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Tesla's 10-year "carbon selling" makes us $4 billion. Can Weilai Xiaopeng become rich by selling carbon

via:博客园     time:2021/4/3 10:46:49     readed:192

orgsrc=//img2020.cnblogs.com/news/66372/202104/66372-20210403092649995-1734687660.jpg

By Qian Yiyun

Source: it times (ID: vittimes)

30 seconds fast reading

1. Today, it is rumored that FAW Volkswagen will buy carbon emission points from Tesla at 3000 yuan per point. According to the new energy vehicle points data released by it times in 2019, Tesla can get about five carbon points by selling a new energy vehicle in China.

In October last year, the "energy saving and new energy vehicle technology roadmap 2.0" was officially released under the guidance of the Ministry of industry and information technology, which proposed that the total carbon emissions of the automobile industry should be ahead of the national carbon emissions, and promised to reach the peak ahead of time around 2028, and the total emissions will drop by more than 20% compared with the peak by 2035. By 2035, the annual sales volume of energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles will each account for 50%, and the automotive industry will realize the transformation of electrification.

In January this year, Volkswagen faced a fine of more than 100 million euros for failing to meet the EU's 2020 target for carbon dioxide emissions from passenger cars.

Whether FAW-VW will buy carbon emission points from Tesla depends on whether its China points will be in deficit in 2020. Jia Xinguang, executive director of China Automobile Circulation Association, said that although FAW Volkswagen's CAFC negative points reached 550000 in 2019, its positive points in 2017 and 2018 were 620000 and 180000, which can basically offset the deficit in 2019.

01

Europe and the United States: not enough points, fine to make up

According to the annual report, Tesla made a total profit of US $1.58 billion by selling regulatory credits including zero emission vehicle (ZEV) credits in 2020, a substantial increase of US $986 million over 2019. This huge revenue comes from various points trading in Tesla's auto sales market, including ZEV points trading in 12 states of the United States and carbon emission points trading in the European Union.

In fact, since 2010, Tesla has made a total profit of more than $4 billion by selling carbon emission credits to auto companies. Traditional auto companies such as Fiat Chrysler, GM, Ford, Honda and Volkswagen have made deals with Tesla. According to foreign media reports, in 2019, GM and Fiat Chrysler purchased hundreds of millions of dollars of carbon credits from Tesla.

特斯拉

Tesla's carbon emission points revenue from 2011 to 2018

Why does Tesla have so many points to sell? It depends on the strict carbon emission management system of the automobile industry in the United States and the European Union.

California zero emission vehicle Act (ZEV) is a law that requires car companies to achieve certain zero emission points. It was implemented in California in 2009 and adopted by 11 other states.

图源:网络

Source: Internet

It determines the proportion of zero emission vehicle points of an automobile enterprise every year, which is multiplied by the total sales volume of the automobile factory, and calculates the zero emission vehicle points that the automobile factory should achieve in this year. The enterprises that fail to achieve the points will be punished according to US $5000 per point, while the enterprises with excess points can sell the points. Enterprises can fulfill the contract by producing zero emission vehicles or purchasing credits from other enterprises.

This means that the traditional car companies will consume points for every car they produce, while Tesla will get points for every electric car they produce. In the long run, they will accumulate huge points.

orgsrc=//img2020.cnblogs.com/news/66372/202104/66372-20210403092649988-1219455106.png

A Tesla Model y with a mileage of 441.91 km can get up to 4.91 points

Tesla's single car price is estimated to be close to US $33091 in ZEV points. In addition, the price of a model car is about US $4491 in ZEV points.

In January this year, Volkswagen faced a fine of more than 100 million euros for failing to meet the EU's 2020 target for carbon dioxide emissions from passenger cars.

图源:网络

Source: Internet

As a result, the car companies with excessive carbon emissions launched a fierce competition for points. In 2020, Honda joined the alliance between Fiat Chrysler and Tesla to buy its carbon emission points in Europe.

02

China: double points system implemented

图源:IT

Photo source: it times

In 2017, the measures for parallel management of average fuel consumption and new energy vehicle points of passenger car enterprises (hereinafter referred to as the double points Policy) was issued. Unlike the ZEV act, which only manages ZEV points, the double points policy implements parallel management of fuel consumption points (CAFC points) and new energy vehicle points (nev points).

