By sun Shi of Tencent Technology
Editor: Shen Chong of Tencent Technology
On the evening of February 22, Huawei released the mate x2 mobile phone. A week before the press conference, a Huawei mobile phone supply chain company said that it had gradually supplied parts to China for P50 series mobile phones, but received fewer orders than in previous years. It can be seen that Huawei's chip crisis has not been alleviated.
The US government's ban on Huawei has been in effect for nearly half a year, and the impact on Huawei's mobile phones is obvious. According to IDC, Huawei's shipment volume fell 42.4% in the fourth quarter, falling to the fifth place.
This issue of "personal experience" focuses on three Huawei mobile phone sellers, revealing their experience of selling Huawei mobile phones in the past year. At the beginning of last year, why Huawei mate 40 was fired for tens of thousands of yuan, whether high price folding screen mobile phones will generate huge profits, and the impact of the ban on their business are their real stories
Dictator: Mr. D
Profile: a mobile phone retailer in a first tier city, mainly engaged in Huawei and apple
The profit from Huawei is less, but it's all made up by apple
I feel that the ban has an impact on Huawei's mobile phones. In September 2020, the number of goods we receive has gradually decreased.
My store is Huawei's national representative. If my store sells 100 machines a week, Huawei's national representative will replenish 100 machines for me. My actual inventory may still be 300 or 400 machines. He will keep my inventory for about 20 days. That is to say, if Huawei stops supplying goods to me from today, the inventory of my store can still be sold for 20 days.
However, since September, Huawei's replenishment has not been in accordance with the past 20 day cycle, because all the goods are beginning to be tight, and the inventory can be maintained for about 15 days. Now it can only maintain the inventory for one week.
Maybe many people don't understand why the price of Huawei mate 40, especially the price of the Porsche version, has been rising all the time last year. Let me use Maotai as an example to explain that the dealers of Maotai must sell Maotai according to the price on the official website, but most people can't buy Maotai for 1499 yuan. Generally, they may need to increase the price by about 1000 yuan.
Why can't I get 1499 yuan? When you go to the exclusive store in Maotai, the shop assistant tells you that they are out of stock. In fact, they have goods, but they will not sell them to you. They will sell them in other ways and channels, and the price is far more than 1499 yuan.
Similarly, the same is true for Huawei's popular models. For example, Huawei mate 40 Porsche, which costs 11999 yuan on its official website, has been sold for 20000 yuan or 30000 yuan on the market. Will dealers sell it to consumers at the official website price? Maybe a lot of people are not consumers. They are scalpers. If they buy it at the official website price, they can sell it for 20000 yuan in a twinkling of an eye, making 10000 yuan net.
But when customers go to the experience store to ask for the price, the store tells the consumers 11999 yuan, but it's out of stock at present. Like Maotai store, the shop assistant will turn this machine into the maximum profit by other means.
The selling price must be higher than the official website price, just like the stock market. For example, when the price of mate 40 for Porsche reaches 22000 on the market, I will sell it for 21000 or 21000. If the market price falls to 21000 the next day, I will go out for 20000.
However, no matter how the market price goes down, the profit of the dealers can bear it, because they take the goods from Huawei, which has a gross profit of about 17 points. It's just a matter of earning more or less. As for people who buy mobile phones from dealers, they don't care how much they can earn. If they have the ability, they can earn 10000 yuan, but if they don't have the ability, they may have to pay for it.
When mate40 was released in October last year, the price of Huaqiang North had to change several times a day. In extreme cases, the price might change once every half an hour. This situation does exist.
Because the goods are in the hands of dealers like us, it's our problem whether the goods can be delivered or not. Before I go out, if you have a demand, you are a couple store, you come to me, I'm sure I need to know the price of the market at that time.
For example, if you come to a mate 40, I know that the price is 18000 yuan. I'll give you 200-300 yuan of profit and sell it to you for 17800 yuan. Would you like to take it? You say you can pick up, you can sell 19000, 20000, that's your business.
Suppose this is what happened at noon. In the evening, I find that the market price may have been up to 20000 yuan. So if you ask me for the goods again, I may have to sell them to you for 19700 yuan.
