased 3 times, but the net profit has increased by 7 times compared with the last quarter, which seems to be a breakthrough.

Zachary kirkhorn, chief financial officer, said Tesla expects its regulatory credit revenues to double in 2020 (compared with 2019) and continue for some time (the timing is uncertain). But in order to achieve long-term profitability, the company's goal is to reduce car production costs and gain more from software over time, that is, its fully automatic driving option.

2. Fully automated driving deferred revenue

Tesla also explained on the conference call why the financial performance of the last quarter was so impressive.

Foremost among these is the recording of deferred revenue for the $48 million FSD suite. FSD Autopilot is an advanced driver assistance package that sells for $8,000 in the United States. Tesla's

Q2 can confirm that the deferred income of FSD autopilot reaches 48 million US dollars. The revenue from autopilot software will also be an important source of revenue and net profit for Tesla in the future.

3. Reduced R & D spending

On the other hand, the plant closures caused by the outbreak did impose a burden on Tesla, but the reduction of personnel and wages also increased profit margins.

While Musk has promised its fans and shareholders that Tesla will release its own super-battery to supply Tesla's cars after 2020

4. Excellent delivery capability

Tesla outperformed expectations in terms of vehicle production and delivery in the second quarter. Tesla delivered about 88000 units in the first quarter, 10614 model s / X and 80277 model 3 / Y in the second quarter, totaling 90891.

The California factory shut down for 48 days from March to may, which greatly affected the production and delivery in the second quarter, but the delivery in the second quarter exceeded that in the first quarter. This result brightened the market.

It can also be seen that the Shanghai factory has played a great role in Tesla's production, because the rapid resumption of production in Shanghai has kept Tesla from getting into trouble this year. Under the impact of external environment, Tesla's delivery capability is still excellent.

Tesla Entry PriceBut consumers still pay

Affected by the epidemic, China's overall sales of new energy vehicles declined this year, and only in May did the sales volume rise month on month. However, the sales volume of domestic Tesla Model 3 was brilliant. Affected by the epidemic situation in February, the sales volume immediately exceeded 10000 in March. In April, consumers began to wait and see the price, and the sales volume dropped. In May and June, the sales volume exceeded 10000 vehicles, with a month on month growth of more than 30%.

At the beginning of 2020, the model 3 standard upgrade version will take the lead in localization. Using Panasonic / LG Chemical's high nickel three-dimensional cylindrical cell, it can reach 445km, the maximum speed is 225km / h, and the 100km acceleration is 5.6S. The guiding price is 324000 yuan and the selling price is 299000 yuan after subsidy.


In April, the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles will be implemented in 2020, and the subsidy policy will be adjusted. The price of new energy passenger vehicles before subsidy must be less than 300000 yuan (including 300000 yuan). This also means that Tesla Model 3 standard version or long-term version with a price of more than 300000 before subsidy will not enjoy the subsidy policy.

As a result, the price of the model is reduced to meet the basic requirements of obtaining subsidies. In May 2020, the guide price of the standard version of Tex model 3 will be reduced to 292000 yuan, and the price will be 272000 yuan after subsidy.

In May 2020, the domestic long endurance version of model 3 will be delivered in mass production. This model still uses three-dimensional cylindrical cells, and the weight of the car body is increased by 131kg to 1745kg compared with the standard version of 1614kg due to the increase of battery monomer. When the energy density of the battery system is increased to 161 WH / kg, the endurance of 200 km is increased to 668 km. The 100 km acceleration also increased to 5.3 seconds from 5.6 seconds of the standard endurance upgrade.


In June, the Ministry of industry and information technology released the catalogue of recommended models for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles, which disclosed the basic information of lithium iron phosphate version of model 3. The following conjectures about the cost performance of localization are gradually implemented.

Although the price of Tesla has changed, consumers still pay the bill in the tangle. In such a strong momentum, Tesla is chasing after the victory to further gain market share and quickly launch the model 3 cost reduction of LiFePO4 battery.

Tesla seems to have no rock bottom price in the Chinese market. If demand continues to falter, prices will continue to fall to unimaginable levels. The lowest price of domestic Tesla may reach about 250000 yuan. But even so, Tesla's sales strategy has worked in China, and consumers are still willing to pay for Tesla so far.


In addition to being Tesla's potential largest sales market, China's production capacity is also very abundant. Thanks to the large volume of Chinese factories, the output of model 3 and model y declined relatively little month on month under the influence of the epidemic. At the same time, affected by the continuous increase of model 3 delivery in China and the outbreak of model y production and sales in the United States, the delivery volume in the second quarter turned positive on a month on month basis, exceeding market expectations. This part is also the most beautiful card Tesla played in the second quarter.

I'm not stopping, The location of the next super factory has been determined

From the perspective of Shanghai Tesla super factory, Tesla's performance growth cannot be separated from its global distribution of super factories.

At wednesday's earnings call, mr. musk also announced the location of the next superplant. Musk said Tesla will build the next super factory near Austin, Texas. The area covers about 2,000 acres and is about 15 minutes from downtown Austin. Will be one

At present, in addition to the battery super factory in Nevada and the clean energy production and storage super factory in Buffalo City, New York, Tesla super factory has been identified in four places around the world. They are Fremont super factory, Shanghai Super factory, Berlin suburb Brandenburg state glenhead super factory, Texas super factory.

Tesla plans to use its car plant in Fremont, California, exclusively for the production of model s and model x vehicles in all markets, as well as the production of model 3 and model y in western North America.


The Texas plant will be used to produce its cybertruck, semi, model 3 and model y vehicles for eastern North America.

This year, Tesla added a new cross-border SUV model y to its lineup. According to foreign media reports, Tesla's super factory in Shanghai is undergoing large-scale construction this year, including the installation of body stamping equipment. The main task is to build a cross-border sports multi-purpose vehicle model y production plant. At present, it has been basically completed and is expected to start delivery in 2021.

Tesla said on wednesday:

After the Q2 financial report was announced, Tesla's performance still greatly exceeded the market expectations. Although deferred income and carbon credits have played a significant role. However, we can see that under the background of Tesla's global layout, the strong high-quality supply chain has withstood the impact of the epidemic, Tesla's super factory is still pushing forward, and Tesla's automation technology is still leading. Everything's going on step by step, and investors may still be able to keep going crazy about it.

[introduction to titanium media authors: zhishilll, please contact cfacpa666 for personal wechat, and please indicate the copyright for reprint. ]

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