In CAFC integral, if the fuel consumption is less than the standard value, it is positive integral, otherwise it is negative integral;

In nev integral, if the number of new energy vehicles produced is greater than the standard value, it will accumulate positive integral, otherwise it will accumulate negative integral.

In 2020, the double points policy has been revised and officially implemented from January 1, 2021.

Under the new deal, the calculation method of pure electric vehicle integral weakens the weight of driving range, and becomes a comprehensive consideration of vehicle driving range level, vehicle power consumption level and battery energy density.

The carrying forward time of nev positive points is extended from one year to three years. Meanwhile, the definition of affiliated enterprise is widened, and CAFC points are allowed to be transferred between joint ventures under the same foreign parent company and between domestic automobile enterprises and authorized import supply enterprises corresponding to their overseas production enterprises.

According to the new deal, there are three application ways of points: carry forward, transfer and transaction, and different points have different corresponding ways.

CAFC positive points can be carried forward or transferred among affiliated enterprises; nev positive points can be freely traded and carried forward according to regulations. The two kinds of negative integral should be compensated to zero. CAFC negative points can be offset by CAFC positive points carried forward or transferred by the enterprise, nev positive points generated by the enterprise, or nev positive points purchased by the enterprise; nev negative points can be compensated by nev positive points of the following year according to regulations.

图源:中泰证券

Photo source: Zhongtai securities

In other words, only nev positive points can be freely traded in the market. According to the regulations, if a car company purchases nev positive points, it can only use them in the current year and can not trade again.

The double points policy is considered by the industry as a new incentive policy for new energy vehicles after the decline of subsidies.

In 2020, the Ministry of industry and information technology announced the double points of 119 domestic automobile enterprises and 27 imported automobile enterprises.

"Average fuel consumption and new energy vehicle points of passenger car enterprises in 2019" shows that:

In 2019, there are 86 CAFC enterprises with negative points, among which the self owned brand automobile enterprises are the best, the joint venture automobile enterprises are the worst, BYD is the first in the points list, Tesla (Beijing) is in the top 10, FAW Volkswagen, SAIC GM and Beijing Hyundai are at the bottom. Tianjin FAW Toyota relies on the mass production of hybrid corolla, the CAFC score is 268164, but the nev score is as high as - 37927.

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图源:中国汽车工业信息网

Source: China Automotive Industry Information Network

According to the statistics, as of the end of 2019, the sales volume of new energy vehicles such as Tesla's domestic vehicles, Weilai, Xiaopeng and ideal will only rise sharply in 2020, so they are not on the list.

03

Domestic nev scores tripled a year

图源:Unsplash

Source: unsplash

However, although the double points policy encourages nev positive points trading, nev points trading unit price is too low for a long time, which has become the biggest bottleneck restricting China's automobile enterprises' carbon emissions trading.

According to the analysis of some people in the industry, in the early stage, due to the lack of judgment on the reaction of car companies, only the mileage was used as the basis for the calculation of single car points, resulting in the rapid increase of single car points, resulting in a lot of waste of points, the transaction price of points kept falling, and the transaction unit price was only a few hundred yuan. However, the price of American ZEV points is 12-22 times that of Chinese nev points, and the difference of points value is huge.

But in the new deal, nev positive points trading price rise seems to become an inevitable trend.

Under the new version of double points, pure electric vehicles with the same mileage can get less points. Taking the 400 km range of pure electric vehicle as an example, on the premise that all the coefficients are adjusted to 1, the score is reduced from 5.6 to 2.64, the score of plug-in hybrid vehicle is reduced from 2 to 1.6, and the score of fuel cell is also reduced by half.

新版双积分计算方法,图源:东吴证券

New double integral calculation method, source: Soochow securities

According to the analysis of professionals, the method reduces the supply of positive points, and the reduction of positive points will lead to the increase of points price. Automobile enterprises should pay more attention to the situation of double points reaching the standard, and increase the production proportion of nev.

At the end of last year, Li Jinyong, executive chairman of Auto Dealers Association of all China Federation of industry and Commerce and chairman of new energy vehicle special committee, said at the second new energy vehicle commercialization conference of electric vehicle Observer:

In this way, nev points have increased more than three times.

Although traditional car companies are also transforming to new energy vehicles, it will take a long time after all. A few months ago, General Motors announced that it would completely stop production of fuel models in 2035, and Volkswagen announced that it would gradually stop production of internal combustion engine models in 2040. Pure electric vehicles still have considerable advantages.

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