Sina Technology Beijing time on December 31st news, according to reports, less than 4 years ago, when Apple stock market value exceeded 10 trillion US dollars, the high point of technology stocks seems to have come. Standing there, who can think of this redefined consumer technology can be within easy reach of 3 trillion US dollars at the end of 2021.
During this period, the history of technology investment will be loaded: Under the support of an unusual financial environment, a long-term growth market is ushered in a climax because of an epidemic.
But the gains in 2021 are not uniform. Some areas (such as e-commerce) began to cool down after 2020 redness, and some science stars (such as Zoom and Peloton) have been heavy in the early days of the epidemic. However, from the whole, the growth is still the main base of the entire market, and the giants' gains are especially prominent.
But whether it continues this gain in 2022, it is another problem. In a long time, digital technology will still play an increasingly important role in economic life, and regulators have not taken any measures to kill the most powerful technology platform. However, the Dongfeng that promotes a round of development in the technology industry has been getting more and more, and many disadvantages make it more difficult for next year.
12 months ago, the five major science and technology giants (Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Facebook) are expected to increase their total battalion this year. Similar situations have also occurred in 2022. However, the actual situation in 2021 is far better than forecast: When the final data will be announced next month, the annual general camline of the five major science and technology giants is expected to reach 27%. The recovery of digital advertising, the demand of emerging technology products, the sharp increase in cloud computing and other digital service spending, is far better than forecasting.
Such strong performance boosts the stock price of the scientific giants. The five companies have increased by $ 2.7 billion this year, and the increase of 36%. Although 55% rebound brought about from the epidemic last year, it is still ahead of the 30% increase in Standard & Poor's 500 index.
In the face of the more challenging market situation and financial environment, such income and market value growth trends are difficult to continue. Low inflation and the gentle monetary policy that are accompanied by the technology industry have brought the gospel. This aspect is infused into a large amount of funds into the market, pushing the valuation; on the other hand, the bond yield is lowered, which reduces the discount rate used to assess future profit streams. As the interest rate rises, the valuation of growth companies will inevitably be impacted, after all, their best year has not arrived.
The problem now is: How many future conditions have been reflected in the current market? The random interest rate hike is expected to make the high growth software stocks fell by one quarter after early November, followed by the next half of December, and some lost land was returned.
With the raising of the border, many areas of the technology industry will also face the challenge of growth slowdown. Last year's e-commerce prosperity in the last quarter made the US online shopping sales surged 38%. In contrast, this year's growth may only be barely reach two digits.
At the same time, the underlying needs are increasingly difficult to assess. How many changes have been made to the number of consumers? If the epidemic is alleviated, how do they restore the original work and entertainment?
Enterprises that increase digital spending seems unlikely to go back. But if they put into technology expenses in advance in order to spend the crisis, it will eaten future expenses. Enterprises have experienced a significant change in workflow during the epidemic, they may think that they are bored, it is difficult to deal with too much change, and then slow down the transition.
Despite this, the long-term fundamental trend seems to be strong: the epidemic situation is aware of the need to improve business flexibility through reforms, and cloud computing has just begun to infiltrate the old IT process, and e-commerce only accounts for about 15% of the total retail total retail. .
This has left a sufficient space for long-term growth. But experienced recent sharp rise, plus the future prospects of the future, and the probability of the technology stock once again ushered in the harvest year.