However, the purchase price of the dealers is the same, that is, the price given by Huawei, unless Huawei adjusts the price. So the higher the market speculation, the greater the profit value of dealers.
I will not deliberately hoard goods, or to see the market. I need to know two pieces of information. The first is to look at the market. The second is to know the rhythm of Huawei's distribution and the arrival of goods, and then make a forecast based on the inventory.
For example, Huawei said that next week there will be a large number of Porsches, for example, thousands of them, so I'll rush to sell them while the price is high. Now I may earn 8000. Next week Huawei will release the goods. I may earn 5000 or even 3000. If Huawei says that it may deliver hundreds of sets next week, which is in short demand, then I may not sell them now, and I will sell them next week.
Like mate x2 released on February 22, we predict that the price will definitely rise, but we don't have any information about P50, but we predict that it may become an out of print unicorn. We expect that there will be a rush to buy, but it won't be too extreme.
Because users like mate and P series belong to high consumption groups. If he can buy Huawei mate or P for $89000 or $10000, he can buy apple for $89000 or $10000. This wave of people may have bought more than the official website price on mate 40. It's a round of harvest. When the P50 comes out again, no matter how to publicize it, they may not consider buying it. This is our prediction.
Last year, Huawei's mobile phone inventory began to decrease, which still had an impact on my profits. In the past month, for example, I sold 3000 sets, and my gross profit was nearly 2 million. But now I've only been given more than 2000 and more than 1000 units a month, so I'm sure the gross profit is less.
Although the profit value of individual mobile phones of some models is increasing, it can not offset the overall loss of the number. Because the authorized experience shop runs the volume of the model, is not a premium to sell, or to sell according to the official website price. Only a small number of high-end models, such as the Porsche version, I sell them by myself, and I will not throw them out with the price on the official website. However, for other mate 40 series, we have to sell them at the regular price in the store.
Another feeling is that more people bought Apple last year because they couldn't buy Huawei mate 40. If a person can spend 10000 yuan to buy a mobile phone, when he can't buy Huawei's high-end models, he will naturally think of changing to apple, because he focuses on quality. He won't buy millet, glory or ov, he will only choose apple.
So on the whole, the pick-up volume has decreased by 10% to 15% on average compared with the previous years, and the profit from Huawei has decreased, but the decline has been made up by Apple's sales, including the Spring Festival, when Apple sold very well.
So no matter how Huawei is punished, even if it doesn't produce P50 or mate 50, my business won't be affected too much. If it's a big deal, I'll focus on apple.
Dictator: Mr. Z
Profile: Zhongguancun mobile phone seller, main Huawei, apple
No matter how high the price of Huawei folding screen is, we can earn hundreds of yuan at most
At the beginning of 2020, when P40 was just released, it was good that the impact of the ban had not been highlighted. However, since mate 40, the price of our goods was relatively high, and there were not too many goods.
Because we can't purchase goods directly from Huawei's national representative, but from other high-level distributors. Our purchase price has already exceeded Huawei's official website price. Up to now, the price of mate 40 Pro is higher than the official website price, so we have to sell it higher than the official website price.
In the early stage of P40, it's a little hard to buy, but it's not as serious as mate 40, and the premium is not so high. In the early days, other mid-range and low-end models were able to get goods at prices lower than those on the official website. However, at present, these low-end models can't get goods at prices on the official website. There are very few products. Before, there were customers who asked for more than 1000 yuan of mobile phones, but basically they couldn't find them.
When we ask for goods from agents, for example, 10000 units, they make it very clear that there are not so many. There may be 1000 units or hundreds of units left, and at the same time, we have to increase the price. It is impossible to sell them to you according to the original price, or according to the official price.
We have also experienced the situation that mate 40 had to change its price several times a day last year. Sometimes it's normal to change its price three or four times a day. For example, if a customer asks for a price now, and I'm done, the price may change in an hour or half an hour.
But we can't help it. It's not that we want to raise the price intentionally, but the source of our purchase. They want to change the price. In the early days, it may change once, that is, a price increase of several hundred yuan. Later, it gradually stabilized at 50-100 yuan.
