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Tesla and BBA, there must be a war

via:博客园     time:2021/1/7 10:18:21     readed:124


By Zhou Xiongfei

Source: Online insight (ID: lxinsight)

On New Year's day, Tesla dropped a heavy bomb on the new energy vehicle industry.

At the same time as the launch of the model, there was a price reduction. Among them, the starting price of model Y's long-term version has decreased by 148100 yuan compared with 488000 yuan before, and the high-performance version of model Y's performance has even decreased by 165100 yuan compared with 535000 yuan before.


Domestic model y on sale, tuyuan Tesla official micro

Compared with Xiaopeng's self-confidence, Weilai has been more worried these days.

In the view of the industry, although the price reduction of domestic model y will bring some impact on the domestic new energy market, it is only a short-term impact. In contrast, traditional fuel vehicle brands such as BMW, Mercedes Benz and Audi will be more impacted.

At the same time, in terms of price, endurance, brand power and intelligence, the electric vehicles produced by the brand of fuel vehicles are even more unable to compete with Tesla's domestic model y.

It is conceivable that in the future, Tesla will kill all sides in the traditional fuel vehicle market.

However, Tesla's ambition is more than that.


In the past New Year's holiday, in addition to many 5A scenic spots, Tesla experience center also presents a sea of people.


Tesla responded that its official website was jammed. Tuyuan Tesla customer support

In fact, this is not Tesla's first price cut on domestic models.

According to Tesla's official website, the domestic model y long-range version has a range of 594 kilometers and a speed of 5.1 seconds; the high-performance version has a range of 480 kilometers and a speed of 3.7 seconds. In terms of intelligence, the two models also have OTA upgrade and automatic driving assistance system.

In addition, in terms of maximum speed and endurance, Weilai and Weilai do not have an advantage.

According to the official website of Weilai, the maximum speed of the domestic model y is 217km / h and the driving range is 594km, while the maximum speed of ES6 and ec6 is 200km / h and the driving range is 420km and 430km respectively. The range of model y is much higher than that of the latter two models.


Compare Tesla with ecdo6 and esdo6

Although the price of these two models is more than RMB 400000-80000 yuan, the price of these two models is higher than that of the previous ones.

In contrast, model y is a better choice.

In addition to Weilai, the main products are SUV's ideal and Xiaopeng, which are also included in the strike range of domestic model y. But compared with Wei Lai, ideal and Xiao Peng are more calm.

This is related to the differentiated positioning of Xiaopeng automobile. Although Xiaopeng G3 belongs to SUV, the pricing of 140000-190000 just opens up the price gap with model y.

The ideal one of ideal belongs to SUV, and the price of 328000 is very close to that of domestic model y. however, the former uses the extended range power mode, which is also different from the model y pure electric mode.


Tesla Model y (middle), Xiaopeng P7 (right), ideal one

At the beginning of this year, Weilai, Xiaopeng and ideal all announced the sales results of last year.

According to the data released by the three companies, in 2020, Weilai delivered 43728 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 112.6%; Xiaopeng delivered 27041 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 112%. In 2020, ideal one will deliver 32624 vehicles in total.


The end of the fuel truck?

With the launch of domestic model y, Musk's attitude towards fuel vehicles has become the group will within Tesla.


Domestic model y, tuyuan Tesla official website

Looking at the global luxury car market, China has become the largest luxury car market in the world. According to the data of Foresight Research Institute, in the regional distribution of global luxury car sales in 2019, China occupies the first place with 31%. Let's look at the domestic luxury car market. The three brands of BBA have been in the top three.

According to the data of cnr.com, in the first half of 2020, Mercedes Benz occupied the first place in the domestic luxury car sales list with the cumulative sales volume of 339800 units, while BMW and Audi ranked second and third respectively with the cumulative sales volume of 324500 units and 3012000 units. According to statistics, BBA three brands account for 66.7% of the domestic market share.

In terms of the luxury car market of 300000-400000 yuan, BMW owns the BMW X3, with the official price of 389800-479800 yuan, while Audi and Mercedes Benz in this price range are Audi q5l and Mercedes Benz GLC, with the price of 387800-498000 yuan and 397800-587800 yuan respectively.

A closer look shows that these three models are all medium-sized SUVs, which are the same as the domestic model y. the latter is also a high-end electric SUV. Therefore, there must be a battle between model y and these three models.

It can not be ignored that model y has great advantages. It not only has the intelligence that these fuel vehicles don't have, but also has the price of 339000 yuan, which is far lower than the three models.

In addition to these, model y, as a new energy vehicle, can also be exempted from paying 10% vehicle purchase tax. It can be imagined that in the SUV market with the same price, model y, which can enjoy better high-end and intelligent experience at a lower price, will pose a huge threat to BBA's fuel vehicles.

According to reports, many of Tesla's car owners prefer to buy things from BBA or BBA brands. At the same time, they also prefer to buy things from BBA or BBA brands.


A Tesla experience center in China is overcrowded after the domestic model y is launched. Tuyuan interviewees

In order to cope with such risks, traditional fuel vehicle brands such as BMW, Mercedes Benz and Audi are also in the field of new energy vehicles.

In November 2019, Mercedes Benz launched its first medium-sized electric SUV, Mercedes Benz EQC, in the domestic market. Similarly, Audi also launched its first electric SUV, Audi e-tron, in the same month. BMW launched its sux3 in November last year.

