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YY "sell oneself", baidu picks up double-edged sword

via:博客园     time:2020/10/27 9:32:08     readed:210

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Wen / Ma Rong

Editor | Han Qing

Source: new knowledge of science and Technology (ID: kejixinzhi)

Baidu is seeking a wholly-owned acquisition of YY's domestic business. YY responded that it would not comment. Prior to this, the relevant acquisition rumors once made YY's parent company's pre market share price rise by more than 14%.

People close to YY told "technology news" that Baidu's purchase price for YY's domestic business was more than $3 billion, close to $4 billion. As of October 23, the U.S. stock closed, and the market value of happy gathering era was only 6.879 billion US dollars, which means half of the country will be delivered to Baidu.

In a similar time, another show live as the main business of the listed company Momo is also experiencing major changes. On October 24, Momo founder and CEO Tang Yan resigned from CEO post, by the former president Wang Li. In the internal announcement, Wang Li praised Momo's profitability, business model and innovation ability, but all based on the same grim background

From 2018, with the rapid rise of e-commerce live broadcast, the stock prices of listed companies show a collective decline, YY、 Momo, Yingke, dove interaction and other show concept companies are facing the dilemma of continued downturn in stock prices. The whole industry faces the growth engine aging problem to become more prominent. Under the dramatic change of the industry, the gathering era will further determine the direction of focusing on overseas markets, Momo will also enter a series of adjustment rhythm. As an early form of live entertainment, live show is experiencing a turning point and upheaval.

01 eldest son YY

In the 2020 Q2 financial report teleconference, Li Xueling, founder of the happy gathering era, talked about the global layout of the happy gathering era. YY, which is more well-known by domestic users, is less important. As one of the most popular products in the era of reunion, the live broadcast product bigo live has attracted more attention. Li Xueling commented that "bigo live is expected to achieve four times the revenue of YY live in the next few years. "

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In the 2017 annual report, YY achieved excellent results in revenue growth of 41.3% year-on-year, but the share price plummeted by 12.3%. The reason is that the domestic high tension of live broadcast competition has led to a 37.68% rise in operating costs of YY. Among them, the marketing cost increased by 78.49% year on year, compared with 23.77% in 2016. At the same time, YY's net profit growth rate declined.

The change is that in March 2018, the round B financing of Huya was exclusively completed by Tencent. The focus of the gathering era began to incline to the offshore business. There's a saying on social media that after the birth of the youngest son, the eldest is out of favor.

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The aforementioned people close to YY told "science and technology innovation" that at present, YY's user payment is in a steady growth stage. This cooperation with Baidu is conducive to providing a more stable platform to attract money for anchors, and to give full play to the advantages of large platforms in the future, which is good for YY's long-term development.

Compared with the overseas business which is keen on in recent years, YY's growth rate is still slow. From the perspective of user growth rate, the Q2 financial report of huanju times in 2020 shows that as of June 30, YY's monthly live users were 41.2 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6%; overseas market was 61.1 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 41.3%. After the release of the second quarter report, JP Morgan kept its "buy" rating and raised its target price in the era of reunion. The reason is not for domestic business, but for the strong growth of overseas live broadcasting business represented by bigo live broadcasting business.

Q2 financial report shows that bigo's live broadcasting revenue accounts for more than half of the revenue of live broadcasting business in the era of reunion. In contrast, YY live broadcasting rooted in China is facing further shrinkage.

For the entire Internet entertainment industry, the national foot ban brought by the epidemic is closer to good news. QM data shows that the epidemic has increased the overall use time of mobile Internet users, and the entertainment content platform with short video and long video has benefited significantly. However, the second quarter report showed that due to the impact of Xinguan epidemic, the total number of YY paying users decreased by 2.2% to 4.1 million.

After Tencent showed great interest in the live broadcast of the game, the gathering era entered a process of "removing tiger teeth ", YY the show live broadcast business represented, and became the last position of the gathering era in the domestic market. As the whole Internet industry is calling for content, hoping to complement its own flow ecology with content, the gathering times show some indifferent attitude towards YY. Parents' love is all on the youngest son of the sea business.

02 Baidu's closed loop and breakpoint

For Baidu, the show has always been the main way for Baidu to cut into the live track. In July 2016, iqiyi released Qixiu live broadcast products, but this year, due to the Yellow issues, it stopped to make rectification; Baidu's Baidu app, Baidu Post Bar app, good-looking video, national small video, etc. all have live interfaces. Baidu's method is to connect the live broadcast column into the search scene, and use its live broadcast content to undertake some search keywords and live recommendation.

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Baidu's disadvantage is also obvious, whether live show or game live, Baidu's market share is "others」 file, lack of strength to train head anchors and influence broken circle, even if Baidu APP already has 300 million months of living drainage capacity, Lack of competitive content still appears to be" unable to ".

