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Too sudden! The United States is clamping down again

via:新浪科技     time:2022/8/14 23:01:37     readed:87

After the darkest moment at the beginning of the year, the semiconductor industry, which has attracted much attention from the market, recently staged a "return of the king". As of Aug. 12, the Shenwan Semiconductor Index had rebounded more than 32% from its April low of 3,792, according to Wind data.

The immediate catalyst for the surge in the semiconductor index was the Chip and Science Act passed in the U.S. On August 12th America's Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) struck again, disclosing in the Federal Register a new temporary final rule on export restrictions in areas such as advanced semiconductors and turbine engines.

The ban imposes new export controls on EDA/ECAD software necessary for integrated circuits with GAAFET (surround gate field-effect transistor) structures, ultra-wide bandgap semiconductor materials represented by diamond and gallium oxide, and four technologies, including pressure gain combustion (PGC).

According to the BIS announcement, export controls on gallium oxide, diamond and pressure-gain combustion technologies will take effect from August 15, and export controls on ECAD software will take effect 60 days from August 15.

01

Advanced technology is limited

First, EDA/ECAD refers to electronic computer-aided software used to design, analyze, optimize, and verify the performance of integrated circuits or printed circuit boards. As early as August 3, Core intelligence news reported that "the United States will cut off the GAAFET technology related EDA tools to China" news. The announcement of the ban also further corroborates the news.

EDA is an indispensable tool for modern chip design, and it is the key industrial software that is most easily "jammed". Once EDA, the industrial chain foundation of problems, the entire integrated circuit industry will be affected. From 2018 to 2020, the growth rate of China's EDA market revenue scale is much higher than the global growth rate in the same period, but the localization rate is low, mainly due to the late start of domestic EDA manufacturers, Chinese EDA manufacturers have personnel shortage, ecological incomplete, backward technology and other problems. However, with the increasing attention of the country to industrial software, especially EDA, and the increasing support of the capital market for EDA, domestic EDA manufacturers are expected to face rapid development, and the localization rate will steadily increase from 2018 to 2020. According to the Core Research Institute data, in 2020 domestic EDA enterprises have reached 49, as of December 30, 2021, there have been 4 domestic enterprises to apply for IPO, among which, Concept Lun electronics has been listed, the industry is growing.

As the successor of FinFET, GAAFET is considered to be the key technology for the mass production of semiconductors of 3nm and below. In late June, Samsung announced the first mass production of a 3nm process based on GAAFET technology. The 3nm currently in mass production by TSMC is still based on FinFET technology, and it is expected that GAAFET technology will be introduced at 2nm.

In other words, the U.S. ban will limit the export of EDA software to China, which can be used in the design of advanced semiconductor process chips of 3nm and below. The move will limit the breakthrough of Chinese chip designers into advanced processes of 3nm and below.

As for the widegap semiconductor materials gallium oxide (Ga2O3) and diamond (including SiC) : Gallium nitride and SiC are the main materials for the production of complex microwave, millimeter wave devices or high-power semiconductor devices, with the potential to fabricate more complex devices that can withstand higher voltages or temperatures.

At present, silicon carbide and gallium nitride are represented by compound semiconductors, which will play a role that traditional silicon devices cannot achieve in the future applications of high power, high temperature and high pressure. Especially in the automobile, one of the three emerging application areas in the future (automotive, 5G and iot), there will be a very broad development prospect. However, gallium oxide has a wider band gap than silicon carbide and gallium nitride, making this compound semiconductor a unique advantage for higher power applications.

Compared with silicon materials, gallium nitride, silicon carbide, etc., diamond semiconductor materials have the advantages of having the highest thermal conductivity and the highest bulk material mobility in nature, which can meet the needs of high power, strong electric field and radiation resistance in the future, and is an ideal material for making power semiconductor devices. It has a broad application prospect in smart grid, rail transit and other fields.

We can see that the United States continues to suppress our chip field, the only way to fight is to accelerate the process of domestic semiconductor industry.

02

Domestic substitution is expected to accelerate

The global semiconductor industry competition has begun, which is expected to stimulate China's semiconductor industry to accelerate the process of localization.

Soochow Securities believes that EDA tool chain is longer, compared with the three giants that have completed the coverage of the whole field, domestic EDA just started, respectively from different fields, mainly to provide part of the field of the whole process or point tool products, the future alternative space is vast. Suggestions to pay attention to the product has its own characteristics, is gradually replacing the overseas products have applied for the IPO of four EDA companies: Huada Jiutian (has been listed), Concept Lun electronics (has been listed), Guangli micro, Si Er Xin.

Huatai Securities said that according to Yole, in the downstream applications of gallium nitride power devices in 2021, consumer electronics accounted for 63.2%, mainly consumer fast charging applications, mainly due to the current gallium nitride device technology constraints, it is difficult to achieve high power scenario applications above 10KW and 1200V. Taking new energy vehicles as an example, they are mostly used in low-power scenarios such as DCDC and OBC, which are difficult to be applied in motor controllers. However, it can be seen that scientific research institutions, universities and companies at home and abroad are making attempts in device structure (multi-channel structure, vertical PIN structure, etc.). We believe that gallium nitride power devices are expected to gradually expand their application prospects in higher power scenarios such as servers, new energy vehicle main drives, and photovoltaic inverters in the future. SiC/GaN related domestic listed targets include: Tianyue advanced, Star half guide, Times electric, SAN An photoelectric and so on.

Zheshang Securities pointed out that diamond is one of the most promising new generation semiconductor materials. Its thermal conductivity and bulk material mobility are the highest in nature, and it has great application potential in the field of power semiconductor devices. At present, countries all over the world are stepping up the research and development of diamond in the field of semiconductor. Among them, Japan has successfully developed the mass production method of ultra-high purity 2-inch diamond wafer, whose storage capacity is equivalent to 1 billion Blu-ray discs. With THE SPEEDING UP OF PROMOTING THE KEY TECHNOLOGICAL BREAKTHROUGHS IN China, FUNCTIONAL DIAMOND MATERIALS WILL transform FROM laboratory stage to commercialization. We believe that synthetic diamond is not only for cultivating diamond, but also is expected to cut into the next generation semiconductor materials.

Zheshang Securities is optimistic about the following four stocks: (1) Zhongbing Hongjian: global diamond cultivation + industrial diamond double leading, high temperature and high pressure +CVD at the same time, performance flexibility; (2) Sifang Da: the future star of CVD diamond manufacturing, cooperates with Zhengzhou University to develop diamond photoelectric functional devices; (3) Yellow River Cyclone: one of the two leading enterprises of cultivating diamond + industrial diamond, the fixed addition plan has been accepted, and the development and promotion of CVD large single crystal and third-generation semiconductor have been accelerated. The historical burden has been gradually unloaded, and the performance has reversed upward; (4) Power diamond: with the rise of new talents in the industry, short-term performance increases greatly; (5) State Machinery Seiko: CVD legal person diamond making technology reserve for many years, functional diamond core technology leader.

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