However, the price of mate 40 series, including the Porsche version, is not so much doubled. It is said that the mobile phones that have been fired for tens of thousands of times are mainly Huawei folding screens last year, which sold more than 80000 at the highest time, because this model is really scarce.
We don't make too much money for each mobile phone. Even if it's a few hundred yuan, it's the limit. For example, Huawei mate x folding screen mobile phone may sell for 70000 yuan, and the purchase price may be more than 60000 yuan or 70000 yuan. The profit at our level is about 500 yuan. The high-level dealers take away the big profits, and we at our level just drink some soup. If it's not a scarce model, and it's not so profitable, it might be tens of yuan.
Some customers will protest with us that the price is always changing, but we will explain how much the current price is, and make a prediction, tell him that the price may be reduced in a few days, let him have more time and so on. Later, the customers also understood it, because it was really out of stock. We all knew the truth that scarcity is more expensive.
For the P50 this year, we think the price will change again, but we will not hoard too much, because we are also worried that the price will fall. The demand in the early stage will be very large, but the demand in the later stage will not be so large, and the price will go down gradually. So I won't press so many products. It's a lot if I can get more than ten at a time.
There is still demand for Huawei in the market, so although the ban will affect our business, it has little impact. Customers can understand the price increase, so they don't worry about sales. Although they sell less, the price of each mobile phone is also high.
Dictator: Mr. W
Profile: a mobile phone dealer in a third tier city
Regardless of the middle, high and low end, Huawei's mobile phones are now all at a premium
If we feel the impact of the US government's ban, it is out of stock and rising prices. Especially after the national day, it is more and more difficult for us to purchase goods, and the price is also rising slowly.
For some of Huawei's low-end models, such as Nova series and Changxiang series, I can get the products directly from Huawei's guodai, which is lower than the official website price. However, for P series and mate series, our dealers at this level can't get the products directly from guodai. They can only find a way from more advanced dealers. Generally speaking, they have to pay 500-600 yuan more than the official website price to get the products.
For some more popular models, such as the mate 40 Porsche version, we have to pay 3000 yuan more than the official website to get the goods. Even now, we still need 2000 yuan more, at least 1000 yuan more.
If we take the goods at this price, our profit is very low, because it's a premium of several thousand yuan. Most of the customers who can come to buy them are regular customers, and they use the Porsche mobile phone for a long time. In order to maintain this customer base, we will certainly not increase the price too high. The limit is to increase the price by three or four hundred yuan, so we don't make much money. The main profit is our upper level dealers.
When mate XS first came out last year, it did get 70, 000 yuan, but it was rare. In the later period, it was mainly 30, 000 yuan to 40, 000 yuan. There was such a wave of market at that time.
For this kind of machine, which is already a sky high price, we only add a thousand and eight hundred yuan, and the buyer also buys it to give it away. Only those who really buy their own mobile phones will care about the price. If they buy 30000 or 40000 mobile phones, the probability of using them is relatively small. Basically, they give away.
Other models, even high-end models, such as mate 40 Pro 256gb, offer 6999 yuan on the official website. Our receiving price is 7100-7200 yuan, and we can sell it for 7300 yuan at most,
Now it's not just the premium of mate and P series, it can be said that all Huawei products are at a premium. For example, the official website price of Huawei imagination 20se and 4G version is 1499 yuan. Now the selling price of our side is more than 1700 yuan, and the wholesale price of the channel is 200 yuan higher than the official website price.
Low level dealers like us don't dare to stock in their hands, because I'm not a first-hand product. Originally, the price I took was high, so I could only take one and prepare two at most, because the price might drop the next day, and the price fluctuation of high-end machines is very obvious.
From last year to now, my profit is declining, because the goods are really few. My store is in the core business district, and there are millet, vivo and oppo nearby. Customers come to our store and ask a few times, but they say they are out of stock, so they may consider buying millet, vivo and oppo.
I have also opened an apple store, but because I am in a third tier city, there are fewer people who buy apple. So unlike a first tier city, apple can be used to make up for Huawei's losses, but I can't.