Financial Press, June 21 (Editor Xia Junxiong) Tuesday (June 21) local time, Tesla CEO Musk said that the US economy decline is no available, and it is likely to happen in the near future.
Musk participated in the Qatar Economic Forum held at Doha on Tuesday. He said in an interview: "(American economy) decline is inevitable at some moment. As for whether it will decline recently, this is very likely." Musk added: "This is not sure, but it seems more likely to happen."
This is not the first time Musk has sang the US economy for the first time. As early as two weeks ago, he told Tesla executives through internal emails that he had a very bad premonition for the economy. For this reason, he decided to suspend Tesla's global recruitment worldwide recruitment. And about 10%of the layoffs.
Due to the high inflation in the United States, the previously announced CPI continued to reach a new high of more than 40 years. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates at 75 basis points at the interest rate conference last week. This is the largest single rate hike since the central bank since 1994.
Wall Street issued early warnings
As the Fed's continued tightening monetary policy has caused concerns about the decline of the US economy, Wall Street has warned the US economic prospects.
Goldman Sachs pointed out in a research report on Monday that they believe that the US economy will enter a decline of 30%next year, higher than the previous 15%. If you avoid recession next year, the probability of falling into a recession in the second year is 25%.
Bank of America earlier predicts that due to the impact of the tightening of the financial environment, by the second half of 2023, the growth rate of US GDP will slow to a close level. Although the risk of economic recession in the United States this year is relatively low, the possibility of decline will be 40%from next year.
Compared with Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, Morgan Chase's predictions are more aggressive.
Xiaomo believes that the possibility of the US economy decline is as high as 85%. The reason is that the S & P 500 index has fallen by more than 20%from high points and entered the "technical bear market", which is often a scene when economic recession. Morgan Chase pointed out that in the past 11 economic recessions in the United States, the S & P 500 index fell 26%average.