Source: Yuanchuan science and Technology Review (ID: kechuangych)
Author Kou min
Head picture CFP.CN
Faced with an overseas ban in May 2019, Huawei solemnly declared its own operating system
However, three months later, there were no documents, no API、 and no code examples at Hongmeng 1.0's launch
After more than a year of questioning, Hongmeng 2.0 finally unveiled its true face at the Huawei developer conference in September. Not only brought code, but also in Jiuyang, the United States and other home appliances to show some application. Huawei even plans to carry Hongmeng on 100 million Huawei devices and 100 million tripartite devices in the future.
This plan is very good. Once the data is calculated, it can be divided into IOS and Android on the mobile phone terminal. But there is a little cold in reality.
In a word, Hong Meng, can not save Huawei mobile phone.
So, who will use Hongmeng after nearly two years of official propaganda?
Can Hongmeng save Huawei cell phone?
Hongmeng 2.0 officially released, people are most concerned about: Hongmeng, after all can save Huawei mobile phone?
The answer is very clear, only by a Hongmeng, difficult to pull the overall situation.
The background of the official announcement of Hongmeng 1.0 is that Huawei has just been included in the list of us entities. Google announced that it would suspend some business contacts with Huawei, and GMS would cut off the supply of Huawei. At this time, Huawei still has cores available and lost GMS. Although it has affected the sales of overseas markets to a certain extent, it has maintained the growth of domestic market for one year.
The Huawei's response was also very simple :240 million mobile phones were shipped Huawei 2019 and 105 million in the first half of 2020. By the order of magnitude of Huawei mobile phones, Hongmeng modeled iOS, set up its own ecology, not impossible.
However, on the eve of the official announcement of 2.0, the US sanctions further escalated. Not only can TSMC and SMIC be unable to manufacture Kirin chips for Huawei, but even Qualcomm and MediaTek can't sell chips to Huawei. Mate 40 may become the last Huawei flagship machine carrying Kirin chips.
"Daily Economic News" is a direct burst, the current Huawei's Hayes chip inventory can only be used in early 2021, and next year mobile phone shipments have been significantly adjusted to 50 to 70 million. What is the concept of this shipment? About the same as 2013,2014 Huawei smartphone shipments. Basically, back ten years ago.
So, Huawei phone is stuck in a chip, not a systemIf the ban continues, Huawei's production of high-end mobile phones will continue to decline. Hongmeng system can't rescue Huawei mobile phone.
So, can Huawei mobile phone business help Hongmeng? For example, by the stock market. Unfortunately, it is basically impossible. The operating system needs a
The operating system can not exist in isolation, more developers need to participate in the co construction. Only the developers who participate in the market can see enough motivation.
What's more, the upgrading of general system and software is synchronized with the improvement of hardware performance: in the PC era, Intel generation and windows generation drain the last drop of computer performance; in the mobile phone era, the generation of Apple IOS, every time Apple releases a new computer, the old IOS always seems to change its name.
If the hardware is backward, then it can not drive the operation of the software; if the software is backward, the performance of the hardware can not be brought into play. Huawei's stock of mobile phones with backward performance cannot naturally cultivate a Hongmeng ecology that keeps pace with the times.
So, another question is, since Huawei can't take it with you, OVM the three big competitors? Will they come and help?
This involves another problem, An open ecosystem requires a system leader who does not have to end up in person.
02. What should the mobile phone system do?
There are two types of system ecological construction, one is the vertical mode of apple, and one family does all of them. The other is open to third parties, such as Google's Android.
The vertical mode requires not only hardware and software, but also users' belief in the product itself. That's why Apple's IOS was made and Samsung's tizen failed.
To adopt the third-party mode, we need a leader who can win the hearts of the people. Not only can they not go out to compete with the hardware and ecological enterprises, but also make sure that they can make profits, so that the ecology can become bigger. This can be seen from the failure of Windows Phone.
At that time, as soon as Windows Phone launched, Microsoft was blatantly pulling off the shelf. While samsung, LG、HTC、Huawei and zte, alcatel and fujitsu have personally played for WP. But WP not only announced a high-profile alliance with Nokia, the two also signed a love letter-like cooperation agreement, Microsoft and Nokia to work out the product development route, even the system map to Nokia development.
This kind of eyebrow-raising naturally annoys other WP players when JoeKelly, the head of international media, complained in an interview with the Seattle Times
What's more, just after WP got a hit, Microsoft bought Nokia in early 2014 and yelled at Amazon's best and inexpensive widows phone.
The result of too much force is that Samsung, Huawei and HTC, which were dissatisfied at that time, were directly changed from partners to competitors, and third-party manufacturers withdrew from WP ecology one after another: Huawei's last WP mobile phone was released in mid-2013, Samsung finished the last WP model in early 2014, and even HTC, which has the best relationship with Microsoft, was in April 2014 A mobile phone was rushed out in January.