This is Baidu in this year by Li Yanhong personally, vigorously layout knowledge live broadcast reason

Another key factor affecting Baidu's decision is the small store. As an important chess piece of layout e-commerce live broadcast, Baidu in 2019 layout shop, and with the development of knowledge live gradually pushed open.

For Baidu, the upstream Baidu app traffic is quite competitive, and the downstream e-commerce tools and payment licenses are all in place, but the business closed-loop is in the middle of the fault. Due to the long-term lagging behind in the live broadcasting industry, the stickiness of the live broadcast users derived from the content, anchor, tonality and the above factors are all in a budding state in Baidu. With the rise of single field trading volume satellites in the sky, many platforms are making efforts to direct broadcast e-commerce, and the head effect of the whole industry is intensifying.

There is not much time left for Baidu. Baidu needs to introduce mature live broadcast ecology as soon as possible to splice this breakpoint.

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This entry point is very bad for Baidu, Tencent is matching Penguin, Douyu and Tiger teeth merge to complete the game live field integration, there is no reason not to be strangled by Tencent in the cradle. The fast-handed family carrier is the product of special community environment and is difficult to refer to the outside world. Other live broadcast platforms such as B stations, basically located in the transformation of internal traffic, do not have the ability to break the circle, the acquisition is of little significance.

Interestingly, the most enlightening thing for Baidu is that it is dead on the head byte. Not only Baidu, for the subsequent players who intend to cut into the live e-commerce track, the byte beating method has benchmarking significance.

Shake sound cut into the way of live e-commerce, is Qianjin City horse bone, all the resources to hold Luo Yonghao debut. Through the April Fool's Day campaign, the quiver creatively answers a number of questions, that is, how to complete the transformation of entertainment user's mind to paid user's mind, how to create hot spots, and how to create user's e-commerce mental education to a platform, and so on. Although Lao Luo's own sales capacity is limited, but the topic and attention, still let Lao Luo get 110 million sales volume, at the same time complete the shaking sound with the goods mental violence circle.

At present, the environment of e-commerce live broadcast is sailing against the current, not advancing or retreating. For Baidu, the platform can have no head with goods live, but can not have a head anchor; can not have e-commerce live user mind, but can not live user mind. Once let go, it means completely losing the opportunity to turn over. And seizing the show anchor from the YY means continuing the first breakpoint of the business closed loop

03 show and double edged sword

The problem is that live shows are not the cutting-edge business model in the industry. Before the first mock exam, it was once a game of live broadcast, and became the Gemini star of the direct broadcast industry. After 2018, investors in all markets lowered the growth expectation of this model, whether in US stocks or in Hong Kong stocks.

As of October 23, the U.S. stock market closed on October 23. The PE (price earnings ratio) of happy gathering times was 6.39 times, while that of Momo was 7.61 times higher. In Hong Kong stock market, the price earnings ratio of Yingke is 13.93 times, and that of Tiange interaction is 8.19 times. In the A-share market, this is the low P / E ratio commonly seen in large financial institutions, which shows that although the live show still provides YY and Momo with a good profit level, investors are not optimistic about the future growth prospects of the industry.

The main reason is, of course, the invasion of new forces such as Kuai and Shuo. Another reason is that the business model of live show broadcasting is hard to call healthy.

UGC video was once popular in the PC era, when a 30-minute game video was hot, not losing today's popular short video. But video producers are generally difficult to get high returns, until individuals IP video individuals IP Taobao store business model rose, creators really master the flow of cash.

The same goes for live shows.

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The initial appearance of live broadcasting on the show depended on beauty and talent. When the content of early live broadcasting was scarce, it did have a relatively good payment basis. Once the more mature mode of e-commerce live broadcasting rises, the anchor's mantra changes from "brush up" to "buy it", which means that a more moderate and sustainable business model has been formed.

In the business model of intergenerational differences, the show live broadcast of the trend has been unstoppable. On social media, you can see a lot about the show live to induce Tuhao to play reward skills sharing. And shake sound, Taobao live broadcast is different, the show live broadcast reward anchor Tuhao, there are a large number of guild and even anchor itself. The whole model is beginning to become closed and rigid, and the ability to attract new active users is becoming worse. Although the industry's operating profits are generally positive, but the decline is likely to be a matter of time.

As a matter of fact, long before Baidu shot, YY have tried to do live delivery channel, category for friendly male Tuhao style of play. After access to Baidu, this is likely to become Baidu's next research direction

Baidu is making a big gamble. The bet is $4 billion. The way to gamble is to run a race to see if it is faster for the show live broadcast to bring down the platform, or for Baidu to graft the live broadcasting e-commerce closed-loop faster. This is a double-edged sword with blood. The blade is hung with the blood of many players, such as YY, Momo, Yingke, Tiange interaction, etc. from the perspective of relevant sources, baidu may not turn back.

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