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After changing the battery, is Tesla Model y going to start killing?

via:驱动之家     time:2021/7/9 1:35:25     readed:486

The cheaper Tesla is coming again.

On July 8, Tesla's official microblog said that the domestic Tesla Model y had been officially launched at a price of 276000 yuan. Compared with the previous long-term model y, it decreased by 71900 yuan.The main reason for the price difference between the standard and long-term versions is the difference in batteries. According to a person close to Ningde era, the standard model y launched today is equipped with lithium iron phosphate battery of Ningde era.

After the battery is replaced, the range of the standard model y is 525km, and the longer one is reduced by 69km. This mileage data is more prominent in the vehicles equipped with LiFePO4 batteries.

Another key message is that, following the domestic model 3, model y has also entered the market of less than 300000 yuan. 300000 yuan is a key point of automobile consumption, and the consumers with a budget of less than 300000 yuan are the real main force of car purchase. In addition, the range of 150000-300000 yuan is also the most competitive range for domestic new energy vehicle enterprises.

For car buyers and competitors, model y at this price is a bomb. According to Tesla officials, the standard model y will be delivered as soon as August.

How much more can Tesla drop?

Since its localization, price reduction has been the main theme of Tesla.

In the past year or so, Tesla has reduced its price several times, and the subsidized price of Tesla Model 3 once dropped to within 250000 yuan.

In fact, under the dual influence of the increase of production scale and the degree of localization of parts, price reduction is inevitable. Frequent price cuts also enable Tesla to quickly occupy the domestic market. But this time, the main reason for the price decline of model y is that the battery has been replaced.

Previously, the domestic Tesla Model 3 was also replaced with lithium iron phosphate battery from ternary lithium battery: after the battery replacement, the price of domestic model 3 standard life upgrade and long life rear wheel drive decreased by about 40000-50000 yuan.

At present, the price of LiFePO4 battery is relatively high, and the price of nickel ternary lithium battery is about 20% cheaper. Although LiFePO4 is inferior in energy density, it has many advantages in safety and service life.

In addition, with the continuous expansion of LiFePO4 battery capacity, the cost of LiFePO4 battery will be further reduced. This means that there is still room for the cost of the standard life model y with LiFePO4 batteries to drop.

It is also in line with Tesla's expansion strategy to carry cheaper iron lithium batteries on Model 3 and model y models.

With the gradual decline of new energy subsidies, models equipped with lithium-ion batteries can no longer get ultra-high subsidies, which is forcing car companies like Tesla to choose batteries with lower costs.

On the other hand, due to the price fluctuation of rare raw materials such as nickel and cobalt, the risk of controlling the cost of lithium-ion battery is also rising. The above understanding close to Ningde times also said that if the raw materials of ternary lithium battery continue to rise in the second half of the year, Ningde times and other enterprises will also consider increasing the price of ternary lithium battery.

In the increasingly fierce market competition, Tesla's choice of LiFePO4 is reasonable.

As a matter of fact, lithium iron phosphate is not only Tesla's choice, but also other auto companies think so. Last year, Xiaopeng launched the lithium iron phosphate version of Xiaopeng P7, and there are rumors in the market that Weilai will consider carrying lithium iron phosphate batteries on the model.

A more obvious sign is that the market share of LiFePO4 has caught up with that of Li ion batteries. According to the data of China Automobile Association, in May this year, the output of ternary battery was 5.0gwh, accounting for 36.2% of the total output, with a year-on-year increase of 62.9% and a month on month decrease of 25.4%; The output of LiFePO4 battery was 8.8gwh, accounting for 63.6% of the total output, with a year-on-year growth of 317.3% and a month on month growth of 41.6%.

When the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is low, it is still faced with geeks and other price insensitive groups. But in the mass consumer, the importance of safety and cost is self-evident.

According to the rumor about Tesla's battery supply in the past year, LiFePO4 battery is only a temporary option for Tesla. In Tesla's battery plan, lithium-ion is the leading role.

Reducing cost, improving safety and charging speed are the main directions of Tesla's battery plan.

However, in 2021, cobalt free batteries with higher energy density than LiFePO4 appear. According to foreign media electek previously reported that some Tesla models will use LG Chemical's high nickel Quad batteries. By increasing the proportion of nickel in the battery and reducing the amount of cobalt, the cost of the power battery can be reduced.

Part of the reason Tesla continues to bet on lithium-ion batteries is the high energy density of lithium-ion batteries, but there are also problems with lithium iron phosphate batteries. In fact, the energy density of lithium iron phosphate batteries has reached the ceiling, which is unacceptable for new energy vehicle leaders like Tesla.

According to tiger olfactory, in the future, Tesla will adopt lithium ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries on a large scale. Among them, the middle and low-end models will use lithium iron phosphate batteries for a long time, while the high-end models will use ternary lithium batteries.

Some time ago, Ningde era renewed its three-year supply agreement with Tesla. According to the aforementioned sources, in addition to lithium iron phosphate batteries, Ningde times will also supply ternary lithium batteries to Tesla. This means that, while maintaining the supply of Panasonic and LG Chemical ternary lithium batteries, Tesla's demand for ternary lithium batteries is still growing.

But for Tesla, LiFePO4 is always just a spare tire. The ternary lithium battery will be abandoned in a few years. All solid state battery is the future.

But these are the words of the future. After the price of model y dropped to less than 300000 yuan, my worries about Xiaopeng, BYD and GAC EA increased.



TeslaTesla Model y

Link to the original text:Tiger olfactory network

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