However, these three new energy models are still medium-sized SUVs, but in terms of price, BMW ix3 and Mercedes Benz EQC are 40000-50000 more expensive than the same level of fuel vehicles, and Audi e-tron is even 200000 more expensive than the same level of Audi q5l. This means that these models have no price advantage over model y, which is a medium-sized electric SUV.

According to the online travel statistics of official websites, the driving range of BMW ix3 is 500km, Audi e-tron is 470km, and Mercedes Benz EQC is only 415km. In contrast, model y has a range of 594km.

In addition to price and endurance, intelligence has also become a factor that consumers pay special attention to when they choose electric vehicles, and at this point, BBA's electric vehicles are also in decline.

OTA (over the air) is the abbreviation of online upgrade. In short, it is to improve the overall performance of electric vehicles like smart phones through regular software updates. As a result, this function has become a crucial function of intelligent vehicle.

However, according to auto home data, BBA's three electric vehicles do not have this function. In the industry, the lack of this function of electric vehicles and ordinary fuel vehicles, in addition to the power mode, there is no difference.


Performance comparison between domestic model y and BBA electric vehicles

Because of this, BBA's three electric vehicles have little voice in the domestic new energy vehicle market.

According to the data of the passenger Association, since the launch of Mercedes Benz EQC, only 1211 vehicles have been sold as of July last year; since the launch of Audi e-tron, only 859 vehicles have been sold as of June last year. As a latecomer, BMW's ix3 has only sold 811 cars since it was put on sale in November last year.

In fact, Tesla has an absolute advantage.

According to the "global new energy vehicle sales ranking in the first half of 2020" released by EV sales, Tesla ranks first with 179050 vehicles, while BMW, Audi and Mercedes Benz are all behind Tesla. Among them, BMW is the closest to Tesla with 58883 vehicles, but they are almost three times as many.

In the domestic market, the online travel statistics of the new energy car sales data released by the passenger association from February to November last year. In the 10 months' data, only BMW's 5-series PHEV entered the top 10 list, while Mercedes Benz and Audi did not.

Among them, there is a big gap between BMW and Tesla. Even in November last year, the gap between Tesla Model 3 and BMW 5 Series PHEV was 10 times.

Although the current performance of model y is still unknown, it is certain that with the strong entry of domestic model y into the domestic new energy SUV market, Tesla's threat to BBA and other traditional car companies will be even stronger, and the situation of the latter's new energy models will be even more precarious.


How ambitious is Tesla?

With the gradual increase of mass production scale of domestic model y and model 3, the share rate of such parts will continue to increase, and the vehicle cost will be reduced.


Tesla Model 3 and model y

According to the data of China Federation of passenger transport, in the first November of 2020, Tesla's domestic model 3 sales volume was 111600 vehicles, with which Tesla occupied 12% of the whole domestic new energy market.

With the domestic model y open and after-sales, Tesla's sales in the domestic market will go up to a higher level in the future.

The fundamental purpose of Tesla's further price reduction is to further seize the market share. The market share here is not limited to the new energy automobile industry, but to seize the whole automobile market including fuel vehicles.

It is undeniable that this has become a trend.

According to Puyin international, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China will reach 20% in 2025, 40% in 2030 and 50% in 2035, that is, the compound growth rate in the next 15 years will reach 11%.


Figure of China's new energy vehicle penetration rate from 2025 to 2035, data from Puyin international, online travel map

After nibbling the traditional fuel vehicle market step by step, the commercialization of new energy vehicle related industries will be expanded, which is exactly the ambition of musk and Tesla.

According to media reports, Tesla will have plans to launch an app store, a platform similar to Apple's app store. This is another commercial attempt of Tesla since it opened up that car owners can buy automatic driving and other software. Previously, car owners can buy auxiliary driving function, fully automatic driving function, acceleration performance improvement and other high-end functions in Tesla app.

As car owners buy software, musk also tries to further increase the price of software. Take the function of autopilot as an example. In November last year, musk disclosed to the media that he would increase the price of autopilot by another $1000. Before that, the software has gradually increased from the earliest $5000 to $7000.

Guohai Securities also pointed out earlier that Tesla is expected to build the world's largest automotive software ecosystem. If the plan of Tesla app store can be implemented, it is expected that Tesla will get $3.8 billion from software in 2025.

In addition to selling software, power batteries have become another good business for Tesla.

This means that Tesla will change from a power battery customer to a real competitor in two to three years.

In the view of the industry, when Tesla really began to develop its own batteries and export them, it posed a huge threat to the share of power battery manufacturers such as LG Chemical and Panasonic. In order to achieve this as soon as possible, Tesla has already started the layout of self-development of power batteries.

According to Tesla's public information, at present, Tesla has a super battery factory in Nevada, which has a capacity of 20gwh, and the single line output capacity has been increased seven times. Last December, Tesla also announced that it would build a power battery plant in Germany and Indonesia.


Tesla Nevada battery super factory

According to the plan, Tesla will produce 100GWh power battery by 2022, and the number will rise to 3twh (1twh = 1000gwh) by 2030.

But the adventurer musk, in order to realize his ambition, may not worry about this.

(at the request of the interviewee, Liu Kai is a pseudonym.)

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