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Byte beating advertising zero growth? Turning several times the e-commerce business may not promise

via:????     time:2021/11/19 13:00:58     readed:51

???2018??2020?????????GMV????Dolphin Society 2018 and 2020 consumer e-commerce companies all year round GMV data contrast

Author: Lu Qian Qian: Liu Jia

Last night, the market came out byte the ban on the group's domestic advertising revenue stopped growth, the first financial reporter issued to the byte, the other party expressed "not coming".

However, according to the reporters, the advertising industry has slowed down by the industry's large number customers, the industry's overall factors such as the industry, the industry, etc. Data, traffic advantages, and e-commerce business this year, byte beating 2021 advertisements can still maintain at least 20% of growth. The first financial economy will be identified in terms of bytes, as of the press release.

Education industry orders are no longer, as well as advertising industry regulatory policies, is not only bytes to jump a company. In Baidu Third Quarter Financial Report, Baidu Chief Strategy Government Yu Zhengzheng said that the impact of advertising business is mainly due to the negative impact of teaching, real estate, home improvement, travel, etc., has a negative impact in the epidemic, and has higher uncertainty in the fourth quarter. The income may continue to slow down, but still more than 60% in the group's total revenue. Baidu advertising revenue in this quarter increased by 6% year-on-year, an increase of 2% from the previous month, recorded 19.5 billion yuan, and the year-on-year growth rate of 27% and 18%, respectively.

Tencent's financial report in the third quarter of 2021 shows that the company's online advertising business revenue increased by 5% to 22.5 billion yuan, down 1% from the previous month. Despite the weak demand for advertising, insurance and games, but the steady demand of advertisers such as consumer goods and Internet services, as well as advertising revenue contributions to the merchant car, still promoted the growth of advertising revenue.

Dolphin society founded, E-commerce analyst Li Chengdong said that in the 2021 byte be jumped, the income increased yet, he ridiculed that Tencent advertisements have risen, and the byte e-commerce is booming. Remove, the remaining advertising business zero growth, this is possible.

Last year bytes held internal meeting, in the forecast of more than 5 billion yuan of business layout, the internal personnel of the byte proposed three aspects - content consumption, search business, e-commerce advertising business.

Specifically, byte prediction in 2021, the search business will have a growth space of 30-5 billion, reaching an annual income of 50-10 billion; content consumption annual income is about 10 billion; while e-commerce advertising needs to be specifically based on jam shop Whether the pattern can be made, can't do it in one year, the income will be billions. Once made, the driving of the e-commerce advertising will be large. Previously, the shake advertisement mainly competes for advertising shares from long video platforms, and enters the byte advertisement of imports of e-commerce business rights, and competes for the business of Ali Mom.

The support of e-commerce, the byte is steadily advanced from last year, especially to build a live inter-loop, no longer carry out the third-party e-commerce platform, the number of businessmen, the number of merchants, the number of merchants in 50 days, increased by 20 days after closed loop There are about 10,000, then slowly "Tmall" upgrade.

Li Chengdong said to the first financial reporter that a very important part of the company's advertising revenue is the e-commerce advertising business, and 2021 byte beating e-commerce advertising revenue will increase by four to five times. In 2018, I have just entered the e-commerce market, and its e-commerce business monthly transaction volume has exceeded 80 billion, and the dolphin society organizes consumption e-commerce GMV data. The Byte E-commerce is 15 billion in 2018, and 2020 The numbers have risen to 150 billion. Alibaba's e-commerce market share has fallen from 66% in 2018 to 56% in 2020, and the decline in two years has reached 10%.

Li Chengdong believes that with the rise of the e-commerce e-commerce, Ali market share may further fall below 50% in 2021. "The growth of China's e-commerce market has dropped to 20% this year, that is, the entire incremental market is 2 trillion. Two increments of shake and fast hands account for half of them, and consider speaking a lot and Jingdong. Growth, actually Ali can maintain it very difficult. "

Therefore, in the prediction, the Dolphin Society combines the latest industry data, estimates that the transaction volume in September is 80 billion in September, and 2021 is expected to exceed 800 billion, a year-on-year increase of 430%. The total transaction volume of Ali platform is 811.9 billion in 2020, the growth rate is small this year, so the raw e-commerce will reach the size of 10% of Ali. The most straightforward effect is the most straightforward, and only about 250 billion, and the hanging e-commerce has been close to Tmall.

Another industry person who was shake the same track said that the company's internal rough judgment, this year's byte beating completed 80 billion GMV, the problem of the e-commerce, the strategy of "big water", Its traffic is unmodorated by similar products, and the gap between the absolute value of the day is also placed there.

Although there is no clear fixed-calculation formula between GMV and e-commerce advertising revenue, referring to Alibaba's 2020 year's advertising revenue, as well as GMV of $ 7.053 trillion in fiscal year, this ratio is approximately 3%, rough estimation 80 billion GMV will bring about 24 billion e-commerce advertisements. The industry's previous estimated byte beating is 15 billion advertising revenue from the education industry. It is more than 25 billion main targets in 2021. At present, at least the growth of e-commerce advertisements is enough to fill the lack of education industry orders.

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