When Microsoft released the mobile version of windows 10 in 2015, which was regarded as the Savior by Microsoft, there was no one in the WP ecosystem except Microsoft itself.
Unlike Microsoft, which wants to use the operating system to achieve both hardware and software, Google's original intention is to make a phone
So, even though Google acquired Motorola, the other major feature machine, as early as 2011, it just stopped after it symbolically launched an xbhone.
On Google's self-developed mobile phones, for the early nexus series, Google has all adopted the cooperative mode of shipment, which plays a role in proofing for the hardware enterprises in the ecology. The subsequent pixel series, though developed by Google itself, is still a prototype of native Android.
It is mainly used as a development and testing platform, and the core users are still not in the C end. Google's attitude is the same. I'm just playing. Don't take it seriously. As a result, in the case of a 52% increase in sales of pixel Series in 2019, only 7.2 million units will be sold, and no one cares at all.
These initiatives have inspired the confidence and enthusiasm of Android ecology, and jointly created 67% of Android Market share.
In the construction process of WP and Android, we can see a clear conclusion: if you want to make a mobile phone system, don't compete with mobile phone manufacturers. After all, a player who is both a referee and an athlete is not welcomed by other competitors.
If Huawei Hongmeng wants to use it on mobile phones, it is in this embarrassing situation.
Huawei and OVM are direct competitors. Past years
03. Do you want to do the Internet of things?
Since Hongmeng's opponent is not Android, who is Hongmeng made for? The answer is the Internet of things.
According to GSMA data, from 2010 to 2019, the number of Internet of things devices in the world will grow at a compound annual rate of 22%. In 2019, the number of device connections will reach 12 billion, and by 2025, the number of Internet of things devices will reach 24.6 billion.
The characteristics of the Internet of things are that the function is relatively single, the scene is relatively specific, and there are many types of things. Therefore, the Internet of things does not need a system with extremely powerful kernel functions, but needs a system that can easily cross scenes and connect various fragmented scenes.
The new blue ocean brought by this demand change undoubtedly gives Huawei the opportunity to change lanes and overtake. Hongmeng also has the opportunity to become a distributed operating system based on the Internet of things era.
In fact, it is not the first time Huawei has made an IOT operating system. As early as 2015 at the Huawei network conference, Huawei launched a IOT operating system called liteos. At present, it has been applied in many fields such as bracelet, door lock, camera and so on.
From the perspective of technical architecture, liteos is also the predecessor of Hongmeng OS. The core code released by Hongmeng's open source is mainly composed of liteos.
In addition, from the corresponding technical indicators of Hongmeng, we can also see one or two: this year, we will face the traditional Internet of things terminals such as smart screen, watch, car, and so on, and in October next year, we will move to memory terminals below 4GB. In terms of 4G memory, it is obviously far from the mobile phones with 256g memory.
In other words, at least in the next year, Hongmeng will still be a typical Internet of things operating system.
The reality is that after the official debut of harmonyos 2.0, Huawei's mobile phone did not take the lead in carrying it. Instead, Midea, Jiuyang and other household appliances took Hongmeng's first launch.
What's more, in the field of aiot, there is no such problem as Huawei's mobile phone. According to the data released by the Huawei developer conference, Huawei still has a lot of capital to do ecology in the alot field. The younger brothers have a lot of money
1) with 800 partners to build a HiLink intelligent hardware ecology, create more than 3000 products, with 50 million intelligent hardware users, the cumulative shipments of more than 220 million;
2) Huawei Smart Life app, which is used with smart hardware, has 400 million installed capacity, 50 million activated users and 1.08 billion requests per day;
3) Huawei hicar has already cooperated with more than 150 vehicles, and plans to pre install more than 5million vehicles in 2021.
Combined with Huawei's own layout in smart watches, smart screens, VR, body fat scales and other fields, Hongmeng is far ahead of its competitors in the field of Internet of things.
Of course, the premise of all this is still that Huawei can't go out to do soymilk machine, air conditioner, lampblack machine in person, and do not compete with its own customers.
04. there will be a chance before the end of the game
For Huawei, the best answer to be Hongmeng is not to pursue instant success, but to not wait for opportunities at the card table.
In the mobile phone field, Hongmeng is declining. But in the field of Internet of things, the technical difficulty is not very big. Although the industry will not erupt in a few days, it is still a trend worthy of card.
When we review the history of business, we will find that: many successful enterprises do not fight hard on the territory of the leaders, but quietly accumulate technology, save the fire, and survive the cold winter; when new technical lines appear, they will unite with the masses to overturn the vested interests in the old technology line.
This is how ASML's wet engraving beat Japan's dry engraving, as does Google's Android's victory over Nokia's Symbian.
Who is Hongmeng for? This is not a rush question.
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