Researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released aNew research, warning that the actual number of covid-19 cases in the United States may be significantly higher than reported.Researchers at the agency used probabilistic multiplier models and available data on infections to determine the potential true number of cases.
The United States has been trying to provide adequate covid-19 testing for the population throughout the pandemic, but it is still not available or widely used in many states. This resulted in a large number of people most likely to be infected with the new coronavirus, which was not officially diagnosed and therefore not included in the official statistics.
The new study by CDC scientists used models based on known data to determine the number of potentially unreported cases, and found that only one out of every 7.1 cases of non hospitalized covid-19 reported in the United States may have been identified. When hospitalization due to covid-19 was involved, only one out of every 2.5 inpatient infections was officially reported.
According to the study, the number of covid-19 cases officially reported in the United States was about 53 million as of the end of September, and the actual number may be close to 100 million by now.
The data used in the model stopped at the end of September, which means that nearly two months of infection has not been included. Despite public health recommendations for home isolation, the number of covid-19 cases is expected to surge in the coming weeks due to holiday travel.
The CDC study points out that these are only preliminary estimates, but their aim is to highlight the burden of the disease on the health care system and society as a whole. Using such a model can help experts determine where to allocate resources and develop mitigation plans to curb the spread